[The looming energy crisis in Asia, Europe and even possibly the United States is the product of a complicated set of factors, ranging from a dip in hydro- and wind-generated power to a spike in energy demands as industries whirred back into action after the pandemic-induced downturn. But skeptics of the broader climate agenda espoused by the convening powers at U.N.'s COP26 summit see the current moment as a warning to governments about the inherent risks of the current energy transition. In Europe, some countries have scrambled to counteract protests over rising prices, while natural gas suppliers in Russia, Qatar and elsewhere may gain all the more leverage as colder temperatures set in.]
According to a report
this summer from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
humans can unleash only about 500 additional gigatons of carbon dioxide — the equivalent
of about 10 years of current global emissions — to even have a chance of
hitting that target. In other words, COP26 is happening not a moment too soon, as the urgency to transition away
from carbon-intensive fossil fuels grows all the more acute. Alok Sharma, the
designated British president of the summit, has said rich powers must use the moment to “consign coal
to history.”
But, in the short term, other
pressures may stall the momentum toward such action. In various parts of the
world, governments are reckoning with a severe rise in energy prices. Surging
costs for natural gas and shortages of coal have led to significant spikes in
the price of electricity — tripling from the previous year in some European countries.
The prospect of a cold winter with skyrocketing heating bills may weigh far
more heavily on most people’s minds than the distant, abstracted calculations
that guide climate action.
“The energy supply crisis is
showing how difficult ending the dependence on fossil fuels would be,” Bloomberg News noted. “China is driving demand for
coal as it tries to secure the fuel to keep the lights on and factories
running. Europe, which remains reliant on gas supplies from Russia, is seeing
its companies seeking more
coal for electricity generation ahead of winter with gas prices at
record highs and supply hard to come by.”
In China, authorities have mandated
the rationing of the power supply throughout several of the
country’s provinces. Economic forecasters warn that the subsequent loss of
industrial output may have an impact that ripples through a global economy
already snarled by supply chain issues. “China’s power shortages have global
implications,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at global financial services
group Nomura, told the Financial Times. “Global markets will feel the
pinch of a shortage of supply from textiles, toys to machine parts … [and] very
likely result in a shortage of goods for Thanksgiving and Christmas.”
The looming energy crisis in Asia,
Europe and even possibly the United States is the product of a complicated set
of factors, ranging from a dip in hydro- and wind-generated power to a spike in
energy demands as industries whirred back into action after the
pandemic-induced downturn. But skeptics of the broader climate agenda espoused
by the convening powers at U.N.'s COP26 summit see the current moment as a
warning to governments about the inherent risks of the current energy
transition. In Europe, some countries have scrambled to counteract protests over rising prices,
while natural gas suppliers in Russia, Qatar and elsewhere may gain all the more leverage as colder temperatures set
in.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor
Orban — a constant critic of E.U. liberalism — blamed the rise in prices on the European Union’s
green agenda. He’s not alone in voicing his disquiet.
“We need to now recognize that
decarbonization will only work when you’ve much more fully decarbonized,” Bim
Afolami, a Conservative member of Britain’s parliament, told Bloomberg News. “This shows being in a transition
phase — a half-in, half-out approach — leaves you vulnerable in this way.”
“The current European Commission
has turned energy policy into a mere subset of climate policy, with little
attention paid to supply security or energy affordability,” energy analyst Brenda Shaffer wrote in Foreign Policy.
“While major new sources of natural gas have been found in proximity to Europe
— in the Eastern Mediterranean, for example — European leaders have bowed to
activist pressure and not seriously pursued any of these newly available
sources.”
But climate action advocates see
the current volatility as evidence for doubling down on the transition to
renewable energies. “In the long run, we see that the economy is
decoupling from its dependence on fossil fuels,” Tom Sanzillo of the Institute
for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis told Today’s WorldView, adding that
policymakers and business leaders have to get to grips with the “managed
decline” of the fossil fuel industry.
The data shows that renewable
energy in its various forms is getting inexorably cheaper to produce. A new report from
the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that electricity
generated from zero-carbon emission sources helped reduce Britain’s and the
E.U.'s gas bill by tens of billions of dollars. “Skyrocketing prices is an
incentive to get out of fossil fuels,” Sanzillo said.
Leading European politicians
preparing for COP26 concur. They believe that the transition to
more renewable energies will in the long run help protect European customers
from the vagaries of oil and gas markets. “The wrong response to
this would be to slow down the transition to renewable energy,” Frans
Timmermans, the E.U.'s climate chief, said at a meeting of
environmental ministers this week. “The right response is to keep the momentum
and perhaps even look for ways to increase the momentum.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken
echoed that rhetoric. “We’re in the midst of a lengthy transition to renewables
of various kinds, away from fossil fuels,” he said during an interview Wednesday. “During that transition you
can have challenging, bumpy patches before you actually get to the point where
you have all of these renewable energies that are online and able to fill the
gap.”
Read more:
The world is questioning Washington’s competence, fearing
prospect of U.S. default
The
Pandora Papers’ political fallout grows
Germany’s
election casts U.S. democracy in harsh light
