[In the nearly two decades since, the
country’s investment in becoming a nuclear weapons power has succeeded despite
diplomacy and international sanctions. In 2016, Mr. Kim launched dozens of missiles for tests and as
shows of military might. Some missiles could be launched from mobile pads and
submarines, making them easier to hide. They could potentially carry nuclear
warheads, according to Siegfried S. Hecker, emeritus director of the Los Alamos
National Laboratory in New Mexico, birthplace of the atomic bomb.]
By Rick Gladstone and Rogene Jacquette
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Ryoo Yong-gyu, a director
of earthquake and volcano monitoring in South Korea, spoke in Seoul about
seismic
activity on the Korean peninsula after a North Korean nuclear test in
September 2016. CREDITJEON
HEON-KYUN/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY
|
When North Korea tested a missile that fell
harmlessly into the sea this month, it was more than just an attempt by its
33-year-old leader, Kim Jong-un, to jolt a new American president. Arms experts
observed something new: solid-fuel technology that makes such missiles easier
to hide and launch quickly. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has
progressed in four areas that bear watching: arsenal size, bomb strength,
missile technology and ability to elude detection.
Arsenal
size: small, but thought to be growing
Knowledge of the weapons stockpile is based
on estimates. Experts say that North Korea has fewer than 10 nuclear weapons.
Satellite imagery of North Korea’s nuclear complex in Yongbyon, combined with
official North Korean propaganda photos and recent nuclear tests, suggests that
the country could rapidly expand its arsenal. By one estimate, the country now
has enough plutonium and highly enriched uranium to build 20 to 25 nuclear
weapons.
Explosive
power: from one kiloton to 10 kilotons in 10 years
The explosive force of North Korea’s first
nuclear device, tested in October 2006, was less than a kiloton, which is 1,000
tons of TNT. Its second test, in 2008, had more than double that force.
By January 2016, the country claimed to have
exploded a hydrogen bomb in a fourth test, but outside monitors expressed
skepticism. Seismic readings suggested an explosive force of four to six
kilotons.
Seismic readings of North Korea’s fifth test,
in September 2016, however, registered a force of approximately 10 kilotons,
according to South Korea’s Defense Ministry.
Technology: missiles could reach continental
U.S. by 2026
In 1999, George J. Tenet, then director of
the Central Intelligence Agency, said he
could hardly overstate his concern about North Korea’s program, warning that
the Taepodong-1 missile, with a reach of up to 1,243 miles, could deliver bomb
payloads to Alaska and Hawaii.
In the nearly two decades since, the
country’s investment in becoming a nuclear weapons power has succeeded despite
diplomacy and international sanctions. In 2016, Mr. Kim launched dozens of missiles for tests and as
shows of military might. Some missiles could be launched from mobile pads and
submarines, making them easier to hide. They could potentially carry nuclear
warheads, according to Siegfried S. Hecker, emeritus director of the Los Alamos
National Laboratory in New Mexico, birthplace of the atomic bomb.
He and other analysts have said they assume
North Korea has designed and demonstrated nuclear warheads that can be mounted
on short-range and perhaps medium-range missiles. Writing in September 2016,
Dr. Hecker said, “Pyongyang will likely develop the capability to reach the
continental United States with a nuclear tipped missile in a decade or so.”
Covert
capability: smaller, more mobile weapons
When he became North Korea’s top leader in
April 2012, Mr. Kim said that his “first, second and third” priorities were to
strengthen the military, and he declared that superiority in military
technology was “no longer monopolized by imperialists.” Less than three years later, Gen. Curtis M.
Scaparrotti, then commander of United States forces in South Korea, said he
believed that North Korea had made a nuclear weapon small enough to fit atop a
missile.
In May 2015, Mr. Kim said North Korea had the
ability to miniaturize nuclear weapons. That claim was greeted with skepticism
by analysts, but in March 2016 Mr. Kim was photographed admiring what state
media described as a home-built warhead. In August 2016 North Korea test-fired
a ballistic missile from a submarine, demonstrating a significant improvement
in its ability to strike enemies stealthily.
The missile test this month, analysts said,
further proved that North Korea was committed to producing more lethal systems
that could be deployed quickly. “The
North Koreans are sincerely paranoid,” said Joshua Pollack, a senior research
associate at the Middlebury Institute’s James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies. “They’re increasingly very blunt about how they would
use these things preemptively.”
