[The tensions between Washington and Beijing range from trade to cybersecurity to military rivalry in the Pacific. And while some of those issues have simmered for years, cooperation in the fight against climate change had once been a bright spot, so much so that it propelled the creation of the landmark global agreement in Paris in 2015 to curb greenhouse gas emissions.]
By Somini Sengupta
 |
|
President
Xi Jinping and President Trump on Saturday at the G-20 summit meeting
in Buenos
Aires. CreditCreditPablo Martinez Monsivais/Associated Press
|
The tensions between Washington and Beijing
range from trade to cybersecurity to military rivalry in the Pacific. And while
some of those issues have simmered for years, cooperation in the fight against
climate change had once been a bright spot, so much so that it propelled the
creation of the landmark global agreement in Paris in 2015 to curb greenhouse
gas emissions.
When the Trump administration announced its
intention to pull out of the Paris pact altogether, rejecting the scientific
consensus that greenhouse gas emissions are warming the planet, it represented
perhaps the most consequential diplomatic reversal of the Trump era.
“The biggest threats to the planet are the
lack of U.S. climate leadership at home and the unwillingness of the U.S. to
engage with China,” said Joanna Lewis, a China specialist at Georgetown
University. “The rest of the world looks to the U.S. and China for leadership,
and it has become clear that, as the alliance has waned, global momentum to
address climate change has slowed.”
Taken together, the emissions produced by the
United States and China account for more than 40 percent of the global total.
In both countries, emissions went up this year, according to an analysis issued
this week by the Global Carbon Project in which one scientist likened the
acceleration of global emissions to “a speeding freight train.”
That fact hovers over Katowice, the Polish
city where the United Nations is leading two weeks of talks to figure out how
to implement the Paris Agreement. Adding to the urgency of that meeting, the
promises made so far under the Paris pact are nowhere enough to avert the worst
effects of climate change. A United Nations scientific report issued this fall
warned that, if emissions continued to rise at the current rate, the planet
would warm so fast that it could lead to widespread food shortages, wildfires,
and floods.
It’s hard to imagine a worse time for the
world’s two behemoths — the United States, traditionally representing the rich
world in climate negotiations, and China, representing the developing countries
— to be locked in a cycle of intense distrust at the highest levels.
“The U.S.-China climate honeymoon is
definitely over. That much is very clear,” said Li Shuo, a senior policy adviser
for Greenpeace Asia, based in Beijing. “The U.S. is asking a lot but there’s
nothing that the U.S. can give. That’s the fundamental challenge.”
For China’s part — even though its emissions
have grown in the last two years, mainly because of continued coal use — the
country is on track to meet its modest, self-imposed Paris target, which is to
reach peak emissions by 2030. In fact, it appears on track to do so ahead of
schedule, according to independent analysts. It is also ramping up renewable
energy sources faster than any country in the world. The emissions intensity of
its economy, geared to manufacture goods for the rest of the world, is
declining.
At the same time though, coal plants have not
closed down as fast as some had expected. Much more worrying, China is
exporting coal technology abroad, with its powerful state-owned companies
proposing to build coal-fired power plants from Kenya to Pakistan, effectively
exporting its carbon footprint.
Now, with additional economic headwinds from
Washington, China confronts a new debate: Should it continue to move rapidly
from its emissions-intensive industrial economy, or should it simply slow down?
Former Vice President Al Gore, who has been
closely watching climate diplomacy, said in an interview last week that
although the trade war with the United States could slow the country’s
transition away from a heavily fossil fuel based economy, he did not think that
China would change course. Its leaders are under political pressure to clean up
the air. It is ramping up wind and solar energy sources. It is on track to be
the world’s largest electric vehicle market. Its carbon market is to come into
effect next year, though only in a handful of sectors.
“They plan their work and work their plan,”
Mr. Gore said. “I expect them to continue on the journey they mapped out
regardless of what the U.S. does.”
So far, there is no evidence that China is
reversing course. Still, the United States posture, and the concerns over a
continued slowdown of the Chinese economy give ballast to Chinese promoters of
heavy industry, some China analysts say, putting President Xi Jinping under
considerable pressure.
“People are widely concerned that this trade
dispute will lead to some unemployment,” said Zou Ji, the Beijing-based head of
the Energy Foundation of China, a group that calls on China to transition away
from fossil fuels to clean energy sources. “I feel the pace of emissions
abatement could become slower.”
Three key issues pit the United States and
China against each other in the climate negotiations, where American
negotiators are participating pending the country’s formal exit at the end of
2020.
First, the United States wants robust rules
across the board for all countries to account for their own emissions and be
subject to outside scrutiny. China insists on different reporting rules for
developing countries. China has India on its side on this demand, though not
other vulnerable poor countries, who are wary of looser rules for China.
“We are basically designing, in Katowice, a
whole set of rules that will bind China but that will not cover the United
States,” said Mr. Li of Greenpeace Asia. “It creates a fundamental sense of
unfairness in the Chinese mind.”
The rule book, as it’s called, is the
centerpiece of the Katowice negotiations, which began Monday and run through
Dec. 14.
Second, the United States, under the Trump
administration, has pulled back from helping poor countries adapt to the
ravages of climate change. China, which considers itself the leader of the
world’s developing countries, is goading the rich world to pony up — and be
held accountable for it.
And third, perhaps most importantly, the test
for China is whether, in the face of an American retreat, it will ramp up its
ambition to cut emissions in the coming years.
The consequences for the world’s 7.6 billion
people are enormous.
“It takes the pressure off of greater
ambition and faster action,” said Alex Wang, a University of California Los
Angeles law professor who follows China’s environmental policy, of the United
States-China tensions. “If you’re coming from the perspective that we’re
already way behind, then the current dynamic is bad.”
For more news on climate and the environment,
follow @NYTClimate on Twitter.
Somini Sengupta covers international climate
issues and is the author of "The End of Karma: Hope and Fury Among India's
Young." @SominiSengupta
