[Though this was only the first of the CSACF
meetings, for five years now, Beijing has been hosting an annual China-South
Asia Expo.]
By
N Sathiya Moorthy
In an event not much publicised in India,
China, on 15 June, launched the ‘First China-South Asia Cooperation Forum’
(CSACF) in Yunnan Province. It was also attended by the Indian Consul-General
in Guangzhou, Sailas Thangal. The parallel, yet unasked question, either at or
outside the CSACF venue, was if the new Chinese initiative, alongside the
more-visible Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could ring the death-knell for the
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), where it had failed
to go beyond the ‘Observer’ status, to obtain full membership.
"The cooperation between China and South
Asia is in accord with the development needs of the two sides and will greatly
promote regional cooperation in Asia,” Li Jiming, Director-General, Foreign
Affairs Office of Yunnan Province, said. He declared that the CSACF was a part
of the BRI, “which is expected to bring together South Asian countries that
share a geographical vicinity and cultural affinity with China” according to a
dispatch from the venue in ‘The Island’ group of newspapers in Sri Lanka, from
S H Venkataramani, the New Delhi-based Special Correspondent.
Responding to a specific question from The
Island correspondent, Li denied that Chinese investments in foreign countries
tantamount to a debt-trap. "We have been providing loans for business
purposes only after serious consideration that involves a thorough study of
feasibility report and financial calculation,” he said, when asked if Chinese
investments, as in Pakistan ($ 100 b), Sri Lanka ($ 14 b) and other nations in
South Asia would not lead to a debt-trap.
Indian praise
According to the newspaper, “Over 400
ministers, senior officials, delegates and media representatives from all SAARC
member-states except Bhutan attended the meeting at the luxurious Fuxian Lake
Hilton... Speakers from seven of the eight SAARC countries — Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Maldives, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka — plus Myanmar and
Vietnam from South-East Asia spoke eloquently, lauding Beijing’s initiative to
launch the CSACF to bring South Asia and China together on one platform.”
Though this was only the first of the CSACF
meetings, for five years now, Beijing has been hosting an annual China-South
Asia Expo. This year’s Expo coincided with the CSACF meeting, along with the
25th China Kunming Import & Export Fair at the Dianchi International
Convention and Exhibition Centre in Kunming. Other parallel events included the
opening ceremony of China-South Asia Poverty Reduction Exhibition, China-South
Asia High-Level Round-table Meeting for Business Cooperation, China-South Asia
Local Government Leaders' Dialogue, and a seminar on Financial Cooperation
Development Strategy.
As The Island reported, Indian CG, Sailas
Thangal, said while the CSACF boasts of the world’s biggest market, the region
is home to millions of poor people. "So, the Governments of China and
South Asia should facilitate the criss-crossing of ideas for development, and a
trustworthy connection of hearts and minds”.
India’s presence and participation at the
CSACF, though at the Consul-General level, is at variance from its boycott of
the BRI, thus indicating a clear delineation between trade and sovereignty
issues. As may be recalled, the Indian boycott of the BRI was mainly because
its Pakistan arm was passing through ‘occupied Kashmir’ in China’s possession.
Apart from the Indian CG, speakers from
nations such as Pakistan and Bangladesh also hailed the CSACF. As The Island
reported, a document, the ‘Fuxian Lake Initiative’, recognised that China and
South Asian countries "should further deepen interactions to consolidate
cooperation, expand its basis, materialise cooperation projects and improve
cooperation quality, making contributions to the realisation of sustainable,
inclusive and prosperous development”.
Existential dilemma
China’s CSACF initiative comes at a time when
the SAARC has been going through the throes of an existential dilemma,
particularly in the context of continual India-Pakistan adversities and the
larger institutional failure to make it comparable to the EU, ASEAN and other
regional formations across the world. Almost since the launch of the SAARC, or
even through the long run-up earlier, India was said to be uncomfortable with
the idea of smaller neighbours using the proposed forum to ‘gang up’ against
India, at times under the aegis of Pakistan.
Formally founded in the Bangladesh capital of
Dhaka in 1985 after much delay and deliberations, the SAARC has often been
stymied by India-Pakistan differences. Though bilateral issues are supposed to
be kept off the forum, Pakistan has obliquely targeted India at the bi-annual
summit, from time-to-time. However, if anything could be called the last-nail,
India drove it by declaring a boycott of scheduled summit in the Pakistani
capital of Islamabad in November 2016.
Politics and diplomatic differences between
member-nations notwithstanding, SAARC initiatives in specific sectors have
still made halting yet substantial progress, but not commensurate with the
time-lag and consequent shifts and changes in specifications and contemporary
requirements. Overall, outside of strained political relations, among
member-nations, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, among others, the SAARC has
not been able to achieve much in terms of overall trade, investments and mutual
developmental assistance.
According to available figures, intra-SAARC
trade is still at a low five percent of their cumulative global trade, and
still at around $50-billion mark. Against this, as pointed out by Yunnan
Province Governor Ruan Chengfa at the CSACF launch, China-South Asia trade shot
up by 31 percent in three years –- from $ 93.3 b in 2015 to $126.26 b this
year.
Quiet diplomacy
Through quiet and efficient diplomacy, India
ensured that most other members preceded or succeeded India in declaring their
own boycott of the SAARC Islamabad Summit until Pakistan mended its ways on the
‘terrorism’ front. India was among those nations, yes, but was not alone.
Barring the early weeks of Pakistan’s reluctant but inevitable announcement on
what it called the ‘postponement’ of the summit, no member-nation has taken any
initiative about reviving the leadership meeting, either in Pakistan or any of
the other member-nations.
It is in this context that India at least
needs to take a closer look at the new Chinese initiative, which comes
alongside the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) grouping and
the BRI. Among them, the BRICS involves multiple nations, including China and
India, with their own political agendas and economic and developmental
priorities. Such a multi-nation, multi-faceted approach may even affect the
functioning of the BRICS even more over time, despite the signatories sending
out early signals of an alternative fiscal forum for the world, beyond the
West-controlled International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
The same, however, cannot be said about
China’s CSACF. With President Xi Jinping’s BRI very much in place, China can
develop, use and exploit the new forum to its trade and economic benefit –-
that too after packaging it as ‘shared benefits’ with the other nation. It can
co-opt India but on its terms, or deal with individual nations or collectives
thereof, again on its terms –- or deal with each one of these nations
collectively, using the BRI arms both for purpose of investments,
transportation and transit-points, where applicable and/or possible.
In political terms, there is a possibility
that through the CSACF, China can make other participant-nations to feel that
India is only one of them, and not bigger and more powerful than any or all of
them. Given that many of these nations want an ‘eternal friend’ in the UN
Security Council, where India is a non-veto, non-permanent member, China has
always had an upper hand, even otherwise. These are precisely the kinds of
situations that successive Indian governments consciously and Indian
consciousness otherwise have been trying to side step, before and after the
Cold War.
Peace through Pak?
In this context, DG Li Jiming’s observations
that Pakistan and the CSACF “will work together to promote regional peace and
prosperity as well as implementing President Xi’s concept of ‘shared destiny’
assumes greater relevance. "I have made personal conversations with
Pakistan's top-level diplomat in China and without any doubt, this forum will
bring positive influence to the relationship between china and Pakistan as
well,” he said.
This does not mean that India is blind or
silent about the CSACF initiative, which like China’s investments drive in the
neighbourhood, could bind them eternally to Beijing, as much geo-politically
and geo-strategically as it is economically. Given that most of India’s
neighbours, barring Bhutan, have joined the BRI, and nations like Maldives have
become increasingly hostile, India cannot be but alive to the emerging
situation -- signing of huge investment deals not only with China but also with
Pakistan, alongside Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, there is also a need for
India to review its approach to reviving the SAARC, and if it would help the
larger South Asian cause, alongside and going beyond the CSACF. Considering
China’s fast-track approach to initiatives of the kind, and considering that
the CSACF includes not only all SAARC member-nations but also other nations in
South-East Asia too, New Delhi may have a greater problem on hand if it seeks
to revive the SAARC on a later day.
With Myanmar and Vietnam having already
signed in on to the CSACF, China can still claim that it was not a challenge to
or replacement for the SAARC. Instead, like the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO), wherein India and Pakistan are also now members, China can
say, the CSACF too is one more regional organization, with specific
sub-regional agenda.
