[In July, experts warned that some of its
long-range missiles looked like intercontinental ballistic missiles — meaning
that they would have a range of more than 3,400 miles. Those fears were
confirmed Nov. 28, when North Korea tested its Hwasong-15 missile. This
enormous missile flew 54 minutes and traveled about 596 miles on a lofted
trajectory. Its likely range was 8,100 miles — which would include the entire
United States.]
By Adam Taylor and Tim Meko
Just a few years ago, North Korea's weapons
program was treated like a bad joke, better known for its duds, misfires and
fakes than its ability to threaten the United States.
But in 2017, the North Korean weapons program
stopped being funny. Instead, Pyongyang's persistent pursuit of ballistic
missile and nuclear weapons technology led to serious talk about the risk of a
devastating conflict between the United States and North Korea.
This change wasn't due to a sudden surge in
North Korean tests or a change in leader Kim Jong Un's stance. In fact, data
collected by researchers show that the number of tests in 2017 is similar to
the number last year, while the bellicose threats made against the United
States and others are consistent.
Building on decades of tests, North Korea has
made remarkable technological gains in the past year, despite diplomatic and
economic isolation. In the space of just a few months, Pyongyang conducted
tests that showed it had boosted the range of its ballistic missiles and
increased the yield of its nuclear weapons, as well as other more subtle
advances that shocked outside observers.
A
giant nuclear weapons test
North Korea tested only one nuclear weapon
this year, as opposed to two last year. However, the size of the weapon tested
Sept. 3 dwarfed all previous tests — most experts agree that the bomb's yield,
or the energy generated by the blast, was at least 140 kilotons. Some respected
analysts have even pegged it at 250 kilotons.
If the higher estimate is true, that would
mean that North Korea has a bomb almost 17 times the size of the one that was
dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in 1945. For comparison, the biggest weapon tested
by North Korea before this year was between 10 kilotons and 20 kilotons.
David Wright, co-director of the global
security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said he believes that
the Sept. 3 bomb was a “real H-Bomb” — suggesting that North Korea wasn't lying
when it said it had created a two-stage thermonuclear device shortly before
this test. If this is true, it shows that North Korea has now mastered the more
complicated technology that entered the U.S. and Soviet arsenals in the 1950s after
the first wave of nuclear weapons.
Such a device dramatically increases the
damage that could be inflicted on a city. It also could mean that North Korea's
missile systems can afford to be significantly less accurate when used in a
real-life attack because the blast itself would be so much bigger.
An
increased missile range
Although North Korea has conducted only one
nuclear test in 2017, it has conducted at least 20 missile tests.
In July, experts warned that some of its
long-range missiles looked like intercontinental ballistic missiles — meaning
that they would have a range of more than 3,400 miles. Those fears were
confirmed Nov. 28, when North Korea tested its Hwasong-15 missile. This
enormous missile flew 54 minutes and traveled about 596 miles on a lofted
trajectory. Its likely range was 8,100 miles — which would include the entire
United States.
The advance is significant — last year, the
longest-range missile North Korea had tested had a range of just 2,500 miles.
Wright notes that this older missile, known as the Musudan, was the first that
had gone significantly past the Scud missile technology first developed by the Soviets
but that it had problems with reliability. After failed tests in 2016, North
Korea appears to have shut down the Musudan program and replaced it with
something better.
It is not clear whether North Korea can make
a thermonuclear device small enough to fit on the end of the new missile, but
many suspect that North Korea will soon gain this ability — if it hasn't already.
“I believe we have to assume it can,” James M. Acton, a physicist and
co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, told The Washington Post shortly after the Sept. 3 test.
More
new missiles tested
North Korea's missile program has been around
for decades, but the sheer number of new missiles unveiled in 2017 shocked
experts. “This year didn’t see a record number of strategic missile tests, but
it did see a record number of new missiles,” said Shea Cotton, a research
associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “In fact,
most of the missile systems tested this year we hadn’t seen before.”
In just one year, Cotton said, Kim Jong Un
has unveiled six new missile systems. In contrast, his father, Kim Jong Il,
tested only two new missiles during his time as leader, and North Korean
founder Kim Il Sung tested three. “While I’m sure most of these new systems
have been in the works for the past few years,” Cotton said of this year's
tests, “I’ll give credit where credit is due. That is impressive as hell.”
Others agreed. “From the late 1980s until
2016, all we saw were variant of Soviet Scuds,” Wright said, but North Korea's
missiles were now starting to look like modern missiles, with things like
movable nozzles on their engines to steer the missiles. Importantly, two of the
land-based missiles tested this year — the KN-15s — used solid fuel, rather
than liquid fuel.
This is an important development as solid
fuel can be left in a missile, meaning that it doesn't have to be fueled before
it is launched.
“Solid-fueled missiles can be launched much
more quickly and from mobile launchers, thereby enhancing the survivability of
Pyongyang's missile arsenal,” said Kingston Reif, director of disarmament and
threat reduction policy at the Arms Control Association. “The ability to load
and launch with minimal warning would put strain on the ability of missile
defenses to get an early track on the missile.”
What's
next?
North Korea's weapons program advances in
2017 were not widely anticipated. But what about 2018? If North Korea continues
on its current course without being interrupted, experts think it will make
further advances within a year.
North Korea may test new missile technology,
such as another that uses solid-state fuel, further advancing how effective its
missiles would be in a real-life setting. It may also conduct more military
exercises around missile launches or launching a volley with multiple missiles
going up at once — essentially, allowing it to practice the sort of procedure
that would happen in a real launch.
Cotton suggests that if things continue at
this rate, North Korea could probably build up to a bigger event: what has been
called the “Juche bird,” a test of a missile loaded with a live nuclear weapon,
probably above the Pacific Ocean. “A lot of folks in the U.S. have said North
Korea still lacks the capability to put it all together,” Cotton said. “North
Korea has made several statements suggesting they think they might need to show
us once and for all that they do have that capability.”
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