[Muslim ethnic minorities make up a large part of the population of Xinjiang, and Chinese authorities have long been suspicious of their loyalties. Some hard-liners in the vast region abutting Central Asia have expressed the wish for an independent homeland, a stance strictly forbidden by Beijing, and the region has experienced sporadic terrorist attacks.]
More
than 400 “separatists” in China’s northwest Xinjiang region had been trained in
light and heavy weapons and explosive devices in Taliban training camps,
according to a paper by Wang Yaning, a lecturer at the Chinese Armed Police
Force Academy, published in the school’s journal in 2002.
“The
Taliban provides arms support for Xinjiang separatist forces,” she wrote.
These
long-standing concerns are now at the forefront for China, as it adapts to the
reality of Taliban rule in Afghanistan. The
militants’ stunning rout of the Western-backed
government in Kabul is likely to reignite debate in Beijing over its security
policy in Xinjiang, a hot-button issue that has drawn sanctions from the United States and Europe.
Muslim
ethnic minorities make up a large part of the population of Xinjiang, and
Chinese authorities have long been suspicious of their loyalties. Some
hard-liners in the vast region abutting Central Asia have expressed the wish for
an independent homeland, a stance strictly forbidden by Beijing, and the region
has experienced sporadic terrorist attacks.
[China
hosts Taliban leaders as U.S. withdraws troops from Afghanistan]
The
departure of the United States from Afghanistan also gives China an opportunity
to step into a larger role, at a time when Beijing is seeking greater
international sway. Chinese officials signaled their interest in Afghanistan’s
future late last month, when Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted senior Taliban officials in
Tianjin.
At
the meeting, Wang demanded that the Taliban sever ties with the East Turkestan
Islamic Movement (ETIM), a separatist group that Beijing has blamed for attacks
in Xinjiang, even as he said the Taliban would play an important role in
rebuilding Afghanistan.
“China
has made it very clear,” said Victor Gao, a former Chinese Foreign Ministry
official who is now a chair professor at Soochow University. “China will not
allow Afghanistan to be used by any force as a threat to China.”
China’s
fears of terrorism in Xinjiang prompted one of the most costly and criticized
policies of President Xi Jinping’s tenure. In 2017, China began a sweeping crackdown in Xinjiang, which shares land
borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Hundreds of thousands
of Uyghurs and other minorities said to be suspected of Islamist radicalization
were thrown into detention camps without trials, including women and the
elderly.
The
indiscriminate nature of the detentions raised alarms around the world,
especially as detainees’ testimonies of torture trickled out. The United
States said the program meets the definition of “genocide,”
and imposed sanctions on a long list of Xinjiang-made products.
China
has quietly eased up parts of its Xinjiang program, even as it has vociferously
defended the crackdown as necessary for counterterrorism.
[Afghanistan’s
neighbors watch warily as Taliban completes its dramatic takeover]
Now,
Beijing faces the potential of renewed radicalization to its west, and
questions of how to manage Xinjiang, a resource-rich region more than twice the
size of Texas with a population of 25 million. A renewed ramp-up of
Chinese security forces in Xinjiang would probably prompt an international
outcry, after the documented human rights abuses and ethnic discrimination of
the last campaign.
China
also faces the prospect of an influx of Afghan refugees.
Claude
Rakisits, a former Australian defense official and an honorary associate
professor at the Australian National University, said China is seeking to have
more influence in Afghanistan, and could emerge as the top external player in
the country. But it’s unlikely to follow the U.S. example in a military
intervention, he said.
“They
are certainly not going to put boots on the ground,” he said. “Look at these
three, the Brits, the Russians, the Americans. They’ve all basically broke
their teeth there.”
Sean
Roberts, a George Washington University professor who studies the Xinjiang
region, said developments in Afghanistan in the coming months may test China’s
self-proclaimed strategy of staying out of other countries’ internal affairs.
If the rise of the Taliban causes protracted instability in Afghanistan or
fuels Islamist extremism in other parts of Central Asia where China has
economic interests, “the fallacy of the dichotomy between political and
economic engagement will be difficult to maintain,” Roberts said.
[U.S.,
E.U., Canada and Britain announce sanctions on China over the abuse of Uyghurs]
Chinese
officials worry about the prospect of Afghanistan becoming a haven for Islamist
militant groups, including ETIM. In 2016, Kyrgyzstan
said Uyghur militants were behind a suicide bomb attack on the Chinese
Embassy. Islamist extremists have asserted responsibility for several incidents
of violence against Chinese workers in Pakistan, and in 2017, the Chinese
Embassy in Islamabad issued a warning of “imminent
attacks” to citizens.
“This
threat is real,” said Haiyun Ma, an associate professor at Frostburg State
University who studies China’s relations with Islamic countries, though it’s
hard to ascertain whether the attacks are being driven specifically by Uyghur
militants or other groups. There hasn’t been reliable research done on how many
Uyghur militants are present in Central Asia, he noted, and it’s possible that
Chinese authorities have overestimated and exaggerated their numbers.
China
may try to offer the Taliban economic aid or international recognition in
exchange for its commitment to cut ties with ETIM — Wang, the foreign minister,
made this request explicitly at a recent meeting — but whether it can trust the
Taliban remains to be seen, experts say.
The
Taliban could restrict groups such as ETIM from attacking China or Chinese
projects, but it’s unlikely to quash them entirely or forcefully eject them
from Afghanistan, Ma said.
“It’s
really dangerous for Taliban to fight against ETIM . . .
because Taliban will lose legitimacy as a jihadist organization,” he said.
Groups like ETIM are connected to a complex network of other Islamist militants
across Central Asia, he added, and the Taliban risks infighting if it targets
one or the other.
Roberts
said the Taliban may promise China that it won’t allow Uyghur militants to
attack Chinese projects or institutions, but “it’s still a question as to
whether the Taliban can control everybody within its orbit.”
Gao,
the former Foreign Ministry official, said China will be happy to deal with the
Taliban if it does not lead to more radicalization in the region. But he said
there was the possibility that the Taliban may return to its practices from two
decades ago.
“China
may suffer more from radicalization in Afghanistan,” he said.
Alicia
Chen contributed to this report.
Read
more
Afghanistan’s
neighbors watch warily as Taliban completes its dramatic takeover
China
hosts Taliban leaders as U.S. withdraws troops from Afghanistan
U.S.,
E.U., Canada and Britain announce sanctions on China over the abuse of Uyghurs
