October 7, 2015

RUSSIA STEPS UP ROLE IN SYRIA AS ASSAD BEGINS A GROUND ATTACK

[It was not immediately clear whether the cruise missiles hit targets in the area of the Hama assault, though there are some indications they did. One monitoring group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, reported that at least four ground-to-ground missiles were used in the area. Those missiles, used by the government, would be hard to distinguish from the sea-launched missiles or from some types of airstrikes.]

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A site in the Syrian town of Babila that were reportedly hit by Russian
airstrikes on Wednesday. Credit Khalil Ashawi/Reuters
BEIRUT, Lebanon Backed by Russian warplanes, the Syrian army began a ground offensive Wednesday against rebel forces in northern Hama province, while the Kremlin said it had fired 26 cruise missiles on Syrian targets from naval vessels in the Caspian Sea.
Although in its early stages, the coordinated assault reveals the outline of a new alliance between Syria and its main allies — Hezbollah, Iran and Russia — said an official with that alliance, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the parties had not detailed the coordination of military strategy.
The offensive aims to retake areas gained in the spring by an insurgent coalition, the Army of Conquest, that threated the government-held coastal province of Latakia, the homeland of President Bashar al-Assad and fellow members of his Alawite sect. It was the first time since those spring setbacks that the government’s forces had moved “from defense to offense,” the official said.
It was not immediately clear whether the cruise missiles hit targets in the area of the Hama assault, though there are some indications they did. One monitoring group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, reported that at least four ground-to-ground missiles were used in the area. Those missiles, used by the government, would be hard to distinguish from the sea-launched missiles or from some types of airstrikes.
There were also airstrikes elsewhere in Syria, according to SANA, the state news agency, which said that Syrian and Russian warplanes worked together to target ISIS fighters in Bab, a city long held by ISIS in eastern Aleppo province.
Russian officials said the sea-launched missiles targeted ISIS, but Western officials say the great majority of their attacks have been direcgted against rebel groups fighting Mr. Assad. There were no reports of large explosions in ISIS-held parts of Syria farther east, making it less likely that the cruise missiles went there.
The news of the missile attack came via a televised meeting between the Russian defense minister, Sergey K. Shoigu and the President Vladimir V. Putin.
“That we fired from the territory of the Caspian Sea, at a range greater than 1,500 kilometers, and hit targets precisely, this shows high qualifications,” Mr. Putin said, referring to naval crew members. Mr. Shoigu said that no civilians had been injured in the attack.
The ground operation will eventually include new contingents of fighters from Hezbollah, a Shiite militia, as well as the current configuration of Syrian forces backed by Russians in the air, according to the official with the alliance. In addition, Iranian military advisers have long been active on the ground in Syria and would most likely be involved in such a crucial operation.
Speaking in tones of new confidence and optimism, the official called the Russian intervention a game-changing development that put to rest any doubts about Russia’s commitment to Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, who has managed to cling to power despite a civil war that is now in its fifth year.
The ground offensive aims to push insurgents out first in northern Hama Province, where the attacks on Wednesday took place, later moving north into Idlib Province, according to the official and to diplomats and analysts in the region. Probable targets include Jabal al-Zawiya, a mountainous area that insurgents have held for years, and Jisr al-Shughour, a city in Idlib Province, which was captured by insurgents in March — a military victory that was considered an ominous sign for the Syrian government.
The Army of Conquest is an Islamist faction that includes the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, as well as more secular groups that often fight alongside it, including some that have received American aid. Russia has so far refused to make a distinction between the Army of Conquest and the Islamic State, labeling both groups as terrorist.
At certain points in Wednesday’s fighting, United States-backed rebels fired advanced TOW anti-tank missiles at Syria’s Russian-made tanks, amplifying the impression of a proxy war between Russia and the United States. Videos posted by rebel groups, including the American-backed Division 17 and Suqoor al-Ghab, showed the guided missiles sailing toward approaching tanks and destroying them.
The TOW missiles were provided to some groups in a covert CIA program meant to strengthen relatively moderate, relatively secular forces. But it has suffered setbacks, and the groups have primarily found that they must either fight alongside Nusra or have its weapons seized by the group.
That has put the United States in the uncomfortable position of having groups it has supported using their TOW missiles to help the advances by larger, more powerful Islamist groups, including the Nusra Front, listed as a terrorist group. On the one hand, the groups are serving their purpose, fighting Mr. Assad’s army, and the commanders say they must stay in the game or lose all hope of influence; on the other hand much of the credit and spoils of victory go to Nusra.
On Wednesday, though, they helped blunt the start of the new ground offensive.
Russian diplomats, a senior Foreign Ministry official said, have asked the United States to identify armed groups other than units of the Syrian Army that are fighting the Islamic State and that should be avoided in airstrikes, but the official said the Russians had not yet received an answer.
“If there are some forces that also have weapons in their hands and are on the ground fighting, as the coalition says, with the Islamic State, and they should not be touched, then wonderful,” the official said. “Give the list, give the call signs of these people. Tell us where are they located, explain why they shouldn’t be touched. Indeed, this information is not provided.”
When asked in a news conference in Rome about the new Syrian ground offensive, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter, lamented “the Assad regime’s use of violence against its own people.”
Mr. Carter added that “to the extent that Russia enables that, that’s the fundamental reason we believe Russia is making a mistake in their actions in Syria.”
He took issue with what he said were suggestions in the news media that the United States was cooperating with Russia on Syria. He said that the only exchanges that the Pentagon and the Russian military could have on Syria at the moment were technical discussions on how to steer clear of each other’s way in the skies above the country — called “deconfliction” talks.
NATO has repeatedly warned Russia — so far, to little effect — that its military intervention will only worsen the situation on the ground. NATO Officials did not have an immediate response to the cruise missile deployment on Wednesday, but pointed to earlier remarks by its secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg.
“I can confirm that we have seen a substantial buildup of Russian forces in Syria,” Mr. Stoltenberg said at a news conference on Monday. “Air forces, air defenses, but also then ground troops in connection with the air base they have.”
He continued, “We also see increased naval presence of Russian ships, naval capabilities outside Syria or the eastern part of the Mediterranean.”

Anne Barnard reported from Beirut, and Andrew E. Kramer from Moscow. Helene Cooper contributed reporting from Rome, and Alexandra Odynova from Moscow.

@ The New York Times