[In a statement, Indian’s foreign ministry claimed that airstrikes near Balakot in northern Pakistan had struck “the biggest training camp” of Jaish-e-Mohammad, the group that claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing, killing a “very large number” of militants as they were planning another attack.]
By
Maria Abi-Habib
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Pakistan
released this photo on Tuesday, which it said showed minor damage in a
forested
area from Indian airstrikes. Pakistan denied India’s claim that it had
inflicted
heavy casualties on a militant group Credit
Agence
France-Presse — Getty Images
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NEW
DELHI — For the first time
in five decades, Indian warplanes crossed into Pakistan and conducted
airstrikes on Tuesday. But in the jarring escalation of hostilities, the
leadership of each nuclear-armed country also appeared to leave itself a way
out of pushing the conflict into war.
In India, where election-year nationalism is
fueling waves of anger over the militant attack in Kashmir that killed dozens
of soldiers this month, the story line was of righteous vengeance accomplished.
“We won’t let this country bow down!” Prime
Minister Narendra Modi told a charged rally in New Delhi, speaking in front of
a backdrop with the photos of the Indian soldiers killed by a suicide bomber.
In a statement, Indian’s foreign ministry
claimed that airstrikes near Balakot in northern Pakistan had struck “the
biggest training camp” of Jaish-e-Mohammad, the group that claimed
responsibility for the suicide bombing, killing a “very large number” of
militants as they were planning another attack.
But in Pakistan, where the domestic tone has
been one of fatigue over enduring economic crisis and political ennui, the
country’s military command insisted that India’s air incursion had achieved
nothing.
Prime Minister Imran Khan promised a response
to the strikes, which he dismissed as a political ploy by Mr. Modi, carried out
for “domestic consumption” before national elections. He shrugged off Indian
claims that the airstrikes had resulted in “heavy casualties” or struck a militant
training camp, according to a statement issued by his office.
In a sign of escalating tensions, Mr. Khan
summoned the National Command Authority — the body that oversees the deployment
and management of Pakistan’s nuclear arms — for a special session on Wednesday.
The prime minister also called for Parliament to meet on Wednesday to discuss a
response.
With India claiming to have avenged the
Kashmir attack, and with Pakistan claiming that India had done no real damage,
it seemed possible that the situation could yet be defused. Still, analysts
cautioned that the crisis could erupt into something more serious if restraint
failed on either side.
Ikram Sehgal, a defense analyst with ties to
Pakistan’s national military establishment, said the country’s response to the
strikes would be “measured.” But he added, “The only question is will India’s
leadership be able to stomach it and whether we will go into a dangerous
territory of further escalation.”
Residents around Balakot, the scene of the
attack in Pakistan, said they saw no sign of any significant damage from the
airstrikes.
Pakistan’s chief military spokesman, Maj.
Gen. Asif Ghafoor, portrayed the incursion as a high-speed dip in and out by
Indian jets as they were confronted by Pakistani fighter planes. He later
posted on Twitter four images of a forested area pockmarked with small craters
and debris, which he said was the site of Indian airstrikes.
The view that little had been damaged was
supported by military analysts and two Western security officials, who said
that any militant training areas at the site, in the Pakistani province of
Khyber-Pakhtunkwha, had long since packed up or dispersed. (Earlier reports had
placed the attack in the Pakistani side of Kashmir, which is nearby.)
The suicide bombing by Jaish-e-Mohammed, on
Feb. 14 near Pulwama in Kashmir, was the deadliest in the region in decades, at
a time when a heavy Indian security presence has been trying to stamp out any
signs of insurgency in the disputed territory.
India swiftly blamed Pakistan, which has a
history of fostering militant proxies, for directing the attack. But Pakistani
officials denied that Jaish-e-Mohammed had the freedom to operate within
Pakistan. And Mr. Khan insisted that Pakistan would investigate the attack if
India offered evidence.
Through decades of tensions, Pakistan and
India have gone to war over Kashmir twice, and have pushed to the edge of it
many times. The brinkmanship has evolved into a dangerous but almost formalized
language of escalation and de-escalation over the years.
News of the strikes Tuesday sparked panic on
both sides of the border, with Indian and Pakistani residents either fleeing
their homes or stockpiling food, fearing a larger outbreak of war.
Though India and Pakistan routinely shell
each other across the Line of Control, this is the first time since the
countries’ war in 1971 that either side has confirmed sending warplanes into
the other’s airspace.
A resident of Attar Shisha village inside
Pakistan, about 2 miles from Balakot, said he was woken up by loud explosions
at about 3:15 a.m. Tuesday. He was reached by phone, and asked to remain
anonymous out of fear of reprisal by the Pakistani authorities.
The villager said that Jaish-e-Mohammed still
ran a school in Balakot, but that the airstrikes missed the facility and hit an
empty ravine instead, adding that there were no casualties he had heard of.
Across the disputed border, hundreds of
Indians fled their villages and towns scattered along the Line of Control on
Tuesday, after fearing for days that tensions would only escalate.
“We first heard the sound of aircraft
hovering above at around 2 a.m. We could not sleep,” said Imran Khatana, a
farmer from Salamabad village in Indian-controlled Kashmir. “I pushed my family
members into a bunker thinking something wrong is going to happen.”
Mr. Khatana said there had been a buildup of
Indian troops over the last few days along the border. Residents of Kashmir
rushed to markets to buy essential supplies, worried that tensions would
worsen. A major hospital in Srinagar canceled staff holidays and asked
employees to be on standby.
Balakot and its surrounding area hosted
numerous militant training camps until 2005, when a powerful earthquake struck
the area, devastating its towns and villages. As international aid groups
poured in to provide relief, militants packed up their camps and went
elsewhere, to avoid being detected, analysts say.
Some worried that the Indian incursion,
effective or not, still carried a high risk of military reprisal from Pakistan.
“The Pakistanis are bound to react,
conventionally and not through a proxy like a militant group,” said Rahul Bedi,
an analyst at the London-based Jane’s Information Group, which tracks the
defense industry. “Where they react and when is something that only Pakistanis
know.”
The American government has typically been a
broker between India and Pakistan, conducting shuttle diplomacy in similarly
heated situations. But President Trump has taken a hard line on Pakistan while
drawing closer to India since coming to office in 2017.
From China, which has traditionally supported
Pakistan in moments of international pressure, the message was studiously
neutral, calling for restraint from both sides and prioritizing the importance
of fighting terrorism.
“A sound relationship and communication serve
the interests of both countries and the stability of South Asia,” said Lu Kang,
a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Fighting against terrorism is
a global challenge, and needs international cooperation.”
India controls much of Kashmir, while
Pakistan controls a smaller part of the region, which was left in an
undetermined state after the British partition of India in 1947. It has seen
decades of violence from militants seeking independence.
In the run-up to Indian elections this
spring, and with Mr. Modi facing a fierce a re-election fight, voters have
demanded that New Delhi respond to the Kashmir attack with force against
Pakistan.
“What they hit is speculation for now — they
say they hit a terrorist camp, but a lot of intelligence sources say those
camps in Pakistan had been cleaned out in recent days,” Mr. Bedi said. “This is
more political symbolism than anything else. Mr. Modi had to show some
demonstrable action on India’s part, ahead of elections.”
Reporting was contributed by Salman Masood
from Islamabad, Pakistan; Sameer Yasir from Uri, Kashmir; Hari Kumar and
Jeffrey Gettleman from New Delhi; and Luz Ding from Beijing.
