[Despite early predictions that the country’s economy would become an electoral liability for Mr. Modi, exit polls this week after the close of voting indicate that the Congress party’s showing might not improve much from that devastating low. Even the most restrained polls have Mr. Modi returning to power for five more years, either as part of a broader coalition or in a majority government by his Bharatiya Janata Party and its partners.]
By Mujib Mashal and Hari Kumar
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featuring Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Indian National Congress, at a rally in
New
Delhi this month. The party dominated national politics until it was crushed in
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2014 election. Credit Money Sharma/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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NEW
DELHI — For much of India’s
history since independence from British rule, the Indian National Congress
dominated the country’s political scene. Even when its decline began, the party
still maintained power. After all, it was the party of towering independence
leaders like Mohandas Gandhi.
Then came Narendra Modi, helping sweep the
opposition to a resounding victory in 2014. Congress, with just 8 percent of
the seats in Parliament, was crushed.
Five years and much soul-searching later,
indications from the latest parliamentary elections suggest that India’s
once-dominant powerhouse will have to lower its ambitions of returning to its
old glory anytime soon.
Despite early predictions that the country’s
economy would become an electoral liability for Mr. Modi, exit polls this week
after the close of voting indicate that the Congress party’s showing might not
improve much from that devastating low. Even the most restrained polls have Mr.
Modi returning to power for five more years, either as part of a broader
coalition or in a majority government by his Bharatiya Janata Party and its
partners.
The Congress party’s attempted rebound has
been complicated not just by Mr. Modi’s enduring appeal — Indian stocks rose on
his favorable exit polls — but also by smaller regional parties that are
fighting intensely for a larger share of the political pie.
Zoya Hasan, a political scientist and
professor emeritus at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, said that while the
Congress party had hoped for a strong showing it could rebuild around, it could
be years before it is anywhere near as strong as it was after its last
electoral victory in 2009, when it won 38 percent of the contestable seats in
Parliament.
“I would not conclude that it is impossible
for the Congress to come back,” Ms. Hasan said, “although in this election it
seems unlikely.”
Any gains the Congress party does make are
likely to be because of disappointment in Mr. Modi’s economic policies. Farmers
have suffered, and Mr. Modi has struggled to create jobs as unemployment rates
rise.
His time in office has also been marked by
the rise of Hindu nationalism threatening the diverse nation’s fragile fault
lines.
The Congress party has long cast itself as
embracing India’s diverse population, particularly Muslims and other minority
groups that Mr. Modi’s party, known as the B.J.P., continues to alienate. In
its campaign manifesto this year, the party appealed to those who have
struggled economically under Mr. Modi, promising cash transfers to the poorest
20 percent and waivers of small loans to farmers.
Much of the work of rebuilding the party
rests on the shoulders of Rahul Gandhi, the 48-year-old Congress president who
is the fourth generation of the Nehru-Gandhi family to lead the party.
His great-grandfather, Jawaharlal Nehru, was
the first prime minister of independent India and had a large hand in shaping
the republic. Both his grandmother, Indira Gandhi, and his father, Rajiv
Gandhi, served as prime ministers and were assassinated.
Rahul Gandhi has been slow in making his own
mark on a party that has lost its way, and he took the reins in 2017 at a
particularly demoralizing time.
Mr. Modi had handed the party its most
humiliating defeat three years earlier by playing up its various corruption scandals.
The party leadership came off as weak and lacking direction.
But Congress regained some energy last
December when it won elections in three states considered bellwethers for this
year’s parliamentary contests. It was a sign that perhaps Mr. Modi’s popularity
had faded, creating an opportunity that the Congress party could exploit. Mr.
Gandhi, along with his sister Priyanka, has been zigzagging the country trying
to do just that.
Mr. Gandhi is seen here as a mostly likable
figure even if his softer personality can make him come across as a lightweight
compared with Mr. Modi. So on the campaign trail, Mr. Gandhi tried to adjust by
relentlessly focusing on Mr. Modi’s weaknesses, particularly the economy.
But he also acknowledged that Congress is not
in the same position it was before, though it is trying to present itself as a
party that can heal divisions.
“Change requires a transition. You can’t just
suddenly turn around, snap your fingers and expect change. There’s a transition
underway in the Congress,” Mr. Gandhi said last week in an interview with
Outlook India.
“As an organization, the Congress has a deep
connect with India. Yes, we are chaotic, but we listen — even to our
opponents,” he said, adding that the B.J.P. and its allies “don’t listen; they
think they know the answer.”
Mr. Gandhi is up against a dominating prime
minister with a strong cult of personality. Mr. Modi is a powerful orator,
promoting his narrative as a self-made man who rose to the top from modest
beginnings as a tea seller.
In contrast, Mr. Gandhi, who studied in the
United States and Britain, is seen by some as the face of the elitism
associated with his party. Mr. Modi and the B.J.P. mercilessly fan the
perception that Congress leaders are disconnected from the public.
“Whenever there is a crisis in the country,
Rahul moves to Italy,” Yogi Adityanath, a Modi protégé who is the chief
minister of India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, said at a recent
campaign rally. (Mr. Gandhi’s mother, the longtime Congress leader Sonia
Gandhi, was born Italian.)
Among potential voters, the perception of the
Congress party as a family enterprise lacking vision has stuck. Among the
country’s Hindu majority, the party has struggled to shed its image of
appeasing minority groups, such as Muslims, at their expense — which fits right
into Mr. Modi’s narrative as a champion of Hindu nationalism. In response, Mr.
Gandhi has been seen frequenting more Hindu temples.
With exit polls predicting another term for
Mr. Modi, many have accused the Congress party of focusing on its own recovery
rather than working with other parties to defeat him.
“It’s a blue-eyed party that has never worked
at the grass-roots level,” Sonu Agarwal, a 46-year-old gym owner in the city of
Lucknow, said of Congress. “It is self-serving.”
Even among voters leaning toward Congress
this time, many said it was less because of what the party offered and more out
of fear of how intolerant Mr. Modi’s politics has made India.
“I don’t love them,” said Preea Kumar, a
communications professional from Mumbai, said of the Congress party. “It’s just
that they are a better choice today if we wish to remain a secular, democratic
country.”
Complicating the party’s hopes of returning
to its old strength is that its decline has coincided with the rise of smaller
regional parties.
In 2014, those parties together won about
half of the popular vote and 40 percent of the total seats in Parliament.
Congress won only seven seats more than the top regional party, making it more
of a leading small party than a coequal power with the B.J.P.
Much of the decline of the Congress party and
the rise to power of the B.J.P. is attributed to mistakes made by Mr. Gandhi’s
grandmother, Indira Gandhi.
She alienated senior party members, who saw
her as an entitled dynast and left to join the opposition that subsequently
became the B.J.P. The Congress party criticizes Mr. Modi today as acting
increasingly authoritarian, but Mrs. Gandhi was the first and only Indian prime
minister to declare a state of emergency, dissolve Parliament and jail her
opponents.
A.K. Verma, a retired professor at Chatrapati
Shahu Ji Maharaj University in Kanpur, said Rahul Gandhi had made a populist
pitch in the recent campaign, highlighting a B.J.P. corruption scandal and
promising voters jobs and a minimum income.
But he has struggled to connect with the
public in a way that could reverse his party’s fortunes.
“I do not feel very significant trust in
Rahul’s appeal to the people,” Mr. Verma said. “The most dangerous thing for
the top leadership is when people do not take you seriously.”
Suhasini Raj and Jeffrey Gettleman
contributed reporting.
