[The episode was the latest bit of confusion in a prolonged peace process. The insurgents and the Americans are nearing a deal after seven rounds of protracted negotiations in the Qatari capital of Doha — talks that have excluded the Afghan government. As part of that agreement, expected to be completed soon, the United States and the Taliban would settle on a timeline for the withdrawal of American troops — one believed to be under two years with conditions attached.]
By Mujib Mashal
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Afghanistan's
President Ashraf Ghani in London last month.
Credit
Pool photo by Matt Dunham
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KABUL, Afghanistan —
The Afghan government on Saturday announced that it was preparing for direct
negotiations with the Taliban in the next two weeks, a major step in efforts to
end a war so long that it has left record casualties in its wake.
But the Taliban quickly rejected it.
The militant group’s spokesman said the Taliban was
steadfast in its refusal to directly negotiate with the Afghan side until the
United States announces a schedule for withdrawing the remainder of its 14,000
troops in the country. Analysts questioned the point of the government’s
announcement when the Taliban’s position on the withdrawal of U.S. troops was
clear all along.
The episode was the latest bit of confusion in a prolonged
peace process. The insurgents and the Americans are nearing a deal after seven
rounds of protracted negotiations in the Qatari capital of Doha — talks that
have excluded the Afghan government. As part of that agreement, expected to be
completed soon, the United States and the Taliban would settle on a timeline
for the withdrawal of American troops — one believed to be under two years with
conditions attached.
But American diplomats, recently aided by Germany and
Norway, have struggled to advance the process to its next step, in which the
Taliban would negotiate with the Afghan government over the political future of
the country after the American-led NATO mission ends its military presence.
Afghan and Taliban leaders have yet to meet, except for a recent summit where a
small number of officials attended in a personal capacity.
President Ashraf Ghani has been skeptical of the
American-Taliban talks that have excluded his government, expressing concern
that the United States was leaving the hard gains of the Afghan state
vulnerable to a hasty deal that benefits only the Taliban. His officials have
vented their anger openly.
But critics say Mr. Ghani’s foot-dragging is also personal.
In their view, he is prioritizing October presidential elections, in which he
is running for a second five-year term, over a deal that would most likely end
his presidency. Campaigning for those elections begins on Sunday, with 17
candidates challenging Mr. Ghani.
The Afghan government’s announcement of direct talks with
the Taliban, in the form of a statement from the country’s recently appointed
minister for peace, came after senior American officials held extensive talks
with Mr. Ghani over the past week to ease his concerns over the initial
Taliban-American agreement.
In return, the insurgents would provide assurances that
Afghanistan would not be used by international terror groups such as Al Qaeda
to launch attacks on the Americans and their allies, and that it would sit down
with the Afghans to negotiate the country’s political future.
Saturday’s announcement by the Afghan government said it was
settling on a 15-member negotiating team that would represent different
cross-sections of society and that talks would be in a European capital,
believed to be Oslo.
“Following efforts of the government for direct negotiations
between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban, these negotiations
will begin in the next two weeks,” read the statement by the office of Salam
Rahimi, the peace minister.
Less than an hour after Mr. Rahimi’s announcement, the
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid rejected it by repeating the group’s
long-held position — that it would turn to “intra-Afghan” issues only after its
deal with the Americans was completed.
The only likelihood of reaching common ground is if the U.S.
and Taliban complete their deal and announce the withdrawal schedule between
now and the end of the two-week mark the Afghan government has laid for direct
talks to begin. Even then, the Taliban would need to bend on their position
that they would not negotiate directly with the government, but rather with a
wide range of Afghans that could include government officials.
“And we will not sit and talk with the Kabul administration
as a government,” Mr. Mujahid added.
Barnett Rubin, a former state department official who was
part of the Obama administration’s negotiation efforts, said it was
understandable that the Afghan government, “on the eve of an election
campaign,” was reassuring its public of its full engagement in the peace
process.
“The risk is that, since the Taliban have not yet formally
agreed to talk to the government, and since they will not do so until they agree
with the U.S. on troop withdrawal, they may feel compelled to deny that they
have agreed to negotiate with the government,” Mr. Rubin said. “That would be a
setback for the process.”
Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special envoy for Afghan peace,
took to twitter “to clarify” the confusion around direct negotiations.
“Those negotiations will occur after we conclude our own
agreements and will take place between the Taliban and an inclusive and
effective national negotiating team consisting of senior government officials,
key political party representatives, civil society and women,” Mr. Khalilzad
said.
Khalilzad has been in Kabul for the past week and has met
with Mr. Ghani four times for detailed discussions, the presidential spokesman,
Sediq Sediqi, said. Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, also arrived in Kabul, and the American secretary of state,
Mike Pompeo, held a long phone call with Mr. Ghani.
“The U.S. secretary of state said the nature of the presence
of U.S. troops would be conditions-based — that the conditions in Afghanistan
would decide the drawdown,” Mr. Sediqi said at a news conference on Saturday.
