[Mr. Xi has already enjoyed remarkable success expanding Chinese influence, not only in Asia, but also in Africa, Europe and as far away as South America. He has benefited from President Trump’s election, which has made it easier for him to present China as a stable, responsible alternative to an erratic, inward-looking United States.]
By
Jane Perlez
President
Xi Jinping is pushing a vision of national rejuvenation during the
Communist
Party congress, which is expected to give him a
second five-year
term. Credit
Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
|
BEIJING
— No part of the world seems
too small, too near or too far for China’s globe-trotting president, Xi
Jinping.
He has traveled to the tiny Pacific islands
of Fiji, toured the neighboring nations of Central Asia and signaled his
interest in Antarctica with a visit to Tasmania, off Australia’s southern
coast. This month, he sent Chinese warships to dock in London, a reminder of
how much has changed since British gunboat diplomacy humiliated China in the
19th century.
Mr. Xi is pushing a vision of national
rejuvenation during the current Communist Party congress, which is expected to
give him a second five-year term by Wednesday. And central to his ambitions is
a far-reaching drive to restore China to what he considers its rightful place
as a global power.
“Xi’s aggressive diplomacy largely comes from
his own aspirations, beliefs and strategic requirements,” said Shi Yinhong, a
professor of international relations at Renmin University.
Mr. Xi has already enjoyed remarkable success
expanding Chinese influence, not only in Asia, but also in Africa, Europe and
as far away as South America. He has benefited from President Trump’s election,
which has made it easier for him to present China as a stable, responsible
alternative to an erratic, inward-looking United States.
Yet signs of friction in different parts of
the world raise questions about how long China’s winning streak can continue,
and point to the challenges that Mr. Xi faces in a second term as he presses
the assertive brand of foreign policy he favors.
In Australia, the government is vexed by what
it sees as Beijing’s interference in domestic politics. In Europe, politicians
are raising an alarm over heavy-handed trade tactics aimed at acquiring foreign
technology. In Southeast Asia and Africa, there are complaints about a new era
of Chinese colonialism.
China’s ties with two regional heavyweights —
Japan and India — remain strained, and Mr. Xi faces an unusually precarious
situation on the Korean Peninsula, with both the North and the South defying
him, one building a nuclear arsenal and the other deploying American missile
defenses.
Still, in a marathon opening speech last
week, Mr. Xi showed no sign of retreat and hinted at even bigger spending to
vault China to world greatness: more for the military to make it a first-class
fighting outfit with global reach, and more for his overseas infrastructure
program, the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which he sees as a way to win
friends around the world.
Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s
economic reforms that started in the late 1970s, set a policy of keeping a low
profile in international affairs and biding time. But more than his
predecessors, Mr. Xi is abandoning that approach — and encountering pushback.
In Germany, a sharp increase in Chinese
investment has prompted complaints that China is closing its markets even as it
goes on a buying spree abroad, especially of valuable technology companies.
Policy makers are considering options for retaliating.
There are also concerns that China is trying
to divide the European Union by cultivating poorer countries like Hungary and
Greece and using them to block policies supported by richer countries that hurt
Beijing.
Rising powers always face resistance. But in
China’s case, that pushback comes not just from the West but also from
neighbors who remember the tributary system of its imperial past — or are wary
of its Communist political system despite its embrace of capitalism decades
ago.
Mr. Xi has made inroads in Southeast Asia,
gaining influence in Myanmar, Malaysia and Thailand. But improving ties with
Myanmar’s civilian leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, have been offset by the deep
popular mistrust of China in that country.
In Malaysia, Beijing’s investments in
infrastructure have been met with accusations that the nation is selling off
its sovereignty. And in Thailand, a rail project important to a new trade route
from southern China has been delayed by haggling over costs.
In Vietnam, China’s efforts to take advantage
of Mr. Trump’s neglect have fallen short, said Prof. Alexander L. Vuving of the
Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. “Xi’s
pressure in the midst of a weakening U.S. commitment has forced some
concessions but it has also deepened Hanoi’s mistrust of Beijing,” Professor
Vuving said.
Even in the Philippines, where the strongman
president Rodrigo Duterte has cozied up to Beijing and distanced himself from
the United States, Mr. Xi has not enjoyed a complete victory. American drones
and spy planes have been more decisive in Mr. Duterte’s battle against Islamic
militants than the rifles donated by China.
“The quantities of arms sent are not
significant compared to the amount needed by the armed forces and the police,”
said Roilo Golez, a former congressman. “Five thousand rifles are very minimal
and token.”
Mr. Xi has sometimes succeeded in positioning
China as a responsible power by stepping up when Washington has stepped back —
speaking up for globalization at Davos, or in favor of the Paris climate change
accord.
“People are paying far more attention to
China’s influence operations than I have seen before,” said Dan Blumenthal,
director of Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
But Beijing has also struggled to sway global
opinion without resorting to heavy-handed methods or threats that can be
counterproductive.
In Australia, which China has sought to use
as a kind of pilot zone to test methods that could be adopted in the United States
and Europe, Mr. Xi has already encountered a backlash.
China has encouraged Chinese businessmen to
give to political campaigns, recruited Chinese students to press its policies
in classrooms and mobilized local Chinese-language news media.
In a thinly disguised warning this month,
Australia’s intelligence chief, Duncan Lewis, described such activities as “a
threat to our sovereignty, the integrity of our national institutions and the
exercise of our citizens’ rights.”
Analysts say Australia has been a tempting
target because China is its biggest trading partner, and it is home to large
populations of Chinese immigrants and students, who provide critical financial
support to its universities.
But the government is now considering new
limits on campaign contributions, restrictions on foreign investments and
tougher counterintelligence laws. Australia is also seeking to strengthen security
ties with India and Japan.
“The Chinese party-state has overplayed its
hand in trying to influence Australia’s choices,” said Rory Medcalf, head of
the national security college at the Australian National University.
Concern about political interference by China
is also growing in New Zealand, where a Chinese official recently advised
Chinese-language journalists to coordinate coverage with China’s official
press.
“I never imagined the level of instruction
was that direct,” said Anne-Marie Brady, a professor of Chinese politics at the
University of Canterbury in Christchurch, who recently published a research
paper on Beijing’s efforts in New Zealand.
Mr. Shi, the international relations
professor, said President Trump’s “negative attitude toward liberal world trade
and climate change” had emboldened Mr. Xi to take a more active role on the
global stage.
But he added that China’s efforts to
influence opinion and policy in other countries were a natural extension of its
growing stature in the world, and not just a result of Mr. Xi’s leadership. He
said China has greater “financial and human resources” available now — and
greater ambitions.
Juecheng Zhao contributed research.
Follow Jane Perlez on Twitter @janeperlez.