[Ian Easton, a fellow at the Project 2049 Institute and author of “The Chinese Invasion Threat,” said Taiwan remains in a strong position to repel a potential invasion, partly because of its forbidding island geography. But that conclusion may not stand indefinitely, especially as China’s defense spending rises by 8 percent a year while Taiwan’s essentially stagnates, he said.]
By Simon Denyer
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Taiwan
President Tsai Ing-wen watches a live fire drill, in
this photo from
May 2017, which was part of an exercise
provoked by the growing
threat of mainland China.
(SAM YEH/AFP/Getty Images)
|
TAIPEI,
Taiwan — As President Trump
battles it out with China over trade and the mood in Washington sours toward
Beijing, there is a growing fear that Taiwan will end up suffering the
consequences.
“When two elephants are dancing, we must take
care not to be stamped upon,” said Jason Lin Chun-hsien, a legislator for the
ruling Democratic Progressive Party. “Today you yell at each other, but
tomorrow maybe you shake hands. We must try to avoid becoming a bargaining
chip.”
A Sino-U.S. trade war could seriously damage
Taiwan’s export-oriented economy. More than half of its exports go to China,
mostly parts and intermediate goods that are then assembled and exported to
consumers in countries such as the United States.
But the tectonic plates of international
diplomacy are also moving in a way that could send shock waves through Taiwan.
Ever since Tsai Ing-wen was elected president
of Taiwan in 2016, Beijing has signaled its displeasure with her stand-alone
attitude. China has been stepping up its campaign to isolate Taiwan
internationally, while its military flexes its muscles. Outright conflict, for
now, remains unlikely, but the narrow Taiwan Strait is reemerging as one of
Asia’s most dangerous potential flash points, experts say.
Last month, Trump signed the Taiwan Travel
Act into law, after unanimous votes in both houses of Congress. Recognizing
Taiwan as a “beacon of democracy in Asia,” the act declares that it should be
U.S. policy to send officials at all levels to Taiwan and allow high-level
Taiwanese officials to visit their counterparts in Washington.
While some experts have played down the act
as “not legally binding,” Julian Ku, a professor at Hofstra University’s law
school, said that underestimates its significance. He called it a “statutory
declaration of policy” that the administration has an obligation to observe,
even if there are no penalties for failing to do so.
Similar policy declarations, such as a 1998
vow to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq and the 1992 Cuban Democracy
Act, had significant impacts on foreign policy.
“Because such declarations reflect the
agreement of both houses of Congress and the president, it is hardly surprising
that, as the Iraq and Cuba examples should remind us, such statutory
declarations of policy often prevail as actual U.S. foreign policy,” he wrote.
“We can and should expect the Taiwan Travel Act to shape U.S. Taiwan policy in
the near and long term.”
After Trump signed the act, China’s
government lodged “stern” objections, warning Washington of potentially serious
damage to the foundations of their relationship.
The nationalist Global Times newspaper
recommended striking back by blacklisting from visits to the mainland any U.S.
officials who travel to Taipei, and even preparing for a possible “direct
military clash” in the Taiwan Strait.
The appointment of John Bolton as national
security adviser has also raised the stakes. Writing in the Wall Street Journal
in January, Bolton said Washington should “play the Taiwan card” against China,
even to the point of redeploying some U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Taiwan, or
granting Taiwan full diplomatic recognition if Beijing refuses to back down in
the South China Sea.
Either of those moves would be seen in
Beijing as firmly crossing a line.
“Taiwan needs the United States’ strong
support, but it should be wary that this not tip toward belligerence,” said
Margaret Lewis, a professor at Seton Hall Law School currently working in
Taiwan.
“Especially with so many global flash points
that could quickly divert the U.S. government’s attention, a concern is that
the U.S. might take an outspoken stance on Taiwan and then suddenly soften its
tone, which could leave Taiwan in an even more vulnerable position,” she said.
Trump, too, is a wild card. He spoke to Tsai
on the phone last year and approved a $1.4 billion arms sales package, but has
also talked of Taiwan as a potential bargaining chip in the broader contest
with Beijing. He has veered between buddying up to China’s President Xi Jinping
and attacking Beijing over trade.
The backdrop is a rise in tensions between
Taipei and Beijing since the 2016 election of Tsai. Her party sees Taiwan as a
de facto sovereign nation, and although she has ruled out any declaration of
independence from China, she has declined to endorse the idea that there is
“one China.”
China has responded by restricting the flow
of mainland tourists to the island. It has poached two of Taiwan’s few
diplomatic allies, put pressure on global corporations to list Taiwan as a
province of China on their websites, and managed to exclude it from
international bodies coordinating global health policy and civil aviation.
It has also stepped up sorties by fighter
jets and bombers around the island, and sent its sole aircraft carrier through
the Taiwan Strait, most recently last month. Xi, meanwhile, has dialed up the
nationalist rhetoric, warning in a speech to the National People’s Congress
last month that any attempt to split China would be met by “the punishment of
history.”
Xi also pledged to push for the complete
“peaceful reunification of the motherland,” a key part of the Communist Party’s
goal of achieving the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by the
centenary of its ascent to power, in 2049.
But could China try to force the issue before
then?
Five years ago, Xi declared that the problem
of the China-Taiwan divide “cannot be passed from generation to generation.”
With the removal of term limits on his presidency, experts believe he now sees
“reunification” as part of his legacy, preferably peacefully.
“As the modern emperor of the Middle Kingdom,
this is very much on his agenda to resolve the Taiwan issue in his lifetime,”
said Jason Hsu, a legislator with the opposition Kuomintang.
Ian Easton, a fellow at the Project 2049
Institute and author of “The Chinese Invasion Threat,” said Taiwan remains in a
strong position to repel a potential invasion, partly because of its forbidding
island geography. But that conclusion may not stand indefinitely, especially as
China’s defense spending rises by 8 percent a year while Taiwan’s essentially
stagnates, he said.
“What is the aim of China’s military
modernization? Their number one war scenario, their main strategic direction
since 1993, is the invasion and occupation of Taiwan,” he said. “The Taiwanese
don’t have a sense of crisis; they take peace for granted.”
In June, the American Institute in Taiwan,
the de facto embassy there, will move its Taipei office to a new location, with
long-standing plans to invite a Cabinet-level official to inaugurate it.
That wouldn’t be unprecedented: Environmental
Protection Agency chief Gina McCarthy visited in 2014. But this time, any such
visitor could be viewed — through the prism of the Taiwan Travel Act and amid
worsening Sino-U.S. relations — as a potential provocation.
Taiwan’s government wants strong and steady
support from Washington, including more visitors, more regular arms sales,
firmer backing to prevent its exclusion from international bodies, and
ultimately a free-trade agreement with the United States. But no one here wants
sudden moves from Washington that could provoke Beijing to lash out.
Neither Trump nor Xi wants conflict over
Taiwan — both have more pressing problems to deal with, not least North Korea’s
nuclear weapons. But if each leader surrounds himself with yes-men, the risks
of miscalculation rise.
“As Xi becomes more of a dictator, no one
will challenge him, and it will be very hard for him to get objective opinions
on anything,” Easton said. “If one day he asks his generals: ‘Are you ready for
the invasion of Taiwan?’ they’re going to say yes. Who would dare to say no?”
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