[China ’s urgent quest for energy is the main driver of its
strategic interest in a region whose proximity allows huge reserves of oil and
gas to be moved overland through Chinese-built pipelines rather than by ship
through American-dominated sea lanes from the Middle East .]
By Jane Perlez And Bree Feng
Leon Neal/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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But when the pumps finally started this month, the China
National Petroleum Corporation had won a share in the project, known as
Kashagan, and President Xi Jinping was in the region recently to celebrate,
another indication that China ’s influence has eclipsed even Russia ’s across the former Soviet republics of Central Asia .
In the long term, analysts say, China ’s economic ties with Central Asia
could liberate it from any concern that the United States could use its superior naval power to enforce a sea
blockade, should relations ever deteriorate to the point of confrontation.
Here in Kazakhstan , the most prosperous of the former Soviet republics, Mr.
Xi formalized the $5 billion deal for Kashagan, which for the first time places
China in a consortium alongside the big international players:
Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and the Italian company ENI.
In Turkmenistan , Mr. Xi opened a new onshore gas field, the second biggest
in the world, one that the Western energy companies had been vying for, but
that will now send gas through a Chinese-built, 1,100-mile pipeline that
stretches all the way to Shanghai .
In less-affluent Uzbekistan , China has become the country’s second-largest trade partner. And
in energy-poor Kyrgyzstan , Mr. Xi was the center of attention at the
China-bankrolled Shanghai Cooperation Organization annual meeting, pushing
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to the side in the group photo.
China’s increasing role in the region not only has
surpassed Russia’s, analysts said, but has been buttressed by the United
States’ waning influence as it winds down the war in Afghanistan. Washington , once eager to bolster the presence of big Western oil
companies as a way to trim the power of Russia , has receded on that front, too.
“China has a very good instrument here — a lot of money and
very good conditions on credit,” said Dosym A. Satpayev, director of the
Kazakhstan Risk Assessment Group, as he dined in an upscale restaurant in
Almaty. “Russia doesn’t have that. The influence of Russia has decreased in the last 15 years.”
Until the opening of the Central Asia-China pipeline in
2009, Russia was the biggest customer of natural gas from Turkmenistan . Now China draws energy from two fields in Turkmenistan, having
outfoxed Exxon Mobil and Chevron to gain access to a lucrative site called
Galkynysh, said Steve LeVine, author of “The Oil and the Glory: The Pursuit of
Empire and Fortune on the Caspian Sea.”
“Now China has a second gas field in Turkmenistan , and the Turkmen leader is doubling down on Xi,” Mr.
LeVine said.
While energy was uppermost on Mr. Xi’s agenda, it was not China ’s exclusive interest, said Altay Abibullayev, spokesman of
the Central Communications Service for the president of Kazakhstan .
“China ’s growth is amazing, and we are trying to diversify the
investments so that it can be profitable for both sides,” he said.
In strikingly warm language, Mr. Xi spoke at the Nazarbayev
University in Astana about a Chinese-financed new Silk Road
that would run from China through Central
Asia to Europe .
It is a theme that the United States used to invoke, too, with Secretary of State Hillary
Rodham Clinton talking in 2011 about a north-south Silk Road that would connect the Central Asian nations to Afghanistan by rail and road. But little is heard of that now. In Mr.
Xi’s vision, China ’s east-west
Silk Road is seen
as a more natural fit than Mrs. Clinton’s notion because the Chinese route
retraces the ancient trade routes. “This is practical cooperation,” Mr. Xi said
as President Nursultan Nazarbayev sat next to him on the podium at Nazarbayev
University .
It is not all plain sailing for China in Central
Asia . There are fears, bordering
on xenophobia, some Kazakhs say, of a hugely populated and rich China , and the angst is particularly keen in Kazakhstan , a place of only 16 million people in a land larger than Western Europe .
Whether Kashagan turns out to be a real prize for China remains a question. China has coveted the oil at Kashagan since it was discovered in
2000.
Efforts by the China National Offshore Oil Company and
Sinopec to join the Western-led consortium in 2003 were rejected because the
founding companies believed the field would be so productive they wanted it all
for themselves, said Edward C. Chow, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies and a former executive with the Chevron Corporation.
The Chinese revived their interest last year when
Texas-based ConocoPhillips decided to sell its share back to Kazakhstan . At first, it appeared India ’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation would buy
ConocoPhillips’s share. But at a meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Nazarbayev in China in the spring, the Kazakh leader said he preferred China to India , and he handed Beijing a prime role in the project, Indian and Chinese officials
said.
Although the early oil at Kashagan has begun to flow, the
Western oil companies remain frustrated at the enormous technical difficulties
caused by the depth of the oil in the seabed, and the high sulfur content of
the oil, Mr. Chow said. The companies are also disheartened by the more than
$40 billion expense so far for relatively low initial output of 375,000 barrels
a day, he said.
Yet, China is well positioned for a bigger role, including directing
the oil to China rather than to the West when more production becomes
available, he said.
In Mr. Xi, Mr. Nazarbayev has another suitor he can turn to
if the talks with the Western oil companies get tough.
Indeed, Mr. Nazarbayev, 73, a former Communist Party chief
from the Soviet era, appears to have cultivated a special relationship with Mr.
Xi, 60, China ’s new Communist Party secretary-general. They spent 14
hours together during Mr. Xi’s visit, including some informal sessions:
breakfast as they flew between cities in Kazakhstan, and a nighttime
get-together at Mr. Xi’s hotel in Astana, Mr. Le said.
“They drank vodka together, and talked a lot,” he said.