[The government has staked its
political legitimacy on controlling the virus better than other countries,
especially its geopolitical rivals.]
By Vivian Wang
Then, on Oct. 16, the day they had
planned to visit the Terracotta Warriors, the couple tested positive for the
coronavirus.
Since then, China has locked
down a city of 4 million, as well as several smaller cities and parts of Beijing,
to contain
a fresh outbreak that has infected more than 240 people in at least 11
provinces and regions. The authorities have shuttered schools and tourist
sites. Government websites have detailed every movement of the unlucky couple and
their sprawling web of contacts, including what time they checked into hotels
and on which floors of restaurants they sat.
The no-holds-barred response is
emblematic of China’s “zero Covid” policy, which has served the country
remarkably well: China has reported fewer than 5,000 deaths since the pandemic
began. The scale of the new outbreak, while tiny compared to many other
countries, is large for China.
But the policy has also,
increasingly, made China an outlier. The rest of the world is reopening,
including New Zealand and Australia, which also once embraced zero tolerance.
China is now the only country still chasing full eradication of the virus.
“Every locality should firmly
adhere to the policy of ‘Defend externally against importation, defend
internally against rebound,’” Mi Feng, a spokesman for the National Health
Commission, said at a news conference on Sunday. “The current control measures
cannot be relaxed.”
The government’s strict strategy is
the product of a uniquely Chinese set of calculations. Its thriving exports
have helped to keep the economy afloat. The ruling Communist Party’s tight grip
on power enables lockdowns and testing to be carried out with astonishing
efficiency. Beijing is set to host the Winter Olympics in February.
For many Chinese, the low case
numbers have become a source of national pride. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has
repeatedly pointed to the country’s success in containment as proof of the
superiority of its governance model.
But experts — both in China and
abroad — have warned that the approach is unsustainable. China may find itself
increasingly isolated, diplomatically and economically, at a time when global
public opinion is hardening against it.
“The regime thinks it needs to
maintain a ‘zero Covid’ policy to maintain its legitimacy,” said Lynette Ong, a political
scientist at the University of Toronto. “At a huge cost, though.”
In the early phase of the pandemic,
the Chinese Communist Party’s very hold on power seemed to hinge on its ability
to control the virus. Its initial attempts to cover up the outbreak in Wuhan
gave rise to a stunning outpouring of public anger. Images of overwhelmed
hospitals and patients begging for help flooded the Chinese internet.
As the virus barreled across the
rest of the world, that narrative changed. China’s strict lockdowns and mass
testing campaigns, once criticized as heavy handed, became models for other
countries. As deaths mounted in western democracies, Mr. Xi repeatedly
emphasized how quickly China had flattened its caseload. Outrage about the
initial response to Wuhan gave way to at-times
strident nationalism.
Other countries that adopted “zero
Covid” policies were hailed
as models of competent governance that prioritized saving lives over
convenience and economic growth.
As the virus has dragged into its
second year, and with the onset of the far more contagious Delta variant,
countries are again reconsidering their strategies. Australia, which was home
to the world’s longest lockdown, is scrapping quarantine requirements for
vaccinated residents returning from overseas. New Zealand formally abandoned
its quest for zero this month. Singapore is offering quarantine-free travel to vaccinated tourists from
Germany, the United States, France and several other countries.
China has refused to change tack.
When Zhang Wenhong, a prominent infectious disease expert from Shanghai, suggested
this summer that China learn to live with the virus, he was attacked viciously online as a lackey of foreigners. A
former Chinese health minister called such a mindset reckless.
Professor Ong said the government
was afraid of any challenge to its narrative of pandemic triumph.
“Outbreaks have become so
commonplace that it’s really a non-event,” she said. “But the Chinese
authorities want to control any small potential source of instability.”
There are also more practical
reasons for China’s hesitation. Medical resources are highly concentrated in
big cities, and more remote areas could quickly be overwhelmed by an uptick in
cases, said Zhang Jun, an urban studies scholar at the City University
of Hong Kong.
In addition, though China has
achieved a relatively high full inoculation rate, at 75
percent of its population, questions have emerged about the efficacy
of its homegrown vaccines.
And, at least for now, the
elimination strategy appears to enjoy public support. While residents in locked-down
areas have complained about seemingly arbitrary or overly harsh restrictions on
social media, travel is relatively unconstrained in areas without cases.
Wealthy consumers have poured money into luxury goods and fancy
cars since they’re not spending on trips abroad.
“As long as they can still feel a
certain level of freedom of mobility, I think that kind of Covid-zero policy
doesn’t strike the domestic audience as too severe,” Professor Zhang said.
Other governments that have chosen
to live with the virus may yet lose their nerve. After lifting many
restrictions this summer, Singapore reinstated
them in September amid a spike in infections. (Still, the government
is moving forward with travel lanes.)
But experts agree that the costs of
expecting zero cases will hit eventually. China’s economic
growth is slowing, and domestic travel during a weeklong holiday earlier
this month fell below last year’s levels, as a cluster of new cases
spooked tourists. Retail sales have proven fitful, recovering and ebbing with
waves of the virus.
The country may also suffer
diplomatically. Mr. Xi has not left China or received foreign visitors
since early 2020, even as other world leaders prepare to gather in Rome for a
Group of 20 summit and Glasgow for climate talks.
China’s hard-nosed approach is also
trickling down to Hong Kong, the semi-autonomous territory and global financial
hub. In trying to align their own Covid prevention policies with the
mainland’s, Hong Kong’s leaders have introduced the world’s longest
quarantine, ignoring
escalating warnings from business leaders about an exodus of foreign
firms.
And even those supportive of the
restrictions wonder whether there is an exit strategy.
“I think the current policies are
still in the right direction,” said Jason Qiu, 27, who grew up in Gansu
Province, not far from Lanzhou, the city of 4 million now under lockdown. “But
if things go on like this for a long time — for example if the pandemic is
going to continue for another five or 10 years, or become endemic — maybe it
would be time to consider changing some measures.”
In a potential nod to those
concerns, some officials have broached the idea of loosening restrictions,
though cautiously. Gao Fu, the head of China’s Center for Disease Control and
Prevention, said in a recent interview with Chinese media that
once the country reached an 85 percent vaccination rate, “why shouldn’t we open
up?”
Until then, those stranded by the
lockdowns have been trying to make the best of their situations. State news
outlets have reported that roughly 10,000 tourists are trapped in
Ejin Banner, a region of Inner Mongolia, after the emergence of cases led to a
lockdown. As consolation, the local tourism association has promised them free entry to
three popular tourist attractions, redeemable within the next three years.
Liu Yi and Joy
Dong contributed research.
