[But Mr.
Obama, like President George W. Bush before him, is trying to balance pressure
on Pakistan with signs that Washington still considers it a vital
ally. Congress was notified just days ago about the proposed sale of the additional
fighters, although it is not clear if the White House plans to announce the
sale of the aircraft during the visit.]
An F-16 refueling in the air
during a drill. (The Times of Israel)
|
The
decision comes ahead of President
Obama’s meeting on Thursday with Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif, which is to be dominated by the president’s decision to
extend the American troop presence in Afghanistan and a quiet effort to get Mr.
Sharif to halt the deployment of a new generation of tactical nuclear
weapons.
But Mr. Obama, like President
George W. Bush before him, is trying to balance pressure on Pakistan with signs that Washington still considers it a vital
ally. Congress was notified just days ago about the proposed sale of the additional
fighters, although it is not clear if the White House plans to announce the
sale of the aircraft during the visit.
The
Federation of American Scientists, a leading American group that monitors the
spread of nuclear
weapons, published a report on Wednesday that shows that Pakistan has expanded its arsenal to
110 to 130 warheads, up from a range of 90 to 110 four years ago.
While those figures show a
steady but expected increase, the group estimated that by 2025 the figure would
rise to 220 to 250 warheads. That would make Pakistan the world’s fifth-largest
nuclear power, behind the United States , Russia , China and France , but ahead of Britain , which is shrinking its
arsenal.
It is the nature, not the size,
of Pakistan ’s nuclear arsenal that tops
Mr. Obama’s agenda. Over the past two weeks, officials in Washington have said
they are exploring whether a deal might be possible to halt the deployment of
tactical nuclear weapons that American experts fear are vulnerable to being
launched without authorization, or stolen, on the battlefield. Until earlier
this week Pakistani officials had said nothing about the program, although the
foreign secretary, Aizaz Chadhary, told reporters in Islamabad on Tuesday that the country
had built “low-yield nuclear weapons” to counter India , according to the Dawn, a major
daily newspaper in Pakistan .
It is unlikely that either side
will talk publicly about nuclear weapons on Thursday, but Mr. Obama plans to
raise the issue at length, according to administration officials. Selling Pakistan more arms, however, is an
issue that is often discussed more publicly to signal that Pakistan is acting in its role as a
“major non-NATO ally,” a designation Mr. Bush bestowed after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 .
The
new aircraft, whose sale could be blocked by Congress, would add to Pakistan ’s already sizable force of
fighter jets — it has more than 70 F-16s and dozens of French and Chinese
attack aircraft. But perhaps of equal importance to supporters and critics
alike is the symbolic value of the sale to an ally whose relationship with the United States has been marked by long
stretches of acrimony in recent years.
Much of the tension has arisen from Pakistan ’s ties to elements of the
Taliban, especially the Haqqani Network, which is linked to Al Qaeda and is
seen by American commanders as the most deadly faction of the Taliban fighting
in Afghanistan . In recent years, numerous
American officials have publicly and privately complained about the support to
the Haqqanis provided by Pakistan ’s main spy agency, the
Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence.
At the same time, many American
officials have continued to insist that the best path forward with Pakistan is to work with its elected
leaders and military commanders in hopes of convincing them to crack down on
all militants, not just those who actively fight the government there. The
Obama administration is also looking for Pakistan to help bring the Taliban to
peace talks — an effort that the administration has pursued for years. As a
result, officials are loath to antagonize Islamabad at a crucial moment in the war
in Afghanistan .
The Afghan peace process
appeared to be gaining momentum this summer with meetings between Afghan
officials and Taliban representatives in Pakistan . But it was derailed by news
that the Taliban’s elusive leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, died about two years
ago, and the insurgents have made significant gains in the months since. Late last
month they seized a city for the first time since 2001, taking Kunduz,
Afghanistan, and holding off Afghan forces for more than two weeks before
pulling back.
Fearful
that Afghan forces would be outmatched without American support, Mr. Obama
announced last week that American troops would remain in Afghanistan through the end of his term.
But after 2016, there would only be about 5,500 Americans left in Afghanistan , so the administration is
eager to revive the peace process, which is expected to be on the agenda when
Mr. Obama and Mr. Sharif meet on Thursday.
While
Pakistan has gone after Qaeda
operatives since 2001, and allowed the C.I.A. drone program to strike targets
in the country’s tribal areas, it has also provided a safe haven for the
Taliban and supported elements of the Afghan insurgency. Pakistan has also supported other
militant groups fighting in Kashmir and targeting India .
Many in Congress fear that the
F-16 jets are more useful to Pakistan in its long confrontation with
India than for counterterrorism. It
is unclear if Congress will approve the deal: Congress and the State Department
are already in a standoff over an effort to sell used Navy cutter vessels to Pakistan earlier this year.
In March, the House Foreign
Affairs Committee put a hold on about $150 million in foreign military
financing — aid from the United States that foreign allies could use to
purchase American weapons and other military equipment, said American
officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the issue has not
yet been made public.
The committee said the cutters
were not essential to fighting militants, the officials said. But in a letter
sent in February to Secretary of State John Kerry, Representative Edward Royce
of California , the committee’s chairman, and
Representative Elliot L. Engel of New York , the ranking Democrat,
outlined their broader concerns about Pakistan .
“We remain deeply concerned
that Pakistan has failed to take meaningful
action against key Islamist terrorist groups operating within its territory,”
they wrote.
The letter urged the
administration to change its approach to Pakistan , suspend some assistance and
begin imposing travel restrictions and sanction officials thought to have ties
to militants.
Follow
the New York Times’s politics and Washington coverage on Facebook and Twitter, and sign up for the First
Draft politics newsletter.