[The race is a referendum on Narendra Modi, the powerful prime minister who is up for re-election. One of the most polarizing figures India has produced in decades, Mr. Modi has championed an assertive brand of Hindu nationalist politics that strives to elevate India’s Hindu identity but has sharply divided this country.]
By Jeffrey Gettleman
 |
|
Election
officials carried equipment and materials near the Brahmaputra River
in Majuli, Assam,
India. Credit Anupam Nath/Associated Press
|
NEW
DELHI — It is the biggest
election in history.
Across India, from the Himalayan mountains to
the Andaman Islands in the Bay of Bengal, the first wave of millions of
citizens will start a five-week-long vote on Thursday to choose a new
Parliament, which will select a prime minister.
India is the world’s largest democracy, the
most populous nation after China, and a pivotal geopolitical power. And it has
never before held an election of this magnitude: 900 million eligible voters;
at least 11 million poll workers; 2.3 million electronic voting machines; 2,000
political parties; and special trains, boats, helicopters and even elephants to
transport voting equipment.
The race is a referendum on Narendra Modi,
the powerful prime minister who is up for re-election. One of the most
polarizing figures India has produced in decades, Mr. Modi has championed an
assertive brand of Hindu nationalist politics that strives to elevate India’s
Hindu identity but has sharply divided this country.
Many Indians appreciate his intensity, which
he constantly demonstrates in huge rallies where hundreds of thousands of
people gather under the hot sun to hear him thunder about being India’s
watchman — his new campaign slogan — and how he is the best candidate to
preside over this dizzyingly diverse nation of 1.3 billion.
Many Indians believe that the Modi
administration has been more effective, less corrupt and better at positioning
India on the world stage than past governments.
But his right-leaning political party, the
Bharatiya Janata Party, also has alienated minorities and created fear.
Intellectuals blame the Hindu nationalist atmosphere stoked by Mr. Modi and his
party for a rash of lynchings and other violence against Muslims and lower
caste Indians.
The latest surveys predict that Mr. Modi, 68,
will return to power. But voter discontent over India’s economic challenges,
especially rising joblessness, is likely to reduce the number of parliamentary
seats his party controls. That could hamper his ability to push the Hindu
nationalist agenda further.
In the last election, in 2014, Mr. Modi’s
party stunned the country by winning an outright majority in the lower house of
Parliament, which has 543 elected seats. By picking up even more seats through
alliances with smaller parties, he then built a political juggernaut that went
on to dominate Indian politics.
But this time around, few expect such a tidal
wave. Though Mr. Modi remains popular among many in the middle class and across
northern India’s Hindu heartland, more poor Indians are turning against him.
Farmers in many states have organized
protests, furious that Mr. Modi has not delivered on promises to strengthen
crop prices. In urban areas, anti-Modi feelings are building as well. Rising
inflation and unemployment have become liabilities for him.
India’s economy is still growing at a fast
rate, around 7 percent a year. Technology companies are popping up across the
landscape; passenger jets are almost always packed; and more Indian students
are attending the world’s best universities. India now is the sixth-largest
economy, powered by its sheer scale.
But many gains have been captured by a tiny
elite. Poverty lurks in every corner of this country, from the busiest
intersections of New Delhi, the capital, to the sharecropper cotton farms
across India’s bushy center.
This leaves the leading opposition party, the
center-left Indian National Congress, an opportunity to capture more seats than
in the last election, which it lost badly. But most polling data suggests the
Congress party will be a distant second to Mr. Modi’s, with slim prospects of
forming the next government.
The biggest criticism of the Congress party,
which won India freedom from Britain and ruled for most of India’s independent
history, is that it has failed to articulate a clear vision. The party
historically has championed minority rights. Its socialist policies have helped
improve education and empower lower castes.
But as Mr. Modi’s party has pulled India
rightward, the Congress party has struggled to respond.
Rasheed Kidwai, author of several books on
the Congress party, said it lacked “that kind of hunger for power that the
B.J.P. has.”
The party also cannot shake its reputation as
a family dynasty, embodied by its leader, Rahul Gandhi.
Mr. Gandhi’s father was prime minister. So
were his grandmother and great-grandfather.
But Mr. Gandhi, 48, has never displayed his
ancestors’ zest for politics. He is known as affable, mild-mannered, even a
little shy, and if this race were purely a choice between him and Mr. Modi,
opinion polls show he would be trounced.
But Indian politics are not personality
pageants. The race for prime minister is actually 543 different parliamentary
races, often driven by complex local issues and contested by a galaxy of
parties that fight along geographic, religious and caste lines. Bribes are
rampant; the election commission has already seized billions of rupees and
millions of liters of liquor.
The election results will not be clear for a
while, since the voting is conducted through mid-May. Different places vote on
different dates, and the electronic machines — and the poll workers — will move
from site to site.
Only after the last votes have been cast will
the election commission reveal the results, expected on May 23.
Hari Kumar and Suhasini Raj contributed from
New Delhi.
