[Although American and
South Korean intelligence officials doubt the North is close to being able to
follow through on a nuclear strike, or that it would even try, given its almost
certain destruction, analysts say the country’s aggressive behavior is an
important and worrying sign of changing calculations in the North.]
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Win Mcnamee/Getty Images
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, center, after a
Pentagon briefing where he said America
was increasing its missile defenses.
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WASHINGTON —
The Pentagon will spend $1 billion to deploy additional ballistic missile
interceptors along the Pacific Coast to counter the growing reach of North Korea’s weapons, a
decision accelerated by Pyongyang’s recent belligerence and indications that
Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, is resisting China’s efforts to restrain
him.
The new deployments,
announced by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on Friday, will increase the number
of ground-based interceptors in California and Alaska to 44 from 30 by 2017.
The missiles have a
mixed record in testing, hitting dummy targets just 50 percent of the time, but
officials said Friday’s announcement was intended not merely to present a
credible deterrence to the North’s limited intercontinental ballistic missile
arsenal. They said it is also meant to show South Korea and Japan that the
United States is willing to commit resources to deterring the North and, at the
same time, warn Beijing that it must restrain its ally or face an expanding
American military focus on Asia.
“There’s been a
quickening pace of provocations,” said one senior administration official,
describing actions and words from North Korea and its new leader, Mr. Kim. “But
the real accelerant was the fact that the North Koreans seemed more unmoored
from their Chinese handlers than even we had feared.”
Although American and
South Korean intelligence officials doubt the North is close to being able to
follow through on a nuclear strike, or that it would even try, given its almost
certain destruction, analysts say the country’s aggressive behavior is an
important and worrying sign of changing calculations in the North.
In interviews over
recent days, Obama administration officials described internal debates at the
White House and the Pentagon about how strongly to react to the recent
provocations. It is a delicate balance, they said, of defending against real
potential threats while avoiding giving the North Koreans what one official
called “the satisfaction of seeming to make the rest of the world jumpy.”
In announcing the
deployments at a Pentagon news conference, Mr. Hagel cited North Korea’s third
test of nuclear weapons technology
last month, the successful test of a long-range missile that sent a satellite
into space, and the discovery that a new generation of mobile missiles appeared
closer to development.
“We will strengthen our
homeland defense, maintain our commitments to our allies and partners, and make
clear to the world that the United States stands firm against aggression,” Mr.
Hagel said.
All 14 of the new
interceptors will be placed in silos at Fort Greely, Alaska, where 26
interceptors are already deployed. Four others are at Vandenberg Air Force Base
in California.
North Korea has always
been an unpredictable, provocative dictatorship. But even by its own standards,
the isolated Communist regime’s recent decision to nullify a wartime cease-fire
and weeks of increasingly hyperbolic warnings, including of a pre-emptive
nuclear strike, appear to have crossed new and dangerous lines.
Adm. James A. Winnefeld
Jr., the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also spoke at the Pentagon
on Friday and described how the United States was deliberately building a
two-tiered system of deterrence against North Korea.
The United States will
“put the mechanics in place to deny any potential North Korean objectives to
launch a missile to the United States, but also to impose costs upon them if
they do,” Admiral Winnefeld said.
In an unusually pointed
warning to the new North Korean leader, Admiral Winnefeld added, “We believe
that this young lad ought to be deterred by that — and if he’s not, we’ll be
ready.”
The arguments for
bolstering the limited missile defense were symbolic of the larger problem.
The antimissile systems
are considered less than reliable, and some administration officials were
reluctant to pour additional resources into deploying more of the existing
technology.
But in testimony to the
Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. C. Robert Kehler, the commander of the
United States Strategic Command, made clear they serve a larger purpose.
“Deterring North Korea from acting irrationally is our No. 1 priority,” he
said. He acknowledged that there were doubts that the 30 existing antimissile
systems would be sufficient, and added that an additional site in the United
States, on the East Coast, may be needed to deter Iran.
But the new deployment
is also intended to send a signal to China, which tried but failed to block the
more recent nuclear test, to rein in the North. “We want to make it clear that
there’s a price to be paid for letting the North Koreans stay on the current
path,” a senior official said Friday.
The North’s new leader,
some analysts say, is intensifying the threats because he has failed to get the
Obama administration and its South Korean allies to return to an established
pattern in which the North provoked and the allies followed with much-needed
economic aid in return for Pyongyang’s promises to finally halt its nuclear
weapons program.
But a growing number of
experts believe North Korea also views its recent advances in missile and
nuclear technology as game changers that will allow it to build the nuclear
arsenal it desperately wants, both as a deterrent against better-armed enemies
and a cudgel to extract more concessions and possibly even international
recognition.
“Developing nuclear
weapons gives North Korea a chance to turn the tables in one stroke,” said
Cheong Seong-chang, an expert on North Korea at the Sejong Institute. “They can
get around the weakness of their economy and their outdated conventional
weapons.”
The short-term risk,
analysts say, is that the North’s chest-thumping will lead to another round of
limited conventional military skirmishes with the South that could get out of
control and, in the worst case, draw in the United States. With a new leader in
South Korea under political pressure to stand up to her country’s longtime
enemy, the risks are especially high.
The main newspaper of
North Korea’s ruling party, Rodong Sinmun, recently gave the North’s own
explanation for its actions. “Let the American imperialists and their followers
know!” the paper said. “We are not a pushover like Iraq or Libya.”
Some missile-defense
experts express deep skepticism about the capability of the ground-based
interceptors deployed in California and Alaska.
“It remains unclear
whether these ground-based interceptors can work effectively, and they should
be subjected to much more rigorous field testing before taxpayer resources are
spent on a system that is ineffective,” said Tom Z. Collina, research director
at the Arms Control Association,
an advocacy group here.
James N. Miller, the
Pentagon’s under secretary for policy, said the new missiles would have to show
success before they would be deployed. “We will continue to stick with our ‘fly
before we buy’ approach,” Mr. Miller said, citing a successful test as recently
as Jan. 26. George Lewis, an antimissile missile expert at Cornell University,
said 15 flight tests of the defensive system have tried to hit targets, and
only eight have succeeded.
The Defense Department’s
interceptors in California and Alaska are to blunt a long-range missile threat
from North Korea. The United States also deploys Patriot Advanced Capability
batteries in South Korea for defense of targets there, and the South fields an
older model of the Patriot.
Japan is developing its
own layered missile-defense system, which includes Aegis warships and Patriot
systems as well.
The United States
deploys one advanced TPY-2 missile-defense tracking radar in Japan to enhance
early warning across the region and toward the West Coast, and it has reached agreement
to deploy a second.
And the Navy also
recently bolstered its deployment of ballistic missile defense warships in
waters off the Korean Peninsula, although the vessels were sent as part of an
exercise even before the increase in caustic language from the North. As part
of the Foal Eagle
military exercise with South Korea, the Navy has four Arleigh Burke-class guided
missile destroyers in the region.
Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger reported from
Washington, and Martin Fackler from Seoul, South Korea. Choe Sang-hun
contributed reporting from Seoul, and William J. Broad from New York.
