[The meltdown, which has erased
nearly $10 trillion from the global stock market since a peak on June 3, poses
a challenge to the Federal Reserve in the United States . The central bank’s
chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, and her colleagues on the Fed’s policy board have
been warning investors for months that the central bank was moving
toward the first
increase in its main interest rate since it was cut to zero in December 2008.]
点击查看本文中文版 Read in Chinese
PARIS — The global market turmoil
continued on Monday, as
stocks fell sharply in Europe and Asia , led by another big sell-off
in China.
Investors’ concerns over China’s economic
slowdown and a souring
view of emerging economies have rattled financial markets around the world in
recent days, and showed no signs of letting up.
In China , the benchmark Shanghai composite index closed 8.5
percent lower, erasing all of the gains it had made in an extraordinary run-up
this year. And in Europe , stocks fell sharply, with the main indexes down by 4 percent
or more in the early afternoon.
Futures for the Standard &
Poor’s 500-stock index slumped nearly 4 percent in premarket trading, pointing
to a big sell-off at the opening bell in New York . The S.&P. 500 fell 3.2 percent on Friday. Nasdaq futures fell 5
percent as Apple, which has given up nearly 13 percent of its value in August,
slid 10 percent in Germany .
Philippe Gijsels, head of
research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets in Brussels, said there was no
sense that an apocalyptic sell-off was at hand, with the United States and
European economies able to withstand a bout of turmoil.
“We see this as a very nasty
correction,” he said, “not the start of a new bear market.”
The meltdown, which has erased
nearly $10 trillion from the global stock market since a peak on June 3, poses
a challenge to the Federal Reserve in the United States . The central bank’s
chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, and her colleagues on the Fed’s policy board have
been warning investors for months that the central bank was moving
toward the first
increase in its main interest rate since it was cut to zero in December 2008.
But higher interest rates could
further rattle markets. “September is probably off the table for a rate hike,”
Mr. Gijsels said, adding that even December was looking unlikely.
Many analysts have said that a
correction to stock market valuations was overdue after a long bull market. And
it is too early to say how the financial market slump will affect the
underlying global economy where goods and services are actually produced and
consumed.
Commodities also suffered
Monday. Futures for Brent and United States crude oil fell to their lowest
point in more than six years on concerns about possible weaker demand from Asia amid a general oversupply.
Contracts for the European benchmark Brent crude fell 3.7 percent to $43.80 —
its first time below $45 since March 2009.
The selling in China has accelerated despite
extraordinary government intervention in the past two months aimed at propping
up share prices. As the slide on Monday highlighted, those efforts have not
been a success and the damage has been felt far beyond the Chinese market. The
gloom was shared across Asia . In Japan,
the Nikkei 225 stock average closed 4.6 percent lower, while Australia ’s main index fell 4.1 percent.
In Hong
Kong, where the Hang Seng Index closed 5.2 percent lower, the mood
at brokerages was grim.
“People who had wanted to
bottom feed by buying earlier this morning are all losing money,” said Andy
Wong, a Hong
Kong
stockbroker. “The market trend does not look good, it is all bad news,
globally. All the markets are going down, globally; the Chinese stock markets
are in free fall today.”
Leung Chung, a 62-year-old
retiree and day trader in a T-shirt and with a toothpick in his mouth, looked
sourly at the monitors at his local brokerage in late morning. “I just
purchased some stocks earlier this morning, but have already lost money,” Mr.
Leung said. “I am not too concerned as I only bought stocks with solid
financial strength.”
The dollar rose against most
Asian currencies, with the exception of the yen, which is considered a regional
haven. The dollar fell 1.5 percent to 120.18 yen.
The euro gained 0.9 percent
against the dollar, trading at $1.1491.
Lee Hardman, a currency analyst
at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London, said in a research note that the
rising euro and yen were “creating a policy headache for the European Central
Bank and Bank of Japan,” as well as for the Fed.
Stronger currencies, he said,
would make it harder for central banks to fight deflationary pressures. He
noted that long-term forecasts for the eurozone showed inflation beginning to
return to the levels that existed before the European Central Bank began its bond-buying program this year.
The rout has deepened globally
as uncertainties have increased over the health of China ’s economy, previously a major
engine of global growth. The surprise devaluation on Aug. 11 of China ’s currency, the renminbi, was
the biggest drop since the country’s modern exchange rate system was
established in 1994.
The move raised concerns that China ’s slowdown was worse than it
had previously appeared to be, a development that would have far-reaching
effects, given China ’s increasing economic
importance to Asia and the rest of the world.
“Asian financial markets are
seeing an intensification of selling pressure in the aftermath” of China ’s devaluation, Claudio Piron,
a strategist in Singapore for Bank of America Merrill
Lynch, wrote on Monday in a research report. “The market’s confidence in China ’s ability to deliver growth
remains in question.”
One big question is whether China ’s stock market plunge will
make the Chinese economy, the world’s second largest after that of the United States , even weaker. China ’s exports were down 8 percent
in July compared with a year earlier, while auto sales were down 7 percent.
But Xu Sitao, the chief China economist in the Beijing office of Deloitte, said in a
speech in Hong
Kong
that the effect on the economy could be muted because equities represent only 7
percent of the overall wealth of urban Chinese households, which continue to
rely very heavily on real estate in their holdings.
“The stock market really has a
very, very insignificant impact on the Chinese economy,” he said.
Instead, China ’s slowdown is being driven by
more traditional industry. On Friday, new data showed China ’s manufacturing sector
contracted in the first three weeks of August at the fastest pace since the
depths of the financial crisis.
It was the latest sign of
continued deterioration in industrial activity across China , suggesting that the
government’s efforts to support growth — which include several interest rate
cuts and directing billions of dollars in new loans to infrastructure projects
— have fallen short.
At the same time, state
intervention in the stock markets appears to have backfired. China ’s stock markets had enjoyed a
tremendous rally, more than doubling in the year to mid-June. But they have
plunged since then, despite the government ordering state agencies to buy
shares and barring large shareholders from selling down their stakes.
Despite this, the market
continued to slump. On Monday, the Shanghai index fell to its lowest level
this year; it traded as low as 3,191.88 points, a drop of 9 percent from the
close on Friday and nearly 40 percent below its peak in June. Mainland shares
are only allowed to rise or fall by 10 percent per day before they are
suspended from trading. Shares in more than 800 of the nearly 1,100 companies
in the Shanghai index fell by the limit.
The plunge in Shanghai came despite an announcement
by China ’s government on Sunday that
the country’s pension funds had been approved for the first time to invest in
stocks.
Pension funds can now invest as
much as 30 percent of their holdings in the stock market, according to the
statement by the State Council, China ’s cabinet. The main state-run
pension fund manages about 3.5 trillion renminbi, or about $550 billion, in
retirement savings of ordinary citizens.
Many economists now expect the
central bank, the People’s Bank of China, to cut the ratio of deposits that
banks are required to keep on reserve in a bid to help stem outflows of
capital, which rose to a record of $70 billion in July and probably accelerated
in the weeks since the renminbi was devalued.
Reducing this so-called reserve
requirement ratio, or R.R.R., would help bring down rates in China ’s money markets, which have
been climbing in recent months, despite the central bank’s recent attempts to
add more liquidity.
“Economic activities remain
weak and the likelihood of an imminent R.R.R. cut has increased,” Li-Gang Liu,
the chief economist for China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group,
wrote on Monday in a research report. “In the near future, we expect the
People’s Bank of China to continue managing market liquidity conditions.”
David Jolly reported from Paris, and Neil Gough from Hong Kong . Keith Bradsher contributed
reporting from Hong Kong . Cao Li contributed research from Beijing .