[The impasse with Britain in particular effectively blocked the bid by Berlin and Paris to rewrite full European Union treaties to enshrine fiscal
discipline. Instead, 23 nations in Europe , headed by Germany and France , agreed to forge their own treaty pact, including
penalties for big spenders. The deal will be fleshed out in the coming months,
and could be enacted faster than the more sweeping and cumbersome EU-wide
accord originally sought by France and Germany .]
By Anthony
Faiola and Michael
Birnbaum
An accord between all nations broke down in part
due to British demands that sweeping new treaty changes proposed by Germany and France include protections for London from future financial regulations. The move suggested just
how much anti-E.U. sentiments have grown in Britain , with London increasingly seen as an outlier in the region.
The impasse with Britain in particular effectively blocked the bid by Berlin and Paris to rewrite full European Union treaties to enshrine fiscal
discipline. Instead, 23 nations in Europe , headed by Germany and France , agreed to forge their own treaty pact, including
penalties for big spenders. The deal will be fleshed out in the coming months,
and could be enacted faster than the more sweeping and cumbersome EU-wide
accord originally sought by France and Germany .
In addition, the 23 nations agreed to increase
the financial resources available to aid troubled nations in the region,
pledging to make available an additional $268 billion to the International
Monetary Fund. They also agreed to move up the establishment of a new $670
billion European bailout fund by one year, while keeping in place a $590
billion temporary fund, effectively enlarging the total amount available.
“We are doing everything we can to save the
euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said early Friday morning.
A positive view of a deal by the European
Central Bank has been viewed as essential to the institution doing more to
combat the region’s debt crisis, and the agreement early Friday appeared to fit
the ECB’s bill. Mario Draghi, ECB head, lauded the deal as a “very good outcome
for euro area members.” But stock markets in Asia were
trading lower on news of the outcome in Brussels .
Nevertheless, the failure to win full approval
from all EU nations appeared to be a political blow to European unity. Britain ’s Prime Minister David Cameron, for instance, talked
Friday morning about how thrilled he was that Britain had kept the pound, and forgone the euro, suggesting he
did not feel comfortable binding his nation closer to the region in a deal that
involving something as sacred as national budgets without special assurances.
“I’m afraid I cannot do that. It is not in my
national interest,” Cameron said.
Leaders from the E.U. member states negotiated
deep into the night, seeking to bridge differences on a pact that would set
limits on government borrowing and spending that only a handful of European
countries currently meet. That was seen as key to restoring confidence in
European economies.
Still, many had expected that it would be
difficult to reach an E.U.-wide accord.
If the pact among the 23 nations holds, it could
usher in a new era of austerity across Europe ,
unleashing a wave of even deeper government spending cuts and, in some cases,
higher taxes. The magnitude of the challenge was underlined Thursday by
revelations that the region’s ailing banks require fresh capital injections of
$153 billion and by the spectacle of jittery markets falling in New York,
London and Tokyo.
Analysts had said that a grand bargain struck in
Brussels could begin to restore investors’ confidence in the
ability of the region’s indebted nations to pay their bills, easing borrowing
rates in trouble spots such as Italy and potentially preventing a catastrophic debt default in
a major European country.
The toughest
solution being considered would
enshrine in European treaties limits on budget deficits and national debt, with
violations punishable by automatic penalties. The proposals set a standard so
strict that not even Germany , the continent’s powerhouse, currently meets it.
Depending on the pace of cuts envisioned,
economists warn, a deal here could morph into a “negative stimulus,” zapping
billions of euros out of the region’s economy at a time when it is teetering on
the verge of another recession. Underscoring that threat, the European Central
Bank on Thursday cut the region’s key interest rates and warned that its
economy was in danger of tanking.
Though not as devastating as a default in a
country such as Italy — an event that could trigger a new global financial
crisis — years of sluggish growth or economic contraction in Europe could
still ripple around the world. In China , for instance, hundreds of factories have shuttered as
exports to Europe have fallen.
Meanwhile, economies across the European Union,
where many nations began enacting rounds of deep budget cuts months ago, are
slowing, leaving consumers more afraid to open their wallets.
“For some countries, it might be feasible to
reach these new levels of debt, but the result will be a long-term recession
across the entire euro zone as countries cut spending,” said Constantin
Gurdgiev, adjunct lecturer of
finance at Trinity University in
Dublin. “Even if you give countries a time frame of 20 years, the constant
austerity required to do it will be great.”
Strict new standards on government borrowing and
spending could drive up unemployment rates and spark further reductions in
long-cherished social safety nets. Countries such as Ireland and Greece , which are suffering under brutal austerity programs
mandated by international bailouts, could find themselves locked into even more
drastic cuts, which would undermine their ability to keep offering full
benefits to some of their most vulnerable citizens,
including the poor and the unemployed.
But for countries such as fiscally conservative Germany , where Chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing
the hardest for tight restrictions on
borrowing and spending, painful new limits are viewed as fundamental to shoring
up the foundations of the euro and setting the region on a path toward deeper
economic integration. Germany is likely to resist any move to have its taxpayers support
countries such as Greece
and Italy through regional “euro bonds” unless those countries are
first operating on a tight fiscal leash.
“Overcoming the current crisis requires us to
take a closer look at its causes,” Merkel said Thursday before traveling to Brussels . “And one of the causes is the major level of debt in some
member states.”
In Washington , President Obama voiced concern Thursday about the events
unfolding in Europe , saying, “If we see Europe tank,
that could obviously have a big impact on our ability to generate jobs in the United States .” He noted that European leaders recognize the seriousness
of the problem but added, “The question is whether they can muster the
political will” to solve it.
A key question yet to be answered here is how
long countries will be given to meet any new guidelines. If a deal pushes
strict limits too quickly, “everybody will have a problem,” said Fernando
Fernandez, an economist at IE Business School in Madrid . “You cannot expect any countries — not Spain , not Germany — to reduce their debt [by] 20 points of GDP in three
years.”
To meet a proposed cap on total national debt of
60 percent of GDP, for instance, Greece would need to halve its debt load. To reach such a goal
without defaulting on its obligations to investors, Greece would be forced to impose drastic new austerity measures
on a population that has already seen historic cuts in public wages, state
payrolls and social benefits in recent months.
If fresh austerity does slow growth across
Europe for years, economists warn it could make it increasingly difficult for
deeply indebted countries such as
Italy to dig themselves out of
their financial holes anyway, raising the specter of another debt crisis down
the line.
“Already, the Mediterranean economies are
contracting rapidly, and Germany and other more-prosperous states are at near-zero growth,”
Peter Morici, a business professor at the University
of Maryland , wrote in an analysis of the harshest terms being
advocated by Berlin and Paris .
“Rising unemployment will feed on itself,
national tax bases will shrink, and sovereign debt will become less
manageable,” he said. “Private investors, though perhaps initially comforted
after Merkel’s reforms are adopted, again will become skeptical that Italy and the others will pay their debts and flee government
bonds.”
Birnbaum reported from Berlin .