[A conventional military reaction is probably too costly as Pakistan seeks to shore up its finances. And one of the most effective strategies Pakistan has traditionally employed — using an array of militant groups as proxies to keep neighbors in check — has become a liability, amid the threat of international sanctions. (Pakistan has denied that it uses militant groups to achieve its foreign policy objectives.)]
By
Maria Abi-Habib
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Kashmiri
people from Pakistan shouting anti-Indian slogans during a demonstration
in Islamabad,
Pakistan on Wednesday. Credit Aamir Qureshi/Agence
France-Presse
— Getty Images
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NEW
DELHI — The dispute over
Kashmir has long been a flash point between India and Pakistan, with each
nuclear-armed country holding the threat of retaliation over the other. But when India stripped the Indian-controlled region of Kashmir of its autonomy this week, Pakistan’s reaction appeared to be limited to high-level
hand-wringing.
As Pakistan marks its independence day next week,
it increasingly feels like a nation with its back against the wall, with few
options to protect its existential interests. Its economy is teetering on the brink of collapse, and its international allies have either stayed silent over
Kashmir or defected in support of India.
A conventional military reaction is probably
too costly as Pakistan seeks to shore up its finances. And one of the most
effective strategies Pakistan has traditionally employed — using an array of
militant groups as proxies to keep neighbors in check — has become a liability,
amid the threat of international sanctions. (Pakistan has denied that it uses
militant groups to achieve its foreign policy objectives.)
“The economy is hindering Pakistan’s options.
As they head to a recession, can they really afford a war right now?” said Arif
Rafiq, the president of Vizier Consulting, a consulting firm on South Asian
political and security issues. “Their capacity to bear the cost of a
full-fledged conflict with India over Kashmir, whether via insurgent networks
or conventionally — there just are not a lot of options Pakistan has.”
Even Afghan Taliban leaders, who have long
been sheltered in Pakistan, seem to have turned their backs on their ally of
late.
Last year, in an effort to end its global
isolation, Pakistan agreed to help the United States end its war in Afghanistan
by delivering the Taliban leadership to the table for peace talks. In doing so,
Pakistan employed one of its greatest sources of leverage with the United
States. Those talks are now nearing a conclusion, with American negotiators
sitting across the table from their Taliban counterparts and aiming to reach a
settlement soon.
In recent days, several Pakistani government
officials have demanded that their country end its cooperation in the peace
talks to protest American silence over India’s elimination of Kashmir’s
autonomy. But the Taliban on Thursday issued a forceful statement warning
against any meddling.
“Linking the issue of Kashmir with that of
Afghanistan by some parties will not aid in improving the crisis at hand
because the issue of Afghanistan is not related, nor should Afghanistan be
turned into the theater of competition between other countries,” the Taliban
statement read.
The outcome of the peace talks and Pakistan’s
role in them will likely influence whether the country finds itself blacklisted
internationally over its continued support of terrorist organizations, a move
that could save or break its faltering economy. The Paris-based group that
monitors terrorism financing, the Financial Action Task Force, will vote in
October on whether Pakistan has done enough to crack down on militant networks
at home.
Pakistan hopes to make the case that it has
moved against militant groups and should be taken off the gray list on which
the watchdog placed it last year. Pakistan deeply fears it could be blacklisted
and denied access to international financial markets at a time when it
desperately needs loans to stay afloat. If Pakistan is blacklisted, that could
tip its economy into recession.
Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan seemed
worried about the lack of options to force India to renounce its new Kashmir
policy.
Meeting with Pakistani journalists on
Thursday, Mr. Khan dismissed using “jihadi organizations” against India in
Kashmir. “There are more disadvantages than advantages,” Mr. Khan said,
according to Amber Rahim Shamsi, a reporter for Samaa TV who attended the
meeting.
The possibility of international sanctions
also seemed to weigh on Mr. Khan.
“Pakistan has taken every step to get itself
out of the baggage of the past,’’ the prime minister told the group of
journalists, according to a second account of the meeting.
He said the government had undertaken “a
complete cleansing operation” against terrorist groups. “My government has
ensured there is a complete and sincere effort to bring Pakistan out of FATF,”
Mr. Khan added, referring to the Financial Action Task Force.
Pakistan’s foreign minister has said he would
raise the issue of Kashmir to the United Nations Security Council for a vote.
But so far, the country’s closest allies have remained silent on the matter.
Muslim nations have usually supported
Pakistan’s claims on Kashmir. But with their own economic and political
troubles at home, many have tilted toward India, looking to secure lucrative
deals with the ascending economic power.
The biggest blow came from the influential
United Arab Emirates, which stated that Kashmir was an internal matter for
India, withdrawing any support to raise the issue internationally.
India has long maintained that Kashmir is an
internal issue; the disputed territory chose to join India rather than Pakistan
during partition in 1947, based on assurances that its autonomy would be
maintained. Pakistani forces invaded part of Kashmir and now control that part
of the territory.
When Pakistan agreed after the September 11,
2001 attacks to help the United States fight terrorist groups, it asked for a
favor in return — American help mediating on Kashmir and pressing India to make
concessions. When the United States refused, Pakistan felt betrayed.
Just last month Pakistanis felt more upbeat
about their country’s prospects. Mr. Khan had returned from a visit to the
White House where he met with Mr. Trump, who promised to intervene on Kashmir.
But India’s swift action days later to strip Kashmir of its autonomy plunged
Pakistan back into isolation.
“The U.S. has again let us down, and those
who were starry-eyed about the American trip have got a wake-up call,” Senator
Mushahid Hussain said in a speech this week.
Salman Masood contributed reporting from
Islamabad, Pakistan.
