[Japan, Vietnam and the
Philippines are among those most concerned, as is the United States, which is
the pre-eminent military power in Asia. The United States has said that in
general, it takes no sides in territorial disputes but wants to maintain
stability and freedom of navigation in the region.]
By Edward Wong and Chris Buckley
 |
|
People’s Liberation Army
officers arriving Wednesday at the Great Hall of the People
in Beijing
for the annual session of the National People’s Congress.
|
BEIJING — The Chinese military
budget for 2015 will be about 10 percent bigger than last year’s, a senior
Chinese official said on Wednesday, meaning that such spending is growing at a
pace faster than the overall growth rate of the Chinese economy.
The estimate was given in
Beijing by Fu Ying, a veteran diplomat who is the spokeswoman for the National
People’s Congress, China’s
legislature, whose annual meeting begins this week. Ms. Fu said at a news
conference that the military budget’s precise numbers would be announced
Thursday, along with other budget outlays that will later be formally approved
by the legislature.
A 10 percent increase
would put the 2015 military budget around $145 billion, making China the
world’s second-largest military spender, though still far behind the United States, which spends
more on its armed forces than the next eight countries combined.
China’s “defense budget
increases have always outpaced the growth in G.D.P.,” said Richard A.
Bitzinger, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore who has studied
China’s military spending patterns.
“But this is the first
time when the gap could be really, really big,” Mr. Bitzinger said. “That is,
if the economy only grows by, say, 6 percent, but the defense budget grows by
10 percent, that’s a really sizable difference. It demonstrates that the Chinese
leadership is committed to increasing defense spending, no matter what.”
Military experts say
China’s actual military budget is almost certainly higher than the official
number, but still far less than that of the United States.
Budget growth of 10 percent
would be lower than in 2014, when the official military budget rose 12.2 percent,
to almost $132 billion. In early 2014, IHS Jane’s, a consulting and analysis
company that covers the industry, estimated that China would spend $148 billion
that year on its military.
China’s military
expansion is generally consistent with its economic growth and the size of its
economy, which is the second largest in the world and is expected to soon
surpass that of the United States. Nevertheless, China’s increasingly powerful
military and its modernization are alarming other Asian nations, many of which
have come into diplomatic conflict with China in recent years over territorial
disputes in regional seas.
Japan, Vietnam and the
Philippines are among those most concerned, as is the United States, which is
the pre-eminent military power in Asia. The United States has said that in
general, it takes no sides in territorial disputes but wants to maintain
stability and freedom of navigation in the region.
Xu Guangyu, a retired
People’s Liberation Army major general who is now a senior consultant at the
China Arms Control and Disarmament Association in Beijing, said by telephone
that the estimated 10 percent increase was in line with China’s economic growth
and security needs. He said increases of a similar magnitude would continue for
years to come.
“Per capita, China’s military spending remains
too low, only about $57,000 for each member of the military forces in 2014,” he
said. “That’s far lower than Japan or the United States.”
He added that China’s relatively
large increases in spending were likely to continue for another decade or more.
“For some time into the future, the rises will continue at a level higher than
rises in Western countries,” he said. “Up until, I would estimate, average
spending for each member of the military reaches levels similar to Japan’s.”
Phillip C. Saunders, an
Asia military analyst at the National Defense University in Washington, said in
an email exchange before the Wednesday announcement that, among other things,
it was important to compare the growth in the military budget to the growth in
total government expenditure to see whether the army was getting more support
than other agencies. China is expected to release overall government budget
figures during the congress this week.
On Wednesday, Ms. Fu, the
legislative spokeswoman, said the 10 percent military budget increase “is on
the same level as the growth rate of the budget for the central government and
central-level government agencies. The overall level of national armaments is
still lacking, and it will take time.”
Recent state news reports
suggest that modernization and production of advanced weaponry is one major
area of emphasis and increased spending for China, Dr. Saunders said. He added
that “the P.L.A. has increased its emphasis on joint training and realistic
exercises, and I expect some of the budget increase will support a further
expansion of training to improve the military’s ability to fulfill” a Communist
Party leadership edict “to be able to ‘fight and win wars.’ ”
In recent years, much of
China’s military modernization has been concentrated on its navy. Besides
mapping out possible conflicts over territorial disputes in the East and South
China Seas, many senior military officers are still focused on potential war
scenarios over Taiwan, the self-governing island that China considers part of
its territory.
As part of a longstanding
mandate, the United States government on occasion approves arms sales to
Taiwan, to which China strongly objects. Some foreign military analysts say the
Obama administration is likely to approve new sales soon.
At the news conference,
Ms. Fu talked broadly about a range of policy issues and gave the military
budget estimate after being asked by a foreign journalist. Ms. Fu was particularly
interested in underscoring the Chinese leaders’ commitment to battling
corruption. Since taking power in late 2012, Xi Jinping,
the president and party leader, has led a wide anticorruption campaign that
has, among other things, resulted in investigations of some of his most
powerful political enemies.
That campaign and other
moves by Mr. Xi have allowed him to exert much greater control over the Chinese
military than his predecessor, Hu Jintao, ever did, analysts and party insiders
say. Powerful Chinese military leaders have been placed under investigation. On
Monday, the military announced on its official website the names of 14 generals who are being
investigatedor have been convicted of graft.
Among those under investigation
is Maj. Gen. Guo Zhenggang, son of Guo Boxiong, the retired vice chairman of
the Central Military Commission. Mr. Xi has already placed under investigation
Xu Caihou, another retired vice chairman of the commission, and now there is
speculation about whether Guo Boxiong is next.
Dr. Saunders said the
increase in military spending could result in greater pay for officers as part
of the effort to combat corruption in the military.
Edward Wong reported from
Beijing, and Chris Buckley from Hong Kong. Michael Forsythe contributed
reporting from Hong Kong, and Mia Li contributed research from Beijing.
