[During Mr. Trump’s first year in office, Mr. Kim raced ahead with breakthrough tests of missiles capable of hitting the United States mainland and what he claimed was a missile-ready hydrogen bomb. Then he abruptly changed course and used the Winter Olympics to seize the initiative, surprising the world with a rapprochement with the South and then an offer to meet with Mr. Trump.]
By Jane Perlez
 |
|
In
images and in words, President Xi Jinping of China and Kim Jong-un,
the
North Korean leader, signaled on Wednesday that they had repaired
the
relationship between their countries. Credit North
Korean
Central News Agency
|
BEIJING
— With a dose of mystery and
the flair of a showman, North Korea’s young leader, Kim Jong-un, used his debut
as an international statesman on Wednesday to present himself as confident,
reasonable — and willing to bargain.
Mr. Kim’s surprise two-day visit to Beijing,
his first known trip abroad since taking power, was effectively a reminder of
how much he has set the agenda in the crisis over his nation’s nuclear arsenal
— and of what a strong hand he has going into talks, first with President Moon
Jae-in of South Korea next month and later with President Trump.
Mr. Kim has yet to say what concessions he is
willing to make, or what he may demand from the United States in return. But he
continued to dominate the diplomatic process, reaffirming his willingness to
meet with Mr. Trump and repeating his vague commitment to the denuclearization
of the Korean Peninsula in talks with President Xi Jinping of China, according
to Xinhua, the Chinese state news agency.
During Mr. Trump’s first year in office, Mr.
Kim raced ahead with breakthrough tests of missiles capable of hitting the
United States mainland and what he claimed was a missile-ready hydrogen bomb.
Then he abruptly changed course and used the Winter Olympics to seize the
initiative, surprising the world with a rapprochement with the South and then
an offer to meet with Mr. Trump.
Through it all, the Trump administration has
been largely relegated to reacting and catching up to Mr. Kim. And so it was
again this week, when Mr. Kim suddenly showed up in China on an armored train
and was shown beaming next to Mr. Xi, whose cooperation has been critical to
Mr. Trump’s strategy of “maximum pressure” on the North. The state media in
China and North Korea announced the meeting on Wednesday, after two days of
secrecy.
In images and in words, Mr. Kim and Mr. Xi
signaled that they had repaired the relationship between their countries, which
had soured as Mr. Kim had accelerated his nuclear program and Mr. Xi had
responded by endorsing — and enforcing — more punishing sanctions proposed by
the United States.
“The friendship between North Korea and China
that was personally created and nurtured together by former generations of
leaders from both our sides is unshakable,” Mr. Kim told Mr. Xi, according to
Xinhua. Mr. Xi went out of his way to recall the warm friendship between his
father, a high-ranking Communist Party official from the Mao era, and Mr. Kim’s
father, Kim Jong-il, the North’s previous leader.
It is too soon to say whether the meeting
marks a softening of China’s posture toward Mr. Kim or of its commitment to
international sanctions against North Korea. But the visit served to highlight
Beijing’s unique leverage over North Korea, even as Mr. Trump is threatening
China with a trade war.
Mr. Trump can talk about maintaining “maximum
pressure” on the North, but ultimately China — the North’s main trade partner —
still decides what that means, because it can choose how strictly to enforce
sanctions.
“China is saying to the United States and the
rest of the world: Anyone who wants a deal on anything on the future of the
Korean Peninsula, and certainly something which deals with nukes, don’t think
you can walk around us, guys,” Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister
who is on good terms with the Chinese leadership, said in Hong Kong on
Wednesday.
Bruce Klingner, a former Korea analyst at the
C.I.A. who is now at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said China had been
bypassed by the diplomatic outreach that resulted in Mr. Trump’s agreement to
meet with Mr. Kim. “Beijing has been on the sidelines of North Korea’s recent
charm offensive and likely saw it necessary to finally invite Kim for a summit
to get a readout of the upcoming diplomatic meetings and to be seen as a major
player,” he said.
The Chinese government said it had briefed
the White House on Mr. Kim’s visit, adding that Mr. Xi had sent a personal
message to Mr. Trump.
On Wednesday morning, Mr. Trump expressed
optimism on Twitter about the potential for diplomatic success, saying there
was “a good chance” that Mr. Kim would “do what is right for his people and for
humanity.”
At her daily briefing, Sarah Huckabee
Sanders, the White House press secretary, offered no concern about Mr. Kim’s
visit to Beijing but declined to disclose the thrust of Mr. Xi’s message. “We
feel like we’ve made significant progress and we’re going to continue moving
forward in this process,” she said.
But there was little in the public accounts
of Mr. Xi’s discussions with Mr. Kim to support such a positive assessment.
Although Xinhua quoted Mr. Kim as saying he was open to talks with Mr. Trump
and committed to denuclearization, North Korea’s own state media made no
mention of either.
Xinhua also quoted Mr. Kim as proposing
“phased, synchronized measures” by South Korea and the United States — a phrase
that suggests a desire to negotiate a gradual drawdown of his arsenal, but
which also echoes the North’s position in past talks that dragged on and
ultimately failed. One major difference between then and now is that North
Korea has a far more advanced nuclear arsenal.
Mr. Trump’s incoming national security
adviser, John R. Bolton, meanwhile, has expressed little patience for extended
negotiations. He has said that North Korea should be asked to park its nuclear
arsenal at the Oak Ridge nuclear facility in Tennessee.
Some analysts in Washington saw Mr. Kim’s
visit to Beijing as a masterstroke that softened his international image as a
rogue figure and made him look as if he genuinely wants a peaceful resolution
to the conflict, potentially complicating Mr. Trump’s task in their upcoming
meeting.
“You’re building this momentum, looking
reasonable, looking willing to denuclearize,” said Sue Mi Terry, a Korea
scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, referring to the
North Koreans. All of which makes it harder for Mr. Trump to blame the North
Koreans if talks do not yield a breakthrough. “If we don’t play ball, with this
hawkish team in place with Bolton and so on, at least perception-wise we look
like we’re the problem,” she said.
If China decides to soften its stance on
sanctions and act as North Korea’s protector, Mr. Kim will enter the talks in a
considerably stronger position than he otherwise would have.
“It is very unlikely that Kim Jong-un
consulted with the Chinese before offering to meet Trump,” said Sergey
Radchenko, a professor of international relations at Cardiff University in
Wales. “This in itself was a rebellious affront to the Chinese leadership. But
by doing this, Kim immeasurably strengthened his negotiating position vis-à-vis
the Chinese. He came to Beijing not as a supplicant but as an equal.”
Victor Cha, who was at one point Mr. Trump’s
choice for ambassador to South Korea until the decision was abandoned, said
that besides the possibility of a reconciliation between Beijing and Pyongyang,
“the most potentially intriguing element of this” is that Mr. Kim traveled with
his entire entourage out of the country. “Shows he’s not worried about leaving
the palace vacant and vulnerable to some coup and that he will go abroad,” Mr.
Cha said.
Many analysts said they believed China had
initiated the visit, essentially telling Mr. Kim that he could no longer afford
to be cavalier about his bigger, richer neighbor, and telegraphing to Mr. Trump
that America could pay heavily for keeping China on the outside.
Beneath the new bonhomie in the official
accounts of Mr. Kim’s trip, the edgy nature of the seven-decade-old China-North
Korea relationship was still apparent.
No agreements between the two leaders were
announced, even on basic issues. Mr. Xi, in his public comments, made no
reference to Mr. Kim’s expected meeting with Mr. Trump, an omission that may
have reflected Mr. Xi’s displeasure at being left on the sidelines.
There was also no public comment in Beijing
about what Mr. Kim was planning to offer Mr. Trump or what role China would
play as the talks approached, questions of the utmost importance to China.
While China supports the international effort
to rid North Korea of nuclear weapons, it has also been careful not to press
the North hard enough to risk a collapse of the Kim regime, which could
potentially lead to a united Korean Peninsula, under an American security
umbrella, on China’s border.
“China needs to know North Korea’s
calculations,” said Da Wei, a professor at the University of International
Relations in Beijing. “Kim knows the negotiations cannot fully succeed without
China’s support. China’s involvement will make any solution more viable.”
Some analysts said Mr. Kim was repeating a
pattern set by his father, Kim Jong-il, who visited China before his 2000
summit meeting with South Korea’s then-president, Kim Dae-jung. Kim Jong-il was
then about six years into his tenure as North Korea’s leader, just as his son
is now.
“Now
six years into his own reign, Kim III seeks to play the role of the proactive,
peace-seeking statesman,” said Lee Sung-yoon, a professor at the Fletcher
School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
He may hope to get Mr. Trump to settle for
“another faulty, open-ended, non-biting nuclear deal” that would make it
“politically near-impossible for the U.S. to talk about, let alone implement, a
pre-emptive strike, John Bolton at the head of the National Security Council
notwithstanding,” Mr. Lee said.
Choe Sang-Hun contributed reporting from
Seoul, South Korea; Alexandra Stevenson from Hong Kong; and Peter Baker from
Washington.
