[In both countries, a variety of observers said they feared that a sudden unilateral pullback of U.S. troops could usher in a period of political instability, give the Taliban insurgents extra power at the negotiating table or sabotage the peace talks entirely, and leave Afghanistan more vulnerable to violence and terrorist attacks.]
By Pamela Constable
 |
|
U.S.
troops keep watch during an official visit in Farah province, Afghanistan,
May
19, 2018. (James Mackenzie/Reuters)
|
ISLAMABAD,
Pakistan — Just a day ago,
Afghan officials were concerned that U.S. officials would make a too-hasty
agreement with Taliban insurgents and potentially undermine the country’s
security and democratic gains after 17 years of civilian rule.
But by Friday morning, the government of
President Ashraf Ghani was reeling from a much more concrete development: the
news that President Trump was suddenly considering a plan to withdraw half of
the 14,000 U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan.
Aides to Ghani, scrambling to fashion a
face-saving response, attempted to portray a potential massive reversal of U.S.
military policy as no big deal, even as many observers in Afghanistan and
elsewhere expressed growing alarm.
Shortly after noon, Harun Chakhansuri, a top
spokesman for Ghani, said on an Afghan TV news station that such a drawdown
would have no major impact on Afghanistan’s ability to defend itself. He said
most of the U.S. forces likely to be withdrawn “are engaged in a training and
advising mission for Afghan forces, and Afghan forces are capable of defending
the country.”
Several hours later, Fazl Fazili, another
aide to Ghani, echoed that assessment, tweeting that the departure of a “few
thousand” foreign military advisers would not affect Afghan security. In a
second tweet, he said that since 2014, when most U.S. combat forces left the
country, those who predicted a military collapse were proven wrong, and “our
brave defense & security forces . . . defended the nation with great valor.”
The optimistic comments contrasted sharply
with the alarmed reactions and dire predictions Friday of analysts, former
officials and political figures in Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan.
In both countries, a variety of observers
said they feared that a sudden unilateral pullback of U.S. troops could usher
in a period of political instability, give the Taliban insurgents extra power
at the negotiating table or sabotage the peace talks entirely, and leave
Afghanistan more vulnerable to violence and terrorist attacks.
Many drew comparisons to the United States’
inattention to Afghanistan after the end of Soviet military occupation in 1989,
which led to a government collapse in Kabul, a destructive civil war among
ethnic militias and a huge exodus of refugees.
“A U.S. military drawdown will strengthen the
Taliban’s position in the peace negotiations and precipitate political chaos in
Kabul,” putting a constitutional transfer of power through elections in doubt,
said Haroon Mir, a political analyst in the Afghan capital. Regional powers
will again jockey for influence, but none will be able to “fill the political
or economic vacuum left after a U.S. exit,” he said. “Ultimately, history will
repeat itself.”
The
Afghan security forces have continued to struggle with numerous problems,
including high-level corruption and low reenlistment rates, despite extra help
from U.S. advisers sent in last year. Afghan soldiers and police have suffered
record-high casualties this year as Taliban forces have attacked aggressively
in numerous areas of the country.
Naqi Farooqi, 24, an unemployed law school
graduate in Kabul, said he feared that the pullback of U.S. forces would allow
the return of Taliban rule and the shutting down of social and press freedoms,
which the country has enjoyed since the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001.
“The Taliban will come if the U.S. troops
withdraw,” said Farooqi, who was waiting with friends for an Indian film
showing at a movie theater. “People do not want the Taliban back. The U.S.
forces should stay longer until Afghanistan can stand on its feet, economically
and militarily,” he said.
In Pakistan, a senior official at the Foreign
Ministry offered an almost identical view to that of Mir, adding that Pakistan
could face an additional burden if political turmoil or insecurity were to send
a new wave of Afghans fleeing across the border. He spoke on the condition of
anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the topic.
“Any troop withdrawal or major reduction in
their number before peace is restored would be a very unwise move,” the
official said. “It would bring chaos and disorder, more fighting and perhaps a
civil war. He noted that after the United States turned away from Afghanistan
in 1989, “Pakistan, too, had to bear the brunt of what happened” amid the
turmoil that followed. “We would not like to see a repeat of that.”
Mushahid Hussain, chairman of Pakistan’s
Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said a U.S. troop drawdown would be “an
admission of defeat in America’s longest war” and “the biggest military setback
for the U.S.” since the fall of Saigon in 1975. He said it would increase
Washington’s dependence on Pakistan as a force for peace in Afghanistan and
could lead to a postponement of Afghan elections “to pave the way” for a broad
unity government including the Taliban.
Until recently, U.S. officials have accused
Pakistan of paying lip service to peace talks while harboring anti-Afghan
Taliban militia forces. But in recent months, under a new prime minister,
Pakistan has worked to convince the United States of its sincere interest in
peace and sent representatives to talks last week in the United Arab Emirates
with U.S., Saudi and Taliban delegations.
Observers in Afghanistan and Pakistan said
they could not understand why Trump would suddenly decide to withdraw thousands
of troops at a time when negotiations were finally beginning to gain traction.
The Taliban has long demanded a total departure of U.S. forces, but many other
issues are on the table, and the insurgents seemed to show their seriousness by
sending an unusually senior group to the UAE talks
Amrullah Saleh, a former chief of the Afghan
intelligence agency, said in an email that Trump’s plan to cut back troops
shows that he sees Afghanistan as a “burden, not a strategic and necessary
ally.” He said there has been “no progress” in peace talks and “no sign” of
Pakistan halting support to the Taliban, and that now the country faces an
added threat of diminished U.S. military assistance.
“Maybe it will be the end for the U.S., but a
bitter beginning for us,” he said.
Constable reported from Islamabad. Sayed
Salahuddin and Sharif Hassan in Kabul and Shaiq Hussain in Islamabad
contributed to this report.
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