[Relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors have been frosty since 2019, when India conducted an airstrike in Pakistan after a terrorist attack killed 40 Indian troops in Kashmir. The two countries then engaged in their first aerial dogfight in nearly 50 years. Months later, India revoked Kashmir’s autonomy, further angering Pakistan.]
Military officials in the two
countries released a joint statement saying
they had agreed to a cease-fire that went into effect at midnight, including
along the unofficial frontier in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir.
Indian and Pakistani troops
regularly exchange artillery and small-arms fire in the region, a situation
that analysts have described
as a war by other means. The low-grade conflict is deadly, with dozens of villagers and military personnel killed
annually in recent years.
[India
and Pakistan trade fire in Kashmir, killing nine]
India accuses Pakistan of stoking a
three-decade-old insurgency against Indian rule in Kashmir by sending fighters
and arms across the frontier. Pakistan denies the accusations.
Relations between the two
nuclear-armed neighbors have been frosty since 2019, when India conducted an
airstrike in Pakistan after a terrorist attack killed 40 Indian troops in
Kashmir. The two countries then engaged in their first
aerial dogfight in nearly 50 years. Months later, India revoked Kashmir’s autonomy, further angering Pakistan.
Since then, cross-border firing has
intensified. There were more
than 5,000 such incidents in 2020, according to Indian government data, the
highest figure since 2002.
“You’re looking at a lot of loss of
life, with villagers getting killed on both sides,” said Happymon Jacob, a
professor of international studies and author of
a book on clashes between India and Pakistan in Kashmir.
The new agreement, if effective,
would be “pathbreaking,” Jacob said. It will reduce violence and allow both
countries to tell the international community that they are taking steps to
stabilize Kashmir, he said.
Near the highly militarized
frontier in Kashmir, the cease-fire announcement was a source of deep relief.
Syed Ahmad Habib, 47, lives on the Indian side of the line, but his home is so
close to the boundary that he can see houses in Pakistani-controlled territory.
“Someone who has not seen shells
rain down cannot imagine the kind of life we are living,” said Habib, 47, who
is from a village called Mandhar. A childhood friend died in shelling this
year, he said. “If it has stopped, I am glad.”
This is a “very positive” move,
said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a security analyst in Pakistan, who nevertheless
cautioned that it remains unclear whether the agreement will be implemented
successfully. If the firing ceases, Rizvi said, it opens the door to other
confidence-building measures, such as making it easier for people and goods to
travel between India and Pakistan.
In theory, a cease-fire agreement
already exists between the two countries, which share both an international
border and a 460-mile unofficial frontier in Kashmir known as the Line of
Control.
[Pakistan
captures Indian pilot after shooting down aircraft, escalating hostilities]
The cease-fire understanding was
announced in 2003, and for the next several years the Line of Control was
relatively quiet. But after terrorists killed more than 160 people in Mumbai in
2008 — an attack carried out
by a Pakistan-based militant group — incidents of cross-border firing
began to increase. Since 2014, they have soared tenfold, according to official
Indian data.
Indian officials have accused
Pakistan of using the shelling to give cover to militants crossing into
Indian-controlled territory, a charge that Pakistan denies. Commanders on both
sides have the autonomy to decide when to fire, Jacob said.
Thursday’s announcement comes as
India continues to grapple with tensions on a different border — the one to the
northeast, shared with China. India and China recently disengaged their troops from one sensitive area after a
months-long standoff that began with a deadly clash in June.
A period of calm on the border
between India and Pakistan could serve both countries’ interests, analysts
said. “It’s an important development,” said Arvind Gupta, a former deputy
national security adviser in India. “Whether it is tactical or something with long-term
consequences remains to be seen.”
Bashir Ahmad Wathloo, 45, lives
near the town of Uri on the Indian side of the Line of Control. His aunt was
killed three years ago when she was unable to flee falling shells with the rest
of the family.
On Thursday, Wathloo was sitting
with friends in front of a store, an activity he has avoided for more than a
year after shelling intensified. The mood was festive. It felt good to be
outside without fearing for one’s life, he said.
Shams Irfan in Hyderabad, India, and
Shaiq Hussain in Islamabad, Pakistan, contributed to this report.
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