At a meeting
with India’s high commissioners and ambassadors to South Asian and Indian Ocean
countries last week, Sushma Swaraj said that they must continue watch Beijing’s
activities.
By Prashant Jha
Last week,
external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj held a meeting with India’s high
commissioners and ambassadors to South Asian and Indian Ocean countries on the
sidelines of the Heads of Mission Conference. She asked them to give her a
sense of Chinese activities in each of the countries. And she finally said that
they must continue to watch Beijing’s activities, pursue their own projects,
and educate neighbours on the consequences of economic engagement with China.
Issue
A key shift in
South Asia over the last decade has been China’s increasing engagement with
each country in the region. While Beijing was a close partner of Pakistan and
almost its security guarantor, the other countries --in the imagination of
Delhi’s mandarins --were within India’s sphere of influence. This has slowly
changed.
A resurgence
of nationalist sentiment in smaller neighbours; a desire to diversify relations
and play the ‘China card’ to offset the Indian influence; China’s own enhanced
capabilities and willingness to step up its economic and political engagement
with local elites in South Asian states; and India’s weaknesses in terms of
delivering on commitments as well as either reduced leverage or inability to
effectively use its levers have all come together in changing the complexion of
South Asia.
Today, Beijing
is a player in Kathmandu’s domestic politics; it is the reason the regime in
Male can diplomatically snub India; it h trapped Sri Lanka in a relationship of
economic dependence; it has become even more hegemonic in Pakistan’s polity;
and it has even compelled a section of Bhutan’s elite to consider establishing
diplomatic ties.
Significance
The context is
important. In the first three years of this government’s term, there was a
willingness to not only let contradictions with China emerge sharply but an
appetite to confront it directly. But over the past six months, India and China
have decided to lower the temperature. In Delhi, following the informal summit
in Wuhan (https://www.hindustantimes.com/editorials/wuhan-a-tale-of-extraordinary-willpower-and-realpolitik/story-
D2eDZZATvhnwSwSiWSQ3AP.html) in April, there is actually an attempt to
underplay the differences and contradictions and convince Beijing as well as
India’s own strategic community that the focus should be on the cooperative
rather than the competiti elements of the relationship.
It is in this
context that Swaraj held her meeting and formulated her threefold doctrine. The
focus on closely monitoring Chinese activities suggests that Delhi will remain
alert and not let its guard down.
The focus on
pursuing its own projects and delivering on commitments reflects a realisation
that India has natural synergies and advantages that it has not leveraged
enough. It has allowed a perception to grow that it is weak in delivery, and
this has to be corrected. The focus on educating and advising the neighbours on
possible ‘debt traps’ comes from a view that it is only through diplomacy and
the art of persuasion and working closely with governments, civil society and
media that an alternative narrative c be constructed.
Debate
Those who
advocate the current approach believe it is important to understand the gaps in
capabilities and resources between India and China; the limits of a
confrontational and ‘muscular’ approach that antagonises neighbouring elite and
only opens up space for China further; to not see this as a ‘zero-sum game’.
Instead, it is better to focus on India’s strategic redlines and ensure they
are not compromised.
Those who are
uncomfortable with this approach believe that India may actually be losing
strategic space to China in a critical neighbourhood; that it may not pose a
strategic threat just yet but the important thing to look out for is
capabilities and not current intentions. And if Beijing’s intentions become
less than benign in the future, India’s options will get squeezed. Critics also
believe that this approach will demoralise friends in the neighbouring
capitals, show there is no cost to deepening ties with China, and weaken Indian
standing and leverage further.
But for the
moment, the Indian approach is clear-- remain alert but practice restraint.
(This story is
part of our series called Policy Dive, which picks a policy issue, traces the
debate around it, the different schools of thought, and the choices involved.)
