[Rights groups say
poll, which Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD is expected to win, is ‘fundamentally flawed’]
While
Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy rose to victory on a wave of
optimism in 2015, this year’s elections are overshadowed by the coronavirus
pandemic, an economic crisis and intense conflict in parts of the country –
where the military has been accused
of atrocities reminiscent of those inflicted on Rohingya in 2017.
It
is widely expected that the NLD will retain power, thanks to the popularity of
its leader. Many in the Bamar majority revere her as the mother of the nation,
her popularity boosted further by her decision to travel to The Hague last year
and defend
Myanmar against allegations of genocide. There is, however, growing apathy,
and deep resentment among ethnic minorities.
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An
estimated 1.5 million voters from ethnic minorities in conflict-affected areas
will not be allowed to participate in the election, ostensibly because of security
concerns. Among them are many Rakhine Buddhists in Rakhine state, who were able
to vote in 2015, but are now disenfranchised. In addition, about 1.1
million Rohingya,
who have long been denied citizenship and voting rights, will be excluded.
Human
Rights Watch has expressed concern over such restrictions and described the
election as “fundamentally flawed”.
The
decision to stop voting for many communities in conflict-stricken areas is
likely to fuel already intense clashes.
According
to David Mathieson, an independent analyst, it handed a propaganda coup to the
Arakan Army, which is fighting one of the country’s most lethal insurgencies in
Rakhine state.
“[They
will say] we told you that you cannot trust the political system, we told you
not to trust the government and the military. The only way to get her attention
is to fight,” he said. Voting had been cancelled even in areas where fighting
was limited, Mathieson added.
About
38 million people will be eligible to go to the polls, including 5 million
young, first-time voters, while 90 parties will compete with the NLD.
Under
the constitution, a quarter of parliamentary seats are reserved for the
military. This week the army chief asserted his power in a rare interview,
accusing the civilian government of “unacceptable mistakes” in the run-up to
the election. The commander-in-chief, Min Aung Hlaing, described the military
as the “guardian” of the country.
Voter
turnout is expected to be lower than in 2015, partly because of increased
apathy. One fringe group, All Burma Federation of Students Unions, has called
for a boycott, accusing the government of failing to deliver democratic
reforms.
Some
of its members face up to five years in prison for their involvement in
anti-government protests, while dozens are in hiding, according to reports by
Reuters news agency.
Fears
over coronavirus may also deter some people from going to the polls. Aung San
Suu Kyi decided to push ahead with an election despite a rise in cases in
August.
“A
lot of people including myself would have liked her to postpone the elections
for just a month,” said Khin Zaw Win, the director of Tampadipa Institute in
Yangon. Restrictions imposed to curb the outbreak have made it harder for
smaller, ethnic-based parties, which lack access to state-based media, to carry
out campaigning.
Despite
this, Gar, a 30-year-old voter who did not want to give her full name, believes
more people will turn towards ethnic-based parties, and dent the NLD’s
majority. “I am excited that this 2020 election will show that people believe
in more than just one political party,” she said.
The
country faces many challenges, Gar said, adding: “Civil wars in northern
Myanmar, war crimes, International Court of Justice cases [where Myanmar is accused of
genocide against Rohingya Muslims] and media freedom.
“I
don’t feel optimistic seeing how these cases are not handled properly. What
kind of person can feel optimistic knowing all these are messed up?”
Moe
Thuzar, the coordinator of the Myanmar studies programme at the ISEAS-Yusof
Ishak Institute in Singapore, said the vote was an important moment in the
transition from strict military rule. She added: “Despite the flaws, the 2020
elections in Myanmar are still a milestone in the democratisation effort.”
