[Under those more dire circumstances, the
Himalayas could heat up by 8 degrees Fahrenheit (4.4 degrees Celsius) by
century’s end, bringing radical disruptions to food and water supplies, and
mass population displacement.]
By
Kai Schultz and Bhadra Sharma
 |
|
The
Khumbu Glacier near Mount Everest in Nepal is one of the longest in the world.
Credit
Prakash Mathema/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
|
NEW
DELHI — Rising temperatures
in the Himalayas, home to most of the world’s tallest mountains, will melt at
least one-third of the region’s glaciers by the end of the century even if the
world’s most ambitious climate change targets are met, according to a report
released Monday.
If those goals are not achieved, and global
warming and greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rates, the
Himalayas could lose two-thirds of its glaciers by 2100, according to the
report, the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment.
Under those more dire circumstances, the
Himalayas could heat up by 8 degrees Fahrenheit (4.4 degrees Celsius) by
century’s end, bringing radical disruptions to food and water supplies, and
mass population displacement.
Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region,
which spans over 2,000 miles of Asia, provide water resources to around a
quarter of the world’s population.
“This is a climate crisis you have not heard
of,” said Philippus Wester, a lead author of the report. “Impacts on people in
the region, already one of the world’s most fragile and hazard-prone mountain
regions, will range from worsened air pollution to an increase in extreme
weather events.”
One of the most complete studies on mountain
warming, the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment was put together over five years by
210 authors. The report includes input from more than 350 researchers and
policymakers from 22 countries.
In October, a landmark report from the United
Nations’ scientific panel on climate change found that if greenhouse gas
emissions continued at the current rate, the atmosphere would warm by as much
as 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels by
2040.
Avoiding further damage from this rise would
require transforming the world economy at a speed and scale that has “no
documented historic precedent,” the report said.
In the Himalayas, warming under this scenario
would probably be even higher, at 3.8 degrees Fahrenheit (2.1 degrees Celsius),
the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment found. Across the world, glacier volumes are
projected to decline up to 90 percent this century from decreased snowfall,
increased snowline elevations and longer melt seasons.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment touches on
the phenomenon of elevation-dependent warming. Though it is well known that
temperature changes due to increased levels of greenhouse gases are amplified
at higher latitudes, like in the Arctic, there is growing evidence that warming
rates are also greater at higher elevations.
“Mountain people are really getting hit
hard,” said David Molden, the director general of the International Center for
Integrated Mountain Development, the research center near Kathmandu, Nepal’s
capital, that led the study. “We have to do something now.”
Around South Asia, the impact of climate
change has already intensified. Brutal heat waves are becoming unbearable,
making people sicker and poorer, and diminishing the living standards of 800
million people.
Access to water is also a concern. Last
spring, shortages were so severe in the Indian city of Shimla, in the
Himalayas, that some residents asked tourists to stop visiting so that they
would have enough water for themselves.
A government report released last year found
that India was experiencing the worst water crisis in its history. About half
of India’s population, around 600 million people, faced extreme water
scarcities, the report found, with 200,000 people dying each year from
inadequate access to safe water.
By 2030, the country’s demand for water is
likely to be twice the available supply.
In neighboring Nepal, rising temperatures
have already uprooted people. Snow cover is shrinking in mountain villages, and
rain patterns are less predictable. Fertile land once used for growing
vegetables has become barren.
“Water sources have dried up,” said Pasang
Tshering Gurung, a farmer from the village of Samjong, which is about 13,000
feet above sea level.
A few years ago, all 18 families in Samjong
moved to a village around 1,000 feet lower after their crops repeatedly failed.
But Mr. Gurung and his neighbors are still
worried. Landslides linked to increased flooding continue to thunder down
hillsides. The government has offered limited support for resettlement, he
said.
And with little money to spare, Mr. Gurung is
not sure where he would go next.
“We will be landless refugees,” he said. “How
can we survive in the Himalayas without water?”
Kai Schultz reported from New Delhi, and
Bhadra Sharma from Kathmandu, Nepal.
