[Moscow initially took a warmer tone toward the Taliban after it regained power. Russia was one of four countries that did not immediately evacuate Kabul embassy staff. Its ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, said at the time that “the current situation in Kabul is better than under Ashraf Ghani,” the Afghan president who fled the country.]
By Isabelle
Khurshudyan and Susannah George
“Afghanistan itself is not of
interest to Russia,” said Andrei Serenko, the head of the Moscow-based Center
of Contemporary Afghan Studies. “Russia wants to use Afghanistan without
getting involved in Afghanistan.”
Russia’s gambit will be tested
Wednesday as it hosts Taliban envoys for multinational talks on the security
and political situation in Afghanistan. Russian President Vladimir Putin has
cautioned that “there should be no hurry” to officially recognize the Taliban’s
governance of Afghanistan.
But the meeting offers another
stage for the Taliban to open international channels.
Taliban leadership will attend the
meeting to present its “point of view,” spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in a statement Tuesday. Since the takeover of
Afghanistan two months go, Taliban leaders have visited a handful of countries
in an effort to secure international recognition, in part to avert an economic
catastrophe.
Earlier this month, U.S. officials
held talks with a Taliban delegation in Doha, Qatar, to discuss security issues
and safe passage for those seeking to leave the country.
[U.S.
allies and adversaries are holding off for now on recognizing, aiding the
Taliban]
The Moscow talks, in various
configurations, aim to be far broader, with participants expected to include
China, Pakistan, India and Iran. The United States, though invited, is not
attending.
No potential breakthroughs are on
the agenda, Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s presidential representative for
Afghanistan, said
on Friday, although he added that there will be “a candid conversation
behind closed doors.”
In talks involving representatives
of Russia, China and Pakistan on Tuesday, the countries “expressed joint interest
in providing urgent humanitarian and economic assistance” for Afghanistan,
according to a statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry.
After the Taliban’s takeover,
Afghanistan was hit with international economic restrictions and cuts in
development aid — billions of dollars that helped the previous government
provide basic services. The moves threaten to push millions more Afghans into
poverty and destabilize Taliban rule.
During previous international
visits, the Taliban has faced questions over its past human rights abuses and
severe restrictions imposed on women and girls.
For Russia, perhaps more important
than the substance of Wednesday’s meeting is that it’s happening at Russia’s
initiative, analysts said.
Moscow wants to appear as the key
mediator in matters concerning Afghanistan, said Serenko, noting that Russia
still feels the sting of the humiliating withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989
after a 10-year occupation of Afghanistan.
He said Russia’s top priority,
however, is using the new regional security concerns to increase its influence
in Central Asia, an area where Moscow competes for sway with Beijing.
[The
world should unfreeze Afghanistan’s reserves and pour in aid to rebuild the
country, Russia says]
As the Taliban swept into Kabul in
August with U.S.-backed Afghan forces in disarray, Russian armored vehicles
appeared at the Afghanistan border with Tajikistan for military exercises — a
signal from Moscow that it can fill the security void in the region with the
Americans now gone.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said
this month that Russia’s “Central Asian friends” have assured Moscow that they
do not want U.S. military units stationed on their territory. The
U.S. military maintains partnerships with some Central Asian nations but no
longer has the temporary footholds in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan established
after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Moscow initially took a warmer tone
toward the Taliban after it regained power. Russia was one of four countries
that did not immediately evacuate Kabul embassy staff. Its ambassador to
Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, said at the time that “the current situation in
Kabul is better than under Ashraf Ghani,” the Afghan president who fled the
country.
Putin encouraged other countries to
establish good-neighbor relations with Afghanistan’s new leaders in the days
after the Taliban takeover. But last week, he expressed skepticism that the
Taliban will stanch drug production and said the threat of terrorism in the
region has increased. Recent bombings in Afghanistan have raised concerns
that the Taliban is unable to curb other militant and terrorist groups, mainly
the Islamic State.
[Suicide
bombers hit Shiite mosque in Afghanistan killing dozens — the second such
attack in a week]
Russian officials have said they’re
preparing to send humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, but it is expected to be
modest compared with other countries’ financial support. The Taliban remains on
Russia’s list of banned terrorist organizations.
As for diplomatically recognizing
the Taliban, Putin told a virtual summit of former Soviet republics on Friday,
“We realize that we have to interact with them, but there is no need to jump
the gun.”
In Turkey, Amir Khan Muttaqi, the
Taliban’s acting foreign minister, told journalists that lack of recognition
for the group will benefit other militants in Afghanistan, including the
Islamic State.
Muttaqi also called the economic
restrictions imposed on Afghanistan a violation of human rights that would
ultimately hurt only Afghan citizens.
Though Russia has hosted Taliban
officials several times in recent years, Serenko said Moscow doesn’t hold much
sway with the group, especially with the Haqqani network, considered one of the
Taliban’s most influential and feared factions.
The Taliban was invited two weeks
ago to Wednesday’s talks, but it didn’t accept until Friday.
“This conference is not about
Afghanistan,” Serenko said. “It’s all about Russia. Russia wants to show the
Americans that without Russia, the Afghanistan problem won’t be solved.”
George reported from Islamabad,
Pakistan. Haq Nawaz Khan in Peshawar, Pakistan, contributed to this report.
Read more
Russia
sees potential cooperation with Taliban, but also prepares for the worst
