[In his final days in office, President Trump is trying to undermine Beijing by showing support for Taiwan. President-elect Biden will likely follow a similar path — without the pugnacity.]
His successor, President-elect Joseph
R. Biden Jr., will most likely continue on a similar path, albeit without Mr.
Trump’s characteristic pugnacity.
As concerns grow about
China’s increasingly
aggressive behavior on the global stage, Mr. Biden will face pressure
from Democrats and Republicans to strengthen ties with Taiwan, which Beijing
considers part of its territory.
While Mr. Biden said little about
Taiwan on the campaign trail, he has said the United States should get “tough
with China” and described its top leader, Xi Jinping, as a “thug.” His
transition team has already reached out to Taiwanese officials.
“If China continues to put military
and economic pressure on Taiwan, Biden will have to demonstrate he will not sit
by while China bullies Taiwan,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, senior adviser for Asia
at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
His approach, though, is expected
to be less confrontational than his predecessor’s. “I don’t think Biden is
looking to use Taiwan to poke Xi Jinping in the eye and make him look weak,”
Ms. Glaser added. “There won’t be a deliberate effort to make Taiwan a point of
friction.”
With less than two months left in
his term, Mr. Trump is working to leave a legacy
of severed ties between the United States and China, including a
series of last-minute actions focused on Taiwan.
The American government last week
held economic talks in Washington with officials from Taiwan, drawing a rebuke
from Beijing. Next month, the White House is planning to send the leader of the
Environmental Protection Agency to Taiwan’s capital, Taipei, the latest in a
series of high-profile visits by American officials that have rankled the
Chinese government.
Mr. Trump has attracted a loyal
following in Taiwan because of his administration’s criticism of the Chinese
Communist Party on issues such as trade, the coronavirus and the crackdown
on dissent in Hong Kong. He has garnered praise in Taiwan for moving
swiftly to approve weapons sales, including more than $4 billion worth last
month. He is also widely lauded for his decision, as president-elect in 2016,
to take
a telephone call from President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, breaking with
decades of diplomatic practice.
“Trump’s actions have been very
solid,” said Tsai Yi-yu, a lawmaker from southern Taiwan. Mr. Tsai has
fervently supported the president, going so far as to wear a “Keep America
Great” face mask to meetings with Taiwan’s leaders.
“Maintaining Trump’s Taiwan
policies will be best for Taiwan,” he said, citing Mr. Trump’s support for
weapons sales.
In Taiwan, Mr. Biden’s ascent has
been greeted with some anxiety, especially in the ruling party, the Democratic
Progressive Party, which is critical of China.
Many politicians and activists in
Taiwan have grown increasingly concerned in recent years by Mr. Xi’s creeping
authoritarianism. They have called on world leaders to more forcefully push
back against efforts by Beijing to bring the island under its control, and to
treat Taiwan as an equal.
Mr. Biden is seen in Taiwan as more
risk averse. He is best known for his time as vice president under President
Barack Obama, who has been criticized in Taiwan for not doing enough to stand
up to Mr. Xi. As a senator, Mr. Biden helped bring China into international
groups like the World Trade Organization, which gave the country an edge as it
sought to expand its economy and exert influence in the global system.
Mr. Biden has resisted the idea
that he would give in to pressure from Beijing. As evidence of Mr. Biden’s
commitment to Taiwan, his advisers have cited his support as a senator for the
Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which obligates Washington to provide weapons to
Taiwan. More recently, he has signaled his support for Taiwan in other ways,
having his choice for secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, for example, speak this
month with Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the United States.
“He will continue to support a
peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues consistent with the wishes and best
interests of the people of Taiwan,” an official with Mr. Biden’s transition
team said in a statement. “He has long said that American support for Taiwan
must remain strong, principled and bipartisan.”
Some politicians in Taiwan,
including members of the opposition party, the Kuomintang, believe Mr. Biden’s
more restrained approach could help ease tensions and prevent a military
conflict between the United States and China.
“He is neither a reckless
politician nor a person who wants to achieve something remarkable in a short
period of time,” said Cheng Li-wun, a Kuomintang lawmaker.
Despite Mr. Biden’s calls for
greater cooperation, China’s leaders are wary
about his leadership. They worry that he will try to unite American allies
in Europe and Asia to thwart Beijing’s global agenda, according to analysts in
the mainland, and that he will continue to seek closer ties with Taiwan.
“The basic Taiwan policies, even
during Biden’s term, won’t see any upending changes,” said Xin Qiang, a scholar
who studies U.S.-China relations and Taiwan at Fudan University in Shanghai.
“With regard to both strategy and tactics, the mainland has concerns about both
Biden and Trump.”
Chinese officials often accuse the
United States of encouraging Taiwan to seek full independence, a move that Mr.
Xi has repeatedly warned could be met by armed force. A rising
sense of nationalism in China has fueled concerns that the mainland
could react harshly if tensions escalated.
“I fear that one day the mainland
will be forced to take actions because of the Taiwan issue that would cause a
crisis or even a military conflict between China and the United States,”
Professor Xin said.
During his final weeks in office,
Mr. Trump and his advisers appear to be intent on testing China’s limits on
Taiwan.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has
escalated his taunting of Beijing, saying during a recent interview that Taiwan
was not a part of China. His remarks drew a furious response from Chinese
officials, who said Taiwan was an inalienable part of China, denounced Mr.
Pompeo and vowed to retaliate.
Mr. Trump’s national security
adviser, Robert C. O’Brien, is currently leading a visit to the region as part
of an effort to reassure American allies, after Beijing this month signed
a trade agreement with 14 countries in the region, a move seen as a
check to American power in the region. Mr. O’Brien said in Manila on Monday
that the United States would continue to support Taiwan and would not cede its
status as a Pacific power to China.
“We’re going to fight for a free
and open Indo-Pacific region with all of our partners,” Mr. O’Brien said in a
conference call with reporters.
When he takes office in January,
Mr. Biden will face growing frictions and also tough
policy choices, including questions about arms sales and economic
investment. Taiwan has long pressed American officials to sign a bilateral
trade treaty, an idea that Beijing opposes. President Tsai lifted a
longstanding ban on American pork and beef imports in August, a decision seen
as an attempt to open the door to formal trade talks.
As the pandemic rages, Taiwan is
also seeking to take part in international groups like the World Health
Assembly, the decision-making body of the World Health Organization, despite
objections from China.
Many Taiwan residents say the island
can maintain its legitimacy on the global stage and deter an invasion by the
mainland only with strong support from Mr. Biden.
“Taiwan can’t face the might of
China alone,” said You Ying-long, a former politician for the governing
Democratic Progressive Party. “We can’t fight China on our own.”
Albee Zhang contributed research.
