[When
Australia’s leader demanded an apology for a tweet by a Chinese official, his
response reflected the insecurities facing many countries in dealing with
China.]
By Damien Cave
Now,
Australia is sounding an even louder alarm. Prime Minister Scott Morrison,
already vexed by China’s blockade
of Australian imports — wine, coal, barley and cotton — demanded on
Monday that the Chinese government apologize for a lurid tweet showing an
Australian soldier with a knife at the neck of an Afghan child. The world, he
warned, was watching.
But
even as he elevated a Twitter post to a four-alarm diplomatic fire, he also
called for a reset with Beijing, reiterating that Australia’s end game was
still “the happy coexistence of two partners.” In that somersault, Mr. Morrison
inadvertently let the world hear Australia’s internal dialogue of doubt — one
that echoes around the globe as China increasingly asserts its might.
The
prime minister gave voice to the insecurities and anxieties that come with
being caught between two superpowers. Those jitters are partly about the
limited options in the face of China’s tightening vise. But they are also about
an America in flux.
At
a time when Australia’s favored nation status with the Trump White House is
about to expire, there is widespread concern that a Biden administration will
focus less on America’s Pacific partners and more on rebuilding ties in Europe.
That has pushed Australia deeper into a position of pleading for help in corralling
China even as it beats its chest for sovereignty.
“On
one level, the prime minister’s reaction was completely reasonable. On another,
it’s at the upper limit of what’s acceptable without making things worse,” said
John Blaxland, a professor of international security at the Australian National
University. “He’s got to tread a very fine line because Australia’s leverage is
limited.”
The
country’s entire history since settlement has been shaped by unquestioned
dependence on an alliance with a distant and dominant power, first England,
then the United States. The prospect of an end to that stability, with American
decline or indifference and Chinese dominance, fills most Australians with
dread.
David
Brophy, a senior lecturer in modern Chinese history at the University of
Sydney, said it had created a counterintuitive dynamic. China often condemns
Australia for doing America’s bidding, when in fact, Australia is trying
desperately to cajole the United States into deeper engagement.
“The
American presence in Asia is more important for Australia than it is for
America,” Mr. Brophy said. “When Australia sees any hint of withdrawal, as we
saw at the beginning of the Trump administration, it stirs up this sense of
panic. It’s not enough to wait for the U.S. to get back in the game; Australia
has to show it can do more and will do more.”
Increasingly,
that has meant tolerating economic pain and abandoning the approach Australia
has long followed with China — say little and do what must be done. Mr.
Morrison’s government and China’s propaganda machine have instead been trading
blows and turns at the microphone.
Geoff
Raby, a former Australian ambassador to China, described it as a
self-perpetuating cycle of paranoid provocation.
“They
are each confirming the other’s worst suspicions,” he said.
Whispered
complaints are out, replaced by competing news conferences and laundry lists of
grievances. Australia has launched two foreign interference investigations with
high-profile raids. It now plans to file a lawsuit with the World Trade
Organization over China’s blocking of barley imports — one of many products
that China has rejected as tensions have soared.
Two
weeks ago, in turn, a pair of Chinese Embassy officials summoned an Australian
reporter to a meeting and delivered a set of 14 grievances. They included academic
visa cancellations, “a crusade” against China’s policies in Hong Kong, a call
for an independent investigation into the origins of Covid-19, a ban on Huawei
in 2018, and the blocking of 10 Chinese foreign investment deals.
“If
you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy,” one of the officials said.
Zhao
Lijian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (and the
official who posted the doctored photo), called at the time for Australia to
“reflect on this seriously, rather than shirking the blame and deflecting
responsibility.”
That,
of course, is exactly what the Australian government has demanded from China
with the coronavirus inquiry, which Beijing treated like a dropped grenade.
Explosive
exchanges and accusations of hypocrisy now seem to come in volleys.
The
tweet from Mr. Zhao, a known provocateur, had an obvious goal: to deflect
criticism of China’s human rights abuses by sensationalizing an investigation
by the Australian military that found its troops had unlawfully killed
39 Afghan civilians and prisoners over an 11-year period.
Mr.
Morrison could have ignored the provocation. Instead, he pounced, and after Mr.
Morrison’s apology demand, the Chinese government paid little mind to his
request for a reset and dialogue. The official response arrived a few hours
later when a government spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, suggested that Australia
seemed to be indifferent to the killings.
“The
Australian side is reacting so strongly to my colleague’s tweet. Does this mean
they think the cruel killing of Afghan lives is justified?” Ms. Hua said.
An
editorial in the state-run Global Times added: “The Morrison administration is
making Australia provocative and wanting a spanking.” And on Tuesday, China
accused Australia of intentionally “misreading” the tweet to deflect criticism.
Beyond
the juvenile threats lies a more serious and intractable disconnect.
In
the eyes of China’s most nationalist ideologues, Australia is violating the
most basic rule of China’s rise: If you get rich with our help, stay quiet and
grateful.
Few
countries have gained as much wealth from China’s growth as Australia, and since
coming to power in 2012, Xi Jinping has made clear that he expects silence and
harmony from all who benefit from the Chinese Communist Party’s prosperity.
“Never
allow singing to a tune contrary to the party center,” he
once wrote in comments that appeared on party and university websites
in 2014. “Never allow eating the Communist Party’s food and then smashing the
Communist Party’s cooking pots.”
In
the case of Mr. Zhao’s tweet, Mr. Xi has said nothing — further highlighting
the asymmetry of Mr. Morrison’s complaint about a spokesman’s social media
post.
To
some of Mr. Morrison’s critics, the photo looked like internet trolling that he
should have ignored or responded to at a lower level.
“They
seem to have intended to make Morrison angry, and to goad him into exactly the
kind of emotional response that he has now given them,” said Hugh White, a
former intelligence official who teaches strategic studies at the Australian
National University. “And that is worrying. In any fight like this one, be very
careful not to do what your adversary wants you to do.”
Whether
Mr. Morrison gets any aid from the United States or elsewhere, Mr. White added,
the episode has already made Australia and Mr. Morrison “look rattled and
weak.”
That
makes China look more powerful and intimidating.
“The
folks in Beijing do not want us to like them,” Mr. White said. “They want us to
understand their power and their willingness to use it. Our problem is that we
are being rather slow to realize that their power is real.”
Chris
Buckley contributed reporting.
