[Incidentally, not a few noted their revealing locations: in the trans-Himalaya, in the mid-Hill region and in the Madesh also. Others speculated whether the choice of that revealing trifecta was not specifically designed to proclaim the India/Hindu nexus in Nepal from the north to the south, thus transmitting a loud and clear message to China, post-Wuhan, that Nepal is undoubtedly within the Indian sphere of influence – So: Hands Off!]
By M.R. Josse
 |
| Indian PM Narendra Modi in Muktinath, Mustang, Nepal |
This new column grants prime
cognizance to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s just concluded, bizarre
two-day visit as it happened, coincidentally enough, soon after yours truly
returned home following a year’s absence in the United States.
Since much purple prose will inevitably flow
on the supposed stellar achievements of Modi’s latest diplomatic foray to Nepal
not long after Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli’s own to India, let me focus here on such of its dimensions
that, while extremely salient, may either not be so considered, or otherwise
simply overlooked.
Heavy Security
To begin, the security dimension of Modi’s
latest Nepal experiment was not just striking; it underlined the vast, telltale
chasm between the myth of Modi’s popularity and the prosaic reality on the
ground. For one thing, a virtual army of Indian security personnel, scores of
them in mufti, had descended upon Janakpur days before the Indian prime
minister arrived to ensure his safety. Even during his pilgrimage to the
isolated reaches of Muktinath in the high Himalaya he was virtually locked-in
by a posse of security guards.
One inevitably wondered: If he is as popular
as his spinmeisters make out why was such an overwhelming concern for his
security necessary? Incidentally, were such considerations paramount in hosting
Kathmandu ‘civic reception’ in a closed auditorium packed with carefully
selected invitees – rather than organising it in the Tundikhel and open to the
ordinary Nepali citizen?
And while the optics of masses of uniformed
Nepali security personnel overflowing the nooks and crannies of Kathmandu was
oddly at variance with the syrupy official propaganda, on both sides of the
border, it seemed plainly counter-productive as well.
Such a conclusion was inescapable judging
from the sullen and angry comments by a public that had neither forgotten
India’s five-month blockade under Modi’s captaincy nor took kindly to the
abrupt disruption of their daily lives and routine caused by the heavy-handed
traffic-and-security ‘bandobast’
enforced for his latest diplomatic caper.
No less conspicuous – and troubling – was
that both India and Nepal, that now sing paeans to the glories of secularism,
depleted untold amounts of state treasure and precious manpower in promoting
what was essentially a Hindu extravaganza focused on promoting the Janaki Mandir,
Pashupatinath and Muktinath.
(What is all the more Alice-in-Wonderlandish
about it is that, on the Nepali side, it was promoted with such obvious gusto
by our Communists caudillos fed on the notion that religion is the opiate of
the masses!)
Incidentally, not a few noted their revealing
locations: in the trans-Himalaya, in the mid-Hill region and in the Madesh also.
Others speculated whether the choice of that revealing trifecta was not
specifically designed to proclaim the India/Hindu nexus in Nepal from the north
to the south, thus transmitting a loud and clear message to China, post-Wuhan,
that Nepal is undoubtedly within the Indian sphere of influence – So: Hands
Off!
Against this backcloth, is it not only
natural to speculate whether Oli will visit China anytime soon, or even if
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s long-anticipated Nepal sojourn will ever come to
pass?
Though Modi’s calculation in hyping the Hindu
linkage and the ‘Ramayana Circuit’ between India and Nepal was seemingly
directed to the general election scheduled in India next year, it could very
well boomerang against him and his party, the BJP. State monies in secular
India are not expected, after all, to be squandered in propagating the Hindu
religion.
Besides, one doesn’t have to be an expert on
Indian politics to note not only that Modi’s lustre is fast fading, including
in the foreign policy sphere, but also that, following a period of relative
silence on the matter, there is now a growing body of media outpourings,
including by those knowledgeable about Indian foreign/security policy, claiming
that Modi did not come out smelling roses at Wuhan.
Moreover, the absurd, offensive comment by
Kirti Azad, a BJP lawmaker, on Janakpur – while Modi was in Nepal – only adds
credence to the possibility that the political spin-off in India from Modi’s
‘Hindu diplomacy’ might not be what he and his advisers fondly contemplated.
Azad’s action clearly suggests that Modi’s hold on his party’s MPs is not what
it was.
Other ‘Dots’
There are, however, other ‘dots’ that need to
be connected to complete the Big Picture of Modi’s latest excursion to this
land. Among them is that the rumbling against the Oli-Modi deal on Arun-3 has
not merely become audible from our bevy of water resources experts but appeals are,
in fact, now being openly made for the deal – that is overwhelmingly tailored
to India’s needs/wishes – to be overturned, including, in the first instance,
by the people of the Arun-3 region.
No less unsettling is that despite the fact
that a newly elected parliament is in place, no debate or discussions on the
deal were held by parliament on it. According to legal eagles, this is in
violation of the constitutional requirement that arrangements/agreements
between Nepal and foreign entities concerning the country’s natural resources
and which are of long-term consequences have to be endorsed by a two-thirds
majority in parliament.
As it stands, there is thus an eerie
similarity between the manner in which this deal was hurriedly and
non-transparently formalized and that which Girija Prasad Koirala attempted on
the Tanakpur deal vis-à-vis the Mahakali.
Or, could it be that Oli feels he is
all-powerful and can do precisely as he pleases – even to the extent of going
directly against the current of the popular nationalistic mandate that placed
him in power?
Are we, perhaps, seeing another reenactment
of the verity of Lord Acton’s dictum: all power corrupts; absolute power
corrupts absolutely?
One can only hope that the seething
discontent that lies below the surface and the rumblings that are beginning to
be heard on themes connected to the Modi visit will not get completely out of
hand. I keep my fingers crossed.
* Related link :
A ‘Pilgrimage’ To Nepal By Rakesh Sood in The Hindu >>
A ‘Pilgrimage’ To Nepal By Rakesh Sood in The Hindu >>
