NARENDRA MODI COULD MAKE OR BREAK OBAMA’S CLIMATE LEGACY

[India embodies a critical tension that will play out in Paris between developed nations like the United States, which are calling for universal emissions cuts, and developing nations like India, which say they deserve to increase fossil fuel use as their economies grow or else receive billions of dollars to make the transition to cleaner energy.]

By Coral Davenport and Ellen Barry

Modi and Obama at ClimateTalks

BOURGET, France — Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power, President Obama has not missed many opportunities to convey what a warm rapport he has forged with the Indian leader.

There was the admiring essay about Mr. Modi that Mr. Obama wrote in Time magazine, and the image of them tête-à-tête at the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial in Washington, their entourages left behind. Mr. Obama’s national security adviser said the two men had “chemistry” and expressed confidence that American interests made it “worth the investment in the relationship.”

Exactly how much that investment has paid off will become clear this week during the climate negotiations on the outskirts of Paris, where India, the world’s third-largest greenhouse gas polluter, has emerged as a pivotal player in shaping the outcome of a deal on which Mr. Obama hopes to build his legacy — or whether a deal emerges at all. So far, Indian negotiators have publicly staked out an uncompromising position.

India embodies a critical tension that will play out in Paris between developed nations like the United States, which are calling for universal emissions cuts, and developing nations like India, which say they deserve to increase fossil fuel use as their economies grow or else receive billions of dollars to make the transition to cleaner energy.

After Mr. Modi met Mr. Obama on Monday — their sixth meeting in 14 months — he told reporters that the two leaders had “such a deep relationship that we are able to openly discuss all issues,” and he said that he was happy to work “shoulder to shoulder with the United States.”

But in an earlier speech on Monday, Mr. Modi said climate change was not India’s fault, and blamed instead “the prosperity and progress of an industrial age powered by fossil fuel.”

“But we in India face its consequences today,” he said.

That India has positioned itself as the champion of developing nations is no great surprise, based on past climate talks. But Mr. Modi, who wrote an e-book presenting the moral case for action on climate change, had been seen by American policy makers as a leader who might break that pattern.

“I think Obama got carried away with Modi, frankly,” said Jairam Ramesh, a leader of the opposition Indian National Congress party, who served as minister of the environment under the previous government. Mr. Modi has made one major breakthrough in talks with Mr. Obama, Mr. Ramesh said, committing “against the advice of everyone in the system” to limit the use of hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, a component in refrigerators and air-conditioners. Since then, he said, India’s negotiators have returned to their familiar, confrontational manner.

“India is not an easy country to negotiate with,” Mr. Ramesh said. “We are moralistic, we are argumentative, we are regressive. It has gone back to the old rhetoric, there is no doubt about it.”

India was the last major economy to submit its plans for a domestic climate change policy ahead of the Paris talks. And the proposal, while it included a significant expansion of renewable energy, would also see India’s carbon pollution triple in the coming decades. Indian officials have painted that projection as a concession, saying that in a business-as-usual situation, their emissions would soar at an even higher rate.

Leaders in New Delhi argue that limiting coal use would cripple the economy and harm a population struggling to escape poverty, including 300 million Indians who live without electricity. They also say India has done little to contribute to the problem of global warming: India’s annual per capita carbon dioxide emissions are 1.7 tons, compared with 16.6 tons per person in the United States and 7.4 tons per person in China.

During the climate change talks, India is expected to challenge the United States on three counts: to speed up emissions reductions by wealthy countries to compensate for emissions growth in poor countries, to pay more to poor countries to assist in mitigation plans, and to provide clean-energy technology to poor countries.

Ashley Tellis, a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Mr. Obama had “tried hard” to persuade Mr. Modi to shift India off those more hard-line negotiating positions ahead of the climate talks, “but failed.”

“I still think that if the U.S. position comes to enjoy a strong consensus in Paris, India will not come in the way, but this acquiescence will materialize only at the last moment,” Mr. Tellis said. He said that Mr. Obama, in his talks with Mr. Modi, should have focused on the more modest goal of ensuring that India would not block a consensus.

The administration quickly disputed that contention.

“In our view, it has been very clear from Prime Minister Modi’s messages, including in his meeting with the president today, that India is committed to an ambitious Paris agreement that protects the planet while promoting the development and growth of countries like India,” said a White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the negotiations were in progress.

Knowing Mr. Modi’s position, the Obama administration has been working to reduce the tensions with India and the developing world without significantly increasing taxpayer spending.

In a move that appeared explicitly intended to win India’s cooperation in Paris, Bill Gates, the Microsoft founder and billionaire philanthropist, joined the Obama administration to create what is being called the largest public-private coalition for funding renewable energy. The coalition has the cooperation of 20 countries, including the United States and India, which have pledged to double their funding of renewable energy research, and it will feature a renewable energy research fund paid for by 28 billionaire philanthropists, including two prominent Indian businessmen.

The plans for the fund came together after the French president, François Hollande, who is deeply invested in the success of the Paris talks, invited Mr. Gates and Mr. Modi to meet on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September. As Mr. Obama has tried to find ways to bring Mr. Modi into a deal, his officials have worked closely with Mr. Gates.

Mr. Hollande in the meantime worked with Mr. Modi on another initiative: a 121-nation solar energy alliance, which Mr. Modi unveiled Monday in the conference’s Indian pavilion.

Some analysts caution against overreacting to India’s negotiating postures — or, for that matter, its projections for expansion in its coal sector, which is dogged by corruption and inefficiency.

“We’re seeing them put forth their national interest, but you’re also seeing a willingness to negotiate,” said Jennifer Morgan, an expert on international climate change negotiations with the World Resources Institute, a research organization. “They’re staking out the priorities for their country. They know they’re not going to get everything they need, but they’re going to fight hard. This is classic positioning.”.

Ms. Morgan predicted that India would engage in hard-line brinkmanship into overtime sessions of the climate talks, but that ultimately Mr. Modi does not want a deal to collapse.

Some Indian leaders expressed concern that India’s contributions to climate efforts could be eclipsed by the negotiators’ adversarial tone. “I really believe that Modi wants to be remembered as the person who turned India green,” said Anand Mahindra, the chairman of the Mahindra Group, who has joined an international group of corporate leaders calling for carbon pricing at the talks.

“He is trying to take the lead as a green warrior,” he said of Mr. Modi. “He is being held back by this old reflexive rhetoric.”

Mr. Mahindra may be an outlier, though. Domestic audiences, on both the right and the left, are eager to see Mr. Modi and his environment minister, Prakash Javadekar, demonstrate influence in the international arena by standing up to pressure from Europe and the United States and demanding financing for green energy.

India’s major newspapers carried editorials on Monday from prominent figures urging negotiators to stand their ground, even at the cost of being labeled obstructionists or spoilers.

“The more criticism India comes under in Paris, the more applause Javadekar will get in Parliament and elsewhere,” said Mr. Ramesh, the former environment minister. “This is the dichotomy of the situation.”

Coral Davenport reported from Le Bourget, and Ellen Barry from New Delhi.

@ The New York Times