[Issue-wise also, federalism will emerge as the main agenda once again. This will create problem for the Khas-Aryan dominated syndicate. The genuine federalist forces will bring the ethnic or indigenous nationality dimension to the forefront of the debate. The issue of identity, once again, will bring out thousands of people to the streets. The opponents also will raise their voices. The syndicate has no intention settling the issue democratically. Therefore, the syndicate is neither interested nor ready to hold any elections.]
By Govinda Neupane
In its interesting but not so cherished recent history, Nepal has
been continuously changing its seating places between fire and frying pan. Rana
aristocracy was replaced by King's indirect (1950-1959) and direct (1960-1989)
dictatorial regimes. From 1990 to 2002, the amateurish or in other way opportunist amalgamation
of parliamentary forces promoted a notorious political culture that
included elitist anarchy, lawlessness, corruption and never ending lust for
power.
When these parliamentary forces turned into villains overtly, the king and
his forces 'dethroned' them and snatched power. Nepal, once again was under the
firm grip of the resurgent dictatorial monarchy (2002-2006). The king, who was
already under the scanner for his notorious activities, did more damage to Nepal's
standing and national interests also. People revolted against him. As the result, the infamous
parliamentary forces in company with the Maoists got the throne back. As usual,
they did everything wrong – elitist anarchy, corruption, loot, promotion of
power-hungry culture, lawlessness and etc. They staged several politically vulgar
dramas including the proposal of promulgating a new constitution through
elected constituent assembly (CA). Once, they held elections, formed
assembly, spent several billions of rupees and finally destroyed everything by disbanding the CA without producing a new constitution.
Once again, people are asked to line up to cast their votes in
November this year for a new CA. For this purpose the ruling elite, the four
party syndicate (an illegal de facto government) has formed an Election Council
(government without any right to make executive decisions independently). The
syndicate has put in place the Election Commission by employing its nominees on
shared basis. The Election Commission has registered the voters by now. On
surface, it seems that the syndicate and its offspring, the Council of Ministers and
Commission are busy to organize the CA election on time. These are visible elephant tusks but the chewing teeth are deep inside invisible.
Why would the syndicate be so genuinely interested in organizing an
election? There are no valid reasons. All the leaders of the constituents of the
syndicate are enjoying royal status, privileges and perks without being accountable to anyone. They have power to make any governmental decisions using their
pawns and proxies. At their whim, they can use air ambulances to lift
them up to Delhi and Singapore or could make 'health trips' to US or Singapore
or Japan on state expenses. They could appoint any hooligan to any position
of power (e.g. Man Singh). In this way, they are not interested to stage the
election on the basis of individual preferences.
As a collective entity, the syndicate has four constituent integral parts.
Among them, the Nepali Congress is a loose network of liberal interests. They
neither know about their philosophy nor their organizational strengths nor even their standing among the parties. They have no idea what happens if the elections take place. Hence, neither they are ready nor they want taking any risks.
The UML, the other member in the syndicate, is a clever fox. It has begun 'howling' loud and beautiful. It projects itself as the Messiah of the people and nation as well. More recently, taking working-note-pieces from dustbins and reassembling them into one, it has started 'barking loud claim' that it will win 106 out of 240 seats (directly elected) in the new CA. It is happy to say that Nepali Congress will win 86 and Unified Maoists 28. This tall claim alone tells a lot about its 'seriousness' towards the elections.
The Unified Maoist party, apparently the syndicate honcho, on the other hand, has been vertically split into two and its house is not in order. Certainly, they know that there may not be miracle everyday in their favor and this time, it may happen against them. The split, factionalism of unprecedented nature and overt rage of people against them, and particularly against its top brass have heralded them a message to go to the elections as late as possible, if it is a must and never organize election, if it is a choice.
The Madhesi forces, the fourth syndicate member, under the loose network called 'Madhesi Morcha', literally 'Madhesi Front' neither commands respect among Madhesi people themselves nor will it, after the election results, enjoy the same status, privilege and perks as it does enjoy today. Hence, it is interested in clinging to power rather than facing the angry electorate.
The UML, the other member in the syndicate, is a clever fox. It has begun 'howling' loud and beautiful. It projects itself as the Messiah of the people and nation as well. More recently, taking working-note-pieces from dustbins and reassembling them into one, it has started 'barking loud claim' that it will win 106 out of 240 seats (directly elected) in the new CA. It is happy to say that Nepali Congress will win 86 and Unified Maoists 28. This tall claim alone tells a lot about its 'seriousness' towards the elections.
The Unified Maoist party, apparently the syndicate honcho, on the other hand, has been vertically split into two and its house is not in order. Certainly, they know that there may not be miracle everyday in their favor and this time, it may happen against them. The split, factionalism of unprecedented nature and overt rage of people against them, and particularly against its top brass have heralded them a message to go to the elections as late as possible, if it is a must and never organize election, if it is a choice.
The Madhesi forces, the fourth syndicate member, under the loose network called 'Madhesi Morcha', literally 'Madhesi Front' neither commands respect among Madhesi people themselves nor will it, after the election results, enjoy the same status, privilege and perks as it does enjoy today. Hence, it is interested in clinging to power rather than facing the angry electorate.
Issue-wise also, federalism will emerge as the main agenda once
again. This will create problem for the Khas-Aryan dominated syndicate. The
genuine federalist forces will bring the ethnic or indigenous nationality dimension to the
forefront of the debate. The issue of identity, once again, will bring out
thousands of people to the streets. The opponents also will raise their voices. The syndicate
has no intention settling the issue democratically. Therefore, the syndicate
is neither interested nor ready to hold any elections in the country.
The bureaucrats, enjoying governmental ministerial power, prestige and possibly pelf so to say are willing to prolong their terms as much longer as possible. These are
warm winter sunny days - their heydays in life. The Almighty has blessed them with this
golden opportunity and they will try with every possible means to prolong the term period to remain blessed at the most. Hence, they would be even happier, when the date gets changed and extended every six months or so.
The President and his deputy will also gain from the extension of election dates as they would continue enjoying 'royal treatments' happily till replacements become available. And, the replacements will only be there, when the constitution is ready
and elections are held for the positions of the President and his deputy.
The opposition lead by Maoist Party has seen this as an
opportunity to expand their mass as well as organizational base. If the
syndicate prolongs the election date, the Maoists may gain more as the
ruling syndicate will be forced out of the rural areas due to their
unpopularity and anger of the people. It appears that the Maoist Party has done simple arithmetic already.
Their math is that when the forces of the syndicate vanish, the Maoists will
automatically replace them. And, to some extent that has been happening there.
Now, many observers outside Kathmandu share their assessments and opinions that the (Dash) Maoist Party or popularly known also as the 'Baidhya Party' has emerged stronger in many rural clusters. The Maoist party and their mathematical indicators have emboldened them to beat the drum against elections. Whereas both the newly formed Federal Democratic Party and 'Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum, Nepal' appear undecided. They are evaluating the cost and benefit. All these acts and actions are providing fodder to the syndicate to unroll apprehensions against organizing the elections.
Now, many observers outside Kathmandu share their assessments and opinions that the (Dash) Maoist Party or popularly known also as the 'Baidhya Party' has emerged stronger in many rural clusters. The Maoist party and their mathematical indicators have emboldened them to beat the drum against elections. Whereas both the newly formed Federal Democratic Party and 'Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum, Nepal' appear undecided. They are evaluating the cost and benefit. All these acts and actions are providing fodder to the syndicate to unroll apprehensions against organizing the elections.
The great neighbors – India and China are watching with some interests of their own. While the fluid political situation prolongs in Nepal, India believes
that it could harvest more benefits. China is in a weaker position there. Tibet
is its core component in diplomacy with Nepal. Hence, India has sided with or
even gave birth to the syndicate with a motive of prolonging political
fluidity in the tiny Himalayan nation. On the other hand, China seems to have pushed the oppositions: both the 'Baidhya Maoists' and royalists to open dialogue. It again seems that China is doing so and so with the
syndicate and doing some business with Baidhya also. Hence, both India and China are not
that excited about Nepal having elections anytime soon.
The European Communities and the international NGOs are getting a fertile
land to promote or rather impose their values, beliefs and culture over Nepali
society through their 'foster children' called NGOs. They are happy to play in
this muddy water. The UN and its system agencies may be happy that they have a
project area where their bureaucrats could stay in a paradise on earth without
any hardship or risks. Probably, this is one of the most preferred destinations
for the UN bureaucrats to have a duty station. For the Americans, Nepal is,
perhaps, a tiny particle. Hence, they have outsourced the task of taking care
of their interests in Nepal to India, Europe, INGOs and UN. In this way, the
international players may not have any wishes that help settle the political
dust down here.
And, who wants to have elections? They may be Nepali people, who are the
most frustrated, angered and powerless lot now. Who cares them? Hence, for now,
I think, the proposed election is just a phantom or mirage - an optical illusion caused by 'political atmospheric conditions'. Why all these dramas then? The
illusion has been created just to camouflage the ill intents of the beneficiaries,
particularly that of the syndicate. Till the syndicate survives, there is
little chance of new elections taking place in the country. Therefore, dissolution of the
syndicate effectively and introduction of provisions that provide a
level-playing field may be the preconditions for the election.
* The author is one of the contributors to The Himalayan Voice. He is an independent political thinker of Nepal and whose 'Nepalko Jatiy Prashn' (Ethnic Issues of Nepal - 2000) has already become one of the bestsellers in the country. He also supports the idea of identity of the people within a federal system in Nepal.
