[Many people think that Bangladesh's comprehensive economic partnership with China could help Bangladesh become a manufacturing - trading nation pushing the latter's growth trajectory to a new height. Bangladesh's diplomacy at this stage needs to be highly creative and anchored on national consensus. At the same time, Bangladesh needs to be careful that its ties with China should in no way pose any threat to Indian security in the region nor jeopardise relations with the United States, which intends to re-engage and play a more constructive role in Asia.]
Prof. Ataur Rahman
BANGLADESH'S foreign policy under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina seems to focus more on the 'East', envisioning a future course more geared towards China, rather than the 'West'. A number of Bangladesh's mega projects, including the Padma Bridge and the Ganges barrage, were given to Chinese Companies. The Agreement on 'deep sea port' which was supposed to be signed during Sheikh Hasina's 'landmark' visit to China in June 2014, was, however, withheld. Indeed, China's 'peaceful rise' as a global power and increasing engagements in South Asia provide the principal dynamics to Bangladesh-China relations. But will Bangladesh be able to engage China in creative and competitive cooperation and sustain a long-term relationship with the second most powerful country in the world? How will the 'India angle' affect the relationship? What will be the role of the US which many observers feel is already diminishing in the region? Indeed, Bangladesh's foreign policy today faces a formidable challenge in maintaining a “balanced relationship” especially with the superpowers.
Strategic context
Geopolitics in South Asia has undergone some significant transformations today with China emerging as an important actor. Indeed, China's increasing influence in its South Asian neighbourhood provides an opportunity – not a threat – to states like Bangladesh. But there are important limits on what China can and cannot do. Exerting influence on development and security is one thing, but to model the political pattern and social dynamics is quite another. Notwithstanding, China's rise, often neglected as a factor in South Asia, is encouraging a more nuanced US approach to its South Asia policy as a whole, one that has not been fully comprehended in its “Asia Pivot” strategy.
Historical and geopolitical links
China and Bangladesh share time-honoured history, splendid culture and unique trade links. It is noteworthy to mention three dimensions of historical convergence. First, many Chinese and foreign scholars believe that the Southern Silk Road was the earliest link between China and the Indian Subcontinent and also the shortest distance covered by ancient Chinese inhabitants of border areas when they entered the Indian Subcontinent through Myanmar; second, Southern Silk Road served as an indispensable bridge for cultural, scientific and business exchanges between China, especially its Southwestern region, and India; and third, from 13th to 17th century, the Chinese had mastered the most advanced ship building technologies that propelled its oceangoing trade into the Bangla region, which already had a booming seafaring industry.
Political relations
A remarkable aspect in political relations between the two countries is that changes in regimes in both countries have not affected bilateral relations; rather they have continued to grow from strength to strength. In fact, there is a noticeable continuity in China's relations with Bangladesh. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina undertook a high-profile five-day official visit to China in March 2009. It was her first visit to China as the prime minister. The much anticipated high level talks between Hasina and her Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao, was a crucial stepping stone in Sheikh Hasina's ambition to get a "comprehensive partnership" with Beijing. The landmark second visit, made in June 2014, dealt with a spectrum of issues significant for both the countries. During her stay in China from 6th June to 11th June, the Bangladesh Premier met with several key personnel including Premier Li Keqiang, President Xi Jinping and Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), Yu Zhengsheng. During the visit, various bilateral issues were discussed with the Chinese leadership. Economic issues dominated the agenda, more specifically the Chinese financial support for mega infrastructure projects.
Economic cooperation
The most powerful aspect of Bangladesh–China relations over the past decades is economic cooperation and interdependence. China very appropriately looks at Bangladesh as a trading nation and a “bridge between South and Southeast Asia”. China's phenomenal rise as the world's second largest economic power is indicated by its huge economy and its reserve of three trillion dollars. Bilateral trade relations between the two countries have been growing steadily. The volume of trade increased almost six-fold in 10 years reaching a new height of almost $10 billion in 2013-2014, although trade imbalance is very high in favour of China. The trade imbalance is a big worry despite China's zero tariff treatment to 4762 products. China is keen in relocating its businesses from China and has sought land from the government for a special economic zone for Chinese companies. In fact, a “high wave” of Chinese investment in Bangladesh over the next five years in critical areas, like infrastructure, energy development, and manufacturing, will definitely take China-Bangladesh relations to a new trajectory never imagined before.
Security relations
The importance of China in Bangladesh's security calculus underscores the uniqueness of our bilateral cooperation. Bangladesh turned to China for military equipment out of necessity at a time when neither the United States/western powers nor India were willing to fulfill our defense needs. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1976, the two countries have been maintaining regular contacts to negotiate weapons transfers, inspect military facilities, and explore areas of defense cooperation. Chinese advisers and technicians have periodically served in Chittagong and Dhaka to assist with making Chinese equipment operational in the Bangladeshi armed forces. As early as 1987, Yang Dezhi, Chief of the general staff of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA), conducted a five-day goodwill visit to Bangladesh. Today, almost 70% of Bangladesh's defense inventory, comprising fighter aircrafts, frigates, coastal patrol boats, and tanks, is supplied by China. Bangladesh Air Force looked to China for the bulk of its aircrafts as well as for training. Most of Bangladesh's Air Force inventory includes Chinese versions of the Old Soviet MiG 19 and 21, and Chinese A-5s and F-6/7 type fighters.
The Bangladesh Army has been equipped with Chinese tanks including the recently procured ones. Since 2005, Bangladesh has emerged as a major buyer of China made weapons. In 2008, Bangladesh set up an anti-ship missile launch-pad near Chittagong Port with Chinese assistance. Bangladesh Navy successfully test-fired an anti-ship missile with a strike range of 120 km from the frigate BNS Osman near Kutubdia Island in the Bay of Bengal. Although, the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina led current government in Dhaka is favourably inclined towards India, the regime has continued its policy of defense cooperation with China. The Bangladesh Navy has an ambitious plan to acquire two high-value submarines, a number of frigates, large patrol aircraft, patrol craft, two landing craft utility (LCU), hydrographic unit, salvage vessel and missile boats and equip some ships with missiles in the next five years.
Maritime cooperation in the Bay
China looks at the Bay of Bengal as an important maritime space for its future connectivity, trade and energy link to the Indian Ocean and its security landscape. China's ambition is also propelled by a constellation of strategic, commercial and security considerations. The paramount concern animating Chinese interests in the Bay and Indian Ocean is energy security, an imperative that has been widely discussed and debated in media and academic studies. China's use of naval power to protect its vital interests in the Indian Ocean is already being perceived by other powers as causing a security imbalance in the region. It is thus being factored in a major way in the strategic calculi of India, US and others. China's current strategy in the Indian Ocean is to make its presence felt through building a credible naval strength. Being the world's second largest economy and having very high dependence on imported oil -- all of which passes through the strategic channels located in the Indian Ocean -- China needs to have close ties with littoral states in the Bay. It is no wonder China is gradually but purposefully expanding its economic and political influence among states in the region.
Future direction
Despite the power gap between China and Bangladesh, the two countries have shown clear commitment over the years to building “a positive, cooperative and comprehensive relationship” that will surely pick up the momentum in the coming years. Indeed, Bangladesh's relations with China over the next decade clearly present a host of opportunities. Never in history has the Middle Kingdom emerged as an indispensable economic partner to Bangladesh as it does today. Many people think that Bangladesh's comprehensive economic partnership with China could help Bangladesh become a manufacturing - trading nation pushing the latter's growth trajectory to a new height. Bangladesh's diplomacy at this stage needs to be highly creative and anchored on national consensus. At the same time, Bangladesh needs to be careful that its ties with China should in no way pose any threat to Indian security in the region nor jeopardise relations with the United States, which intends to re-engage and play a more constructive role in Asia.
(The author is President of Bangladesh Political Science Association and Chairman, Initiative for Strategic and Maritime Studies.)
