[In the latter camp were Trump’s hosts in Riyadh. More than 24 hours after U.S. networks called the election for Biden, King Salman and the influential Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sent their pro forma congratulations. They know a Democratic administration may represent a significant change in their political fortunes. Biden will probably push to both revive nuclear negotiations with Saudi arch rival Iran and ease Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign. He may also have bipartisan congressional support to drawdown U.S. support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen.]
Now
the geopolitical landscape is shifting as the world comes to terms with Trump’s defeat in last week’s U.S.
presidential election. Though a flurry of world leaders moved quickly to
congratulate Joe Biden on his win, others were more conspicuous in either their silence
or reticence.
In
the latter camp were Trump’s hosts in Riyadh. More than 24 hours after U.S.
networks called the election for Biden, King Salman and the influential Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman sent their pro forma congratulations. They know a
Democratic administration may represent a significant change in their political
fortunes. Biden will probably push to both revive nuclear negotiations with
Saudi arch rival Iran and ease Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign. He may also
have bipartisan congressional support to drawdown U.S. support for the
Saudi-led war in Yemen.
Moreover,
Biden advisers have made clear that, under his watch, the United States
will reevaluate the overall relationship with Saudi Arabia
(and, possibly, Egypt).
That includes pushing for some further actions following the killing of Saudi
dissident journalist and Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi. Trump,
whose priority remained making sure the Saudis kept buying U.S. arms, shielded
Riyadh from congressional rebuke. But Biden is expected to take a tougher line
and could extract certain public concessions, including the
release of a host of detained Saudi civil society activists.
“Issues
like arms sales, issues like human rights — there certainly will be a different
approach on that,” said Dennis Ross, a former U.S. diplomat and fellow at the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, in a recent webinar.
The
dictatorial leaders of Russia, North Korea and China had yet to publicly
comment on Biden’s victory. Though
at odds with Trump on some fronts, they have benefited from the disruption he represented on the
world stage. Biden’s return to the White House after eight years as vice
president in the Obama administration would see a reinvigoration of the U.S.’s
traditional alliances and fewer avenues for geopolitical opportunism.
“They
are going to be very unhappy,” Andrei Lankov, a professor of North Korean
studies at Kookmin University in Seoul, told my colleagues in reference to the inner circle of
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with whom Trump claimed “a special
relationship.”
Biden
may pick up where the Trump administration left off with nuclear negotiations
with the Kremlin, but will seek to more aggressively stand up to Russia’s
perceived interference in elections and conflicts elsewhere. “Moscow sees
downsides to a Biden presidency, including his expected re-engagement with
NATO,” wrote my colleague Isabella Khurshudyan. “Biden also has
signaled harsher measures, perhaps in the form of more sanctions, for Russia’s
interference in Western democracies.”
“We
expect a massive toughening of the stance towards Russia,” a high-ranking
western diplomat in Washington told the Financial Times. “There is a hatred for Russia
amongst [Biden’s team] that is really amazing. It’s not just rational; it’s
also very emotional.”
Biden
has announced a plan to host a “Summit for Democracy” soon after taking office. It would bring together numerous
“like-minded nations” in a bid to bolster what many experts see as the flagging
fortunes of liberal democracy in parts of the world. Whether that initiative
succeeds or not, it’s a sign that a Biden administration would eschew Trump’s
coddling of demagogues and illiberal nationalists.
Among
the list of those likely left in the cold are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu — one of Trump’s closest foreign allies; Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, whose corruption scandals at home and misadventures in
Syria Trump appeared to disregard; and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban,
who has mocked the “moral imperialism” of American liberals.
Trump’s
envoy in Budapest defended Orban’s creeping authoritarianism and
crackdowns on civil society and independent universities. The Hungarian leader
may be out of luck with Biden.
“Trump’s
presidency meant unconditional support from Washington,” Peter Kreko, director
of the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute, told my colleagues. “I think a Joe Biden
administration would be much tougher on Hungary, on democratic backsliding and
corruption related to Chinese and Russian investments, where Trump just looked
away.”
For
Netanyahu, who is again leading a government plunged in domestic political
turmoil, Biden’s ascension may narrow his scope for provocative action. The Israeli prime
minister was a vocal opponent of the Obama administration’s overtures to Iran.
In the months that remain before Biden’s inauguration, the Trump
administration, backed by the Saudis, Israelis and Emiratis, may ratchet up
punitive measures on Tehran to make Biden’s path toward rapprochement even more
difficult.
Of
course, it’s still too early to gauge how dramatic a change Biden will
represent. His moderate
politics and establishment bonafides will reassure some jittery allies, but unnerve others. He still has to contend with trouble at
home: In Washington, after all, the election is not even a settled matter, with
Senate Republicans lining up behind Trump’s effort to contest the results on
baseless allegations of fraud
That
lingering crisis is feeding into politics elsewhere. Trump-era conspiracy
theories have already crossed the Atlantic and inflamed corners of Europe’s far right. Speaking to Today’s
WorldView during a webinar Monday, Célia Belin of the Brookings Institution
suggested the “sense of victimhood” some of the continent’s alienated
ultranationalists may feel is now getting “reflected in the plight of Trump at
the moment.”
Though
Trump grasps at straws in his bid to keep power, he was backed by more than 70
million American voters. “This election was not a full rejection of Trumpism,”
said Belin, adding that it sent a message that “nationalist populist movements
have strength.” And they may gain more strength after Biden enters the White
House.
Read
more:
Biden
beat Trump. But can he bring about a restoration?
Away
from U.S. election fever, coronavirus rages on
