May 26, 2011

AS G-8 MEETS, ASIAN LEADERS SEEK A BIGGER ROLE

[Since the economic meltdown of 2008, as far as many Asian leaders are concerned, the G-8 has been supplanted as a forum for discussing global issues by the broader G-20, which includes the emerging-market economies of China, India, Indonesia and Brazil and, all told, represents 85 percent of the world’s economy and two-thirds of its population.]

By Sonia Kolesnikov-Jessop
A man walks in front of the Deauville Congress Center, in Deauville,
 western France on Monday, May 23, 2011 where world leaders of the
 G8 will meet for a summit May 26 and May 27. World leaders of
the Group of Eight industrialized nations will put aside the squabbling
over deficits and austerity that has marked their recent gatherings and
seek to marshall their combined economic might behind the grass-roots
democracy movements that have swept North Africa and the
 Middle East since their last meeting a year ago.Photo: Markus Schreiber / AP
SINGAPORE — As Group of 8 leaders meet in the seaside resort of Deauville in northern France, most Asian leaders’ eyes are focused on the Group of 20 summit meeting planned for Nov. 3 and 4 in Cannes, which is expected to grapple with how to set the global economy and its wobbling recovery on a more sustainable and balanced path to growth.
Since the economic meltdown of 2008, as far as many Asian leaders are concerned, the G-8 has been supplanted as a forum for discussing global issues by the broader G-20, which includes the emerging-market economies of China, India, Indonesia and Brazil and, all told, represents 85 percent of the world’s economy and two-thirds of its population.
“We believe that there is a growing consensus in the international community that the G-20 is an appropriate, effective forum to deal with a variety of challenges facing today’s global economy,” said Oh Joon, South Korea’s ambassador to Singapore.
“Many of these issues, including global economic imbalances and international monetary cooperation, warrant engagement of both advanced and emerging economies, which can be provided by the G-20,” he said. “In fact, the G-20 leaders designated the G-20 as the premier forum for international economic cooperation at their Pittsburgh summit in September 2009.”
He continued: “As for the G-8, it is not proper for a non-G-8 country to discuss its future. But we understand that there will not be much of an overlap between the agendas of the two forums. For example, at the upcoming summits at Cannes, the G-20 will continue its deliberations on international macroeconomic cooperation, reform of the international monetary system, development cooperation, etc., while the G-8 is likely to have on its agenda issues such as the Fukushima nuclear accident, the role of the Internet, and development partnership with African countries.”
Gregory Chin, associate professor at York University in Toronto and acting director of global development at the Center for International Governance Innovation, a Canadian research institute, said that among Asian governments, the G-8 “was last seen as a relevant force at the time of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis,” when it was still the Group of 7.
At the time, the International Monetary Fund, run by the G-8 countries of Europe and North America, largely dictated what governments would do to get through the crisis. Since then, Mr. Chin said, “Asian governments have taken measures to mitigate against having to rely on the I.M.F. in the same way. There was strong resentment in Asia toward the G-7’s control of the global financial institutions, and the medicine that was offered.” Today, he said, “only Japan seems to be hanging on to the G-8.”
Mr. Chin said most Asian leaders now see the G-20 as better reflecting the evolution of the world economy than the G-8 and believe the larger forum has more potential to encourage benefit-sharing, as well as burden-sharing, among the key participants. But he said some Asean members, like Singapore, were “more reserved” about the G-20.
Tommy Koh, ambassador at large at Singapore’s ministry of foreign affairs, said the G-8 represented the “old order.”
“The 2008 global financial crisis showed that a body that more accurately reflected the weight of emerging economies was needed to help steer the world out of that crisis,” he said. “G-20 has thus supplanted the G-8 as the main body for global financial and economic cooperation,” he said. “That said, the G-8 still remains as a forum for political and strategic discussions, and as a caucus within the G-20.”
While the G-20 is more representative than the G-8 and better reflects the emerging order, it still lacks the kind of legitimacy the United Nations has, Mr. Koh said. “Small and medium-size countries feel marginalized by undemocratic forums such as G-20,” he pointed out.
To alleviate that problem, Singapore led like-minded countries to form the global governance group.
The group, conceptualized in April 2009 at the G-20 London Summit meeting, includes 28 countries: Bahamas, Bahrain, Barbados, Botswana, Brunei, Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Jamaica, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, Malaysia, Monaco, Montenegro, New Zealand, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Qatar, Rwanda, San Marino, Senegal, Singapore, Slovenia, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay and Vietnam.
“The 3-G’s basic objective is to build a bridge between the G-20 and the U.N. and to encourage the G-20 not to take actions that would undermine the U.N.,” said Vanu Gopala Menon, an ambassador who is Singapore’s permanent representative to the United Nations, who coordinates the global governance group.
Singapore attended the G-20 summit meeting in Seoul last year and has been invited to the Cannes gathering.
“Unlike the U.N. where we all have a voice, the G-20 process is closed,” Mr. Menon said. “It was in this context that Singapore convened the first meeting, which subsequently brought together a number of small and medium-size countries in the hope of developing a constructive dialogue on coordination and cooperation between G-20 and non-G-20 members.”
Mr. Menon said Asian countries in the global governance group generally agreed that “the G-20 catalyzed global actions during the financial crisis that ultimately helped avert a possible global economic depression.
“Nevertheless, there remains a need for the G-20 to be more consultative, inclusive and transparent in its deliberations for there to be wider support for its actions.”
Several U.N. members that do not belong to the Group of 20, like Norway, have criticized it for its lack of legitimacy.
The global governance group has advocated that the G-20 take on a “variable geometry” configuration allowing non-G-20 states to participate in G-20 ministerial and other gatherings on specialized issues. For example, Singapore and Switzerland could be brought in on discussions about financial institutions, in which they have significant interests, while on a subject like agriculture, non-G-20 members that have an important stake, like New Zealand, could be included.
Mr. Menon said the global governance group was currently focused on the work of the G-20 and had so far submitted four sets of papers related to development, labor, food security and the volatility of commodity prices.
Mr. Chin said the G-20 and, to some extent, the G-8 served another purpose for Asian countries: curtailing China’s rise.
“Multilateralism is seen as an institutional means through which other Asian countries can increase predictability and certainty in their relations with China,” he said, “both to lock in their access to the fast-growing Chinese domestic market and to foster mutually accepted procedures and norms for conflict management and resolution.”
@ The New York Times

[In addition to economic matters — including questions about how President Obama intends to reduce Washington’s giant budget deficit — the leaders meeting on Thursday and Friday will face new challenges concerning nuclear safety after the meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant in Japan and how to help along the Arab Spring in North Africa and the Middle East, even as the NATO-led war in Libya drags expensively and bloodily toward stalemate.]

 

By Steven Erlanger And Liz Alderman
Image: Seattlepi.com
PARIS — The euro crisis hangs over the meeting of the Group of 8 industrialized countries that begins on Thursday, with Greece’s renewed problems destabilizing markets, worrying Washington and influencing the debate over who should be the next managing director of the International Monetary Fund.
As President Obama arrived in the French seaside resort of Deauville on Thursday for what is normally more of an informal session on security issues, the continuing problems of the euro and the divisions it is causing inside Europe are threatening to harm the West’s uneven recovery.
The European Union and the I.M.F. have tried for the last year to calm the bond markets. But demonstrations against harsh austerity measures in Spain, Portugal and Greece; bickering among European leaders over Greece’s financial problems; and the European Central Bank’s fierce opposition to any restructuring of Greek debt have all conspired to send bond rates soaring in the last week.
Some analysts, like Bruce Stokes of the German Marshall Fund in Washington, suggest that the problems of the euro could put the recovery of the United States at risk. “If the European crisis gets worse again, the United States will have fewer tools to fight off the contagion,” he wrote in The National Journal.
“For the United States, the euro is a big concern,” said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel, an economics research institute in Brussels, and a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute in Washington. “The Americans want to avoid systemic instability.”
For that reason, Mr. Véron suggested, the Europeans want a new head of the I.M.F. in place quickly, and in keeping with tradition they want a European. They have largely united around the French finance minister, Christine Lagarde, 55, an English-speaking lawyer, who announced her candidacy on Wednesday.
American officials have called for an open process and praised both Ms. Lagarde and a Mexican candidate, Agustín Carstens, as “credible,” Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said on Wednesday. But he also said that Washington was working with all partners to ensure that the fund “reflects the balance of power in the world today.”
The Group of 8 has been overshadowed by the larger and more economically oriented Group of 20, in which fast-growing emerging nations like China, India, Brazil and South Africa also sit at the table, reflecting the shifting balance of power in the global economy.
“The competition for global leadership is bigger than before the financial crisis,” said Jan Techau, the director of Carnegie Europe, the European office of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Similarly, David Shorr of the United States-based Stanley Foundation, said that “the G-8 bears a burden of proof to show its relevance and influence in today’s world of shifting political and economic power.” As a “club of the Western old guard,” he asked, “does it have enough key global players at the table to tackle the big challenges?”
In addition to economic matters — including questions about how President Obama intends to reduce Washington’s giant budget deficit — the leaders meeting on Thursday and Friday will face new challenges concerning nuclear safety after the meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant in Japan and how to help along the Arab Spring in North Africa and the Middle East, even as the NATO-led war in Libya drags expensively and bloodily toward stalemate.
One of the biggest issues will be how to invigorate Arab economies and create jobs in the face of a large demographic bulge of unemployed young people and continuing instability.
Mr. Obama has pledged to forgive as much as $1 billion in Egyptian debt and guarantee another $1 billion in financing for infrastructure and new jobs, even as Congress seeks to cut spending to deal with America’s own ballooning deficit.
France wants to push the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which was set up to help the economic and democratic transformation of Eastern Europe, to explore helping Egypt, Tunisia and other Mediterranean countries.
But Group of 8 leaders are likely to find themselves enmeshed in discussions over their own economic and political troubles, which are deepening as recovery in Europe and the United States remains feeble.
Greece’s troubles — and rising popular unhappiness with austerity programs there, as well as in Portugal and Spain — have shaken and divided European leaders. If Greek debt is not restructured and the country has no ability to raise money at reasonable interest rates in the private market, it would end up a ward of the European Union. Bond prices for Italian and Spanish debt are rising, as investors sense disagreement and confusion about Greece among euro zone leaders.
Mr. Stokes described the euro crisis as “a slow-motion train wreck since it erupted last year.” Despite billions of euros in loans to Greece, Portugal and Ireland, investors seem far from reassured that these economies can reform themselves and recover, or that any new contagion spawned by Greece will not hit even bigger economies.
In Spain, where unemployment is stuck above 20 percent and two million jobs have evaporated since the economic crisis hit, thousands of protesters — inspired by the Arab Spring — have been camped in Madrid for more than a week. Voters handed the governing Socialist Party heavy losses on Sunday in regional and municipal elections.
After Portugal finally went to the European Union and the I.M.F. for bailout loans, European officials felt that there was a “firebreak,” and that Spain, which had cut its deficit, would be safe. But now it is not so clear, and European Central Bank officials are arguing that if any form of restructuring of Greek debt goes ahead, Spain and Italy will quickly come under fire.