[The mismatch between the scale of the threat and Europe’s
patchwork response has contributed to a grim resignation among counterterrorism
professionals: Even after a series of terrorist strikes this year — including
two bursts of mayhem in Paris, deadly shootings in Copenhagen and a would-be
assault on train passengers foiled by off-duty U.S. servicemen — another
large-scale attack in Europe is almost inevitable.]
 |
| French gendarmerie officers patrol near the on Nov. 23. (Jacques Brinon/AP) |
PARIS — To carry out the attacks that
left 130 people dead in Paris
Poor information-sharing among
intelligence agencies, a threadbare system for tracking suspects across open
borders and an unmanageably long list of homegrown extremists to monitor all
gave the Paris plotters an opening to carry out the deadliest attack on French
soil in more than half a century.
Two weeks later, European
security experts say the flaws in the continent’s defenses are as conspicuous
as ever, with no clear plan for fixing them.
“We lack the most obvious tools
to deal with this threat,” said Jean-Charles Brisard, chairman of the
Paris-based Center for the Analysis of Terrorism. “We’re blind.”
With the Syrian war raging on
the continent’s doorstep and thousands of Europe ’s own citizens traveling to
and from the battlefield under the influence of a spellbindingly effective
propaganda campaign, Brisard’s bleak assessment is widely shared.
The mismatch between the scale of the threat and Europe’s
patchwork response has contributed to a grim resignation among counterterrorism
professionals: Even after a series of terrorist strikes this year — including
two bursts of mayhem in Paris, deadly shootings in Copenhagen and a would-be
assault on train passengers foiled by off-duty U.S. servicemen — another
large-scale attack in Europe is almost inevitable.
“We have to figure out what
went wrong and fix it as soon as possible. Because one thing is for sure:
Islamic State will try to hit Europe again,” said a senior European intelligence official who spoke
on the condition of anonymity.
Unlike in the United States Sept. 11, 2001 , attacks, when American officials vowed to do
whatever it took to prevent a repeat, Europe ’s leaders can offer few guarantees. They face
enormous structural holes in their security networks, and they have few obvious
solutions to a threat more potent than any the continent has confronted in
decades.
The Paris
attackers freely
exploited those flaws and offered a possible guide to others who could follow
in their blood-saturated wake.
Coordination between European
intelligence services is poor, with no comprehensive, shared list of suspected
extremists. So the attackers hopped freely and frequently over unguarded
European Union borders, with at least five also traveling to Syria
Most had already been flagged
as potential security threats. But so had tens of thousands of others — 20,000
in France
The attackers chose lightly
guarded targets, probably conscious that doing so would only add to the burden
of security services already buckling under the strain of austerity-imposed
budget reductions.
“The systems of European
security that at one time were useful and effective are no longer adapted for
this threat,” said Bernard Squarcini, a former head of France Paris
European security officials
have warned for more than two years about the threat of citizens returning from
the Syrian battlefield to wage war at home. But the Paris
Despite returnees being at the
top of Europe ’s threat list, the attackers
seemed to face little trouble shuttling back and forth between Islamic
State-controlled territory in Syria Brussels Paris
The failures reflect the
paradox at the heart of Europe ’s security dilemma: The continent’s citizens can freely cross
borders, but authorities lack access to shared databases on suspected
terrorists.
One of the attackers,
28-year-old Samy Amimour, was placed under judicial supervision in France Yemen Syria
Belgian law enforcement was aware that 20-year-old Bilal Hadfi had returned
from Syria
Another attacker, 31-year-old
Brahim Abdeslam, was caught on his way to Syria
Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the alleged
architect of the attacks, was one of Europe ’s most wanted men before the attacks. But the
28-year-old Belgian slipped from the radar of intelligence services and was
widely thought to be in Syria
In fact, he had returned to
Europe. But there was no trace of him until the night of
Nov. 13 — when phone records show he stood watching from the street as
police battled the militants he had sent to kill young music fans at Paris
At the root of the intelligence
failures, Brisard said, is a European security system that was
designed to guard against external threats and is ill-prepared now that it
faces such a sprawling challenge from its own battle-hardened and radicalized
citizens.
“The paradigm has changed,” the
terrorism analyst said. “We need to adapt.”
A good starting point, he said,
would be a systematic way of checking E.U. citizens against security databases
when they return from outside the union’s borders. Such checks have been
sporadic, as border guards typically confirm that the face of the traveler
matches the one in the passport.
After the attacks,
the E.U. stepped up its controls. But their effectiveness is severely limited. Europe lacks a common biometric
identification system, and the one shared database covers only those with
criminal records, not those who are suspected of extremist plots.
“We need a Europe-wide
blacklist of jihadists,” said Manfred Weber, the head of a center-right group
in the European Parliament that is pushing for tighter controls.
The idea of creating a “Passenger Name Record” — similar to the U.S. United States
There is little
intelligence-sharing across Europe , despite the continent’s open borders. Intelligence services
prefer to cooperate on a bilateral basis with favored partners, rather than
distribute information across a 28-member bloc. Even after the attacks,
analysts say, that’s unlikely to change at a time when terrorism, migration and
debt are pulling E.U. members apart rather than bringing them together.
“The crises facing Europe are taking their toll on trust
and unity,” said François Heisbourg, chairman of the International Institute
for Strategic Studies.
The strains can be seen in
European responses to the attacks, which have been marked by unanimous
expressions of solidarity with France
French officials have accused Belgium
Belgian security forces suffer
from tensions between their French and Flemish halves. Hard-line Saudi
preachers have long been allowed to preach in the country’s mosques, and a
thriving black market for arms has made weapons readily available.
More Belgians per capita have
traveled to Syria
The night she realized her
22-year-old son had left for Syria
But Yasmine, who spoke on the condition her last name not be used in order to
protect her family, said authorities failed to act.
Her younger son, 16, followed
his brother to Syria Syria
“They know what’s happening,
but they don’t intervene,” Yasmine said.
Alain Winants, head of Belgium
Experts say it is impossible
for security services to run surveillance on such a large number. But unless
the suspects commit a crime, they can’t be arrested, either.
Following the Paris
The measures, which will remain
in place for three months, may disrupt plots in the short term. But, given the
civil liberties concerns, Heisbourg said, they are hardly long-term solutions
for Europe ’s struggle with violent
extremism.
“My house could be raided by
cops tomorrow without a warrant. This is very radical stuff,” he said. “We’re
doing the right thing. But this can’t be made into the new normal.”
Morris reported from Brussels Paris London
