[Several Indian leaders since the country’s independence in 1947 have grappled with the population question. In the 1970s, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi carried out a controversial mass sterilization drive. Population control measures — and the difference in birthrates between India’s religious groups — remain one of the most polarizing issues in domestic politics today.]
By Gerry Shih
India’s most recent National Family
Health Survey, which is conducted every five years by the Health Ministry,
was released Wednesday and showed the total fertility rate (TFR) across India
dropping to 2.0 in 2019-2021, compared with 2.2 in 2015-2016. A country with a
TFR of 2.1, known as the replacement rate, would maintain a stable population
over time; a lower TFR means the population would decrease in the absence of
other factors, such as immigration.
The figures were hailed as a
heartening signal by government officials and researchers in a country that is
expected to overtake China to become the world’s most populous sometime this
decade. Since the mid-20th century, Indian leaders have tried to curb high
birthrates, which are often reversely correlated with women’s welfare metrics
and economic progress. A burgeoning population is seen, in the longer term, as
a hurdle to development and a driver of environmental degradation and
greenhouse gas emissions.
[In
India, a debate over population control turns explosive]
Indian fertility rates have been
trending downward for the last two decades as the country grew richer,
underwent rapid urbanization, and rolled out programs that provide
contraceptives and family planning education. But the progress shown in just
the last two national surveys has been significant, demographers said.
“This is of course good news,” said
Nandita Saikia, a professor of public health at the International Institute for
Population Studies (IIPS) in Mumbai. “It indicates there has been some kind of
transformation in the last four years in socioeconomic conditions.”
India’s population has been
expected to overtake China’s sometime around the year 2027. That date “could be
delayed if this trend continues,” Saikia added, “but not for long.”
The dropping fertility rate does
not mean India’s population is already decreasing, but rather its growth rate
is slowing. India’s population, which stands at just under 1.4 billion, will
continue to rise beyond the year 2050 and peak at over 1.6 billion before
stabilizing and returning to about 1.4 billion by 2100, according to United
Nations projections.
Several Indian leaders since the
country’s independence in 1947 have grappled with the population question. In
the 1970s, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi carried out a controversial mass
sterilization drive. Population control measures — and the difference in
birthrates between India’s religious groups — remain one of the most polarizing issues in domestic politics today.
The declining fertility rate
observed in recent years was backed by an uptick in several key indicators,
demographers said. The proportion of women who used contraceptives rose from 54
to 67 percent, according to the national survey, while those who reported an
unmet need for contraceptives fell. The proportion of teenage marriages has
also decreased, according to the study, while there has been an improvement in
the gender balance of newborns in a country with a deeply held preference for sons. For every 1,000 baby
boys, there are now 929 baby girls, up from 919 girls five years ago.
In cities across India — as in
other countries — women are opting for fewer children: The urban fertility rate
is 1.6.
The study showed the long-standing
gap between India’s north and south widening: The large, poor tracts that line
the northern Ganges River continue to show high fertility rates, with women in
Bihar state having an average of three children each. Southern states including
Tamil Nadu and Karnataka had fertility rates below the replacement rate.
“This is not saying the country’s
problems of unemployment, inequality, education, and everything else are
automatically over,” said Sanjay Kumar Mohanty, the head of population policies
at IIPS. “But population is no longer a top priority concern.”
Read more:
India will have the world’s largest population earlier than
expected, U.N. says
In China and India, men outnumber women on a massive scale
India will have world’s largest population earlier than
expected
