June 26, 2020

CHINA AND INDIA FLEX MILITARY MUSCLE NEAR DISPUTED BORDER

[Satellite images indicate that the People’s Liberation Army has built new bunkers near the site of a deadly clash. PLA forces hold live-fire drills in Tibet while India deploys battle tanks close to conflict zone]

By Kristin Huang

The Chinese military carries out a live-fire drill in Tibet as its tensions with India elevated following a deadly clash 
on the disputed Himalayan border. Photo: Weibo
China and India have both strengthened their military presence near their disputed border areas after a violent clash last week that left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead.

Citing satellite images from a space technology company Maxar, Reuters reported on Thursday that China appeared to have built new structures near the site of the Himalayan border clash.

The images, taken on Monday, showed bunkers, tents and storage units for military hardware set up in an area where there were none last month.

The People’s Liberation Army has also stepped up drills for its border troops and conducted at least three exercises in the past two weeks in Tibet, according to Chinese media reports.

The latest exercise was reported by the PLA’s own TV channel on Wednesday, with ground troops in Tibet organising an operation to test the logistics and engineering skills of a frontline brigade unit.

The channel also reported a live-fire drill on Monday, in which combat tanks, rocket launchers and repair vehicles were mobilised to test the unit’s capacity to mount a strike.

The Monday programme showed at least three Type 15 light tanks firing targets in an open field. At least five PLZ-07 tracked self-propelled howitzer armoured vehicles and three Type 81 self-propelled 122mm multiple rocket launchers were also involved in the drill.

Liu Jian, a company commander who took part in the exercise, was quoted as saying that the objective was to test the gunners’ ability to hit targets 1,800 metres away within eight seconds while the tanks were moving.

Another live-fire exercise involving the army, helicopters and drones was held south of the Nyenchen Tanglha Mountains in southern Tibet last week, according to another PLA TV report.

Unlike the Chinese military whose exercises were conducted away from the disputed areas, the Indian military have apparently staged exercises close to the conflict zone.

India deployed T-90 Bhishma battle tanks in Ladakh close to the Galwan Valley, the site of the deadly clashes, according to Zee News, a Hindi-language news channel in India. And the Indian Air Force was also reportedly keeping aerial surveillance in the disputed region.

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst specialising in Chinese security at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra, said that although the PLA’s activities were staged deep inside China’s border, Beijing’s broader power projection abilities allowed it to respond quickly from military bases in Tibet.

But Davis said that a major clash would be unlikely despite the build-up by both militaries.

“I think both sides are looking to avoid rapid escalation, so any military operations would be limited in scope and intensity,” he said.

“Both sides have nuclear weapons and thus that really limits how far they can push this crisis. If there is to be fighting, it would be short, intense battles, limited in geographic scope and the level of violence employed.”

Ben Ho, associate research fellow with the military studies programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said that if New Delhi were to exercise the military option, it would likely be a small-scale and calibrated one so as not to stoke tensions. Beijing also would likely respond proportionately, he said.

“The primary strategic concern of Beijing is competing with the US in the western Pacific in the long run, and they would do well to minimise anything that diverts attention and resources from that endeavour,” Ho said.

Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military expert, said China had far more deployable weapons and better logistics support than India but Beijing would not want the situation to get out of control.

“If confrontations were to intensify, it could quickly spiral out of control, and no party can benefit from such devastating chaos,” Zhou said.

China and India were embroiled in a clash in the Galwan Valley, in the disputed Himalayan territory of Ladakh, on June 15. A week earlier, high-level military commanders from both sides met for 11 hours and agreed to “peacefully resolve the situation in the border areas in accordance with various bilateral agreements”.