[A secret war in Ukraine, murder in London, incursions into others' airspace. His behaviour is getting worse]
By Joan Smith
So what does history tell us about the
behaviour of Europe’s biggest country, Russia, which is currently fighting an
undeclared war with its neighbour, Ukraine?
I’ll come back to that in a moment but
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, singled out Russia’s military
ambitions in a speech on Friday, describing 2014 as “a black year” for European
security. He revealed that the alliance recorded more than 400 incursions into
foreign airspace by Russian warplanes last year, around four times as many as
in 2013. The previous day, British fighters were scrambled to intercept two
Russian bombers over the English Channel, an episode that resulted in the
Russian ambassador being summoned to the Foreign Office.
Around the time Stoltenberg was giving
his assessment of the Russian threat to peace, the reality of the situation in
Ukraine was brought home by the shelling of a cultural centre in Donetsk,
killing at least six people. In theory, the conflict is between Ukrainian
forces and pro-Russian separatists who have declared a breakaway republic, but no
one seriously believes that Russia isn’t behind the fighting. More than 5,000
people are believed to have been killed since April yet public attention, which
suddenly turned to Ukraine after the shooting down of a Malaysian passenger
plane in July last year, is focused elsewhere.
While the terrorist organisation
Islamic State (Isis) is responsible for huge numbers of casualties, it has
killed far fewer people in Europe than have died in the Ukrainian conflict. It
could be argued that the spectacular type of warfare favoured by Isis has
actually done the Russian government a favour, deflecting attention with a
series of attention-grabbing atrocities. Russia’s tradition of covert warfare
is long-established, and some Kremlin officials visibly enjoy the process of
repeating denials which are bare-faced lies.
In a repeat of recent history, dead
Russian soldiers are once again being returned to their families without any
information about where they were killed. The names of more than 260 have been
published on a website run by opponents of President Putin, along with a map of
eastern Ukraine showing where they died. The Russian government denies
involvement but 10 Russian paratroopers were captured in Ukraine in August. The
mother of a Russian soldier, whose body was returned with his legs blown off,
said he had phoned her to say his unit was being deployed to Donetsk.
When something similar happened during
the second Chechen war, the Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya interviewed
bereaved mothers and wrote about what was going on. She was assassinated in
Moscow on President Putin’s birthday in 2006, a month or so before the Russian
spy Alexander Litvinenko was murdered in London. At a public inquiry last week,
Litvinenko’s death was described as “an act of nuclear terrorism on the streets
of a major city”. Ben Emmerson, the QC representing Mr Litvinenko’s widow, said
the trail led directly to Putin and called for him to be “unmasked by this
inquiry as a common criminal dressed up as a head of state”.
This is a staggering statement. Some
commentators are reluctant to accept it, arguing that Putin genuinely feels
under threat from Nato; Greece’s inexperienced new government, led by the
coalition of left-wing parties known as Syriza, is making friendly overtures towards
Russia. No one wants a new cold war but the evidence suggests they’re making a
mistake of epic proportions: what European leaders are dealing with here
is classic psychopathic behaviour. Putin displays a complete absence of
empathy and is painfully thin-skinned; he found being mocked by the punk band
Pussy Riot so intolerable that two of the women ended up in penal colonies.
Even more alarming is his lack of fear and enjoyment of risk, which means he
enjoys baiting people he sees as opponents.
All of this brings me back to the
problem with learning from history. The leader-as-psychopath is far from
unusual: Saddam Hussein displayed similar characteristics, although a closer
parallel in this instance is Stalin. The question is what to do about it, and it
would help if people who make excuses for Putin stopped fooling themselves
about how dangerous he is. I’ve believed this ever since the assassination of
Politkovskaya, whom I knew slightly, and I’ve watched the evidence accumulate:
at least 29 journalists have been murdered in direct connection with their work
since Putin came to power: opponents have had their assets seized and been sent
to harsh prisons in Siberia; neighbouring countries live in fear of
cyber-attacks, such as the one on Estonia in 2007, or military invasion.
The Conservative MP Rory Stewart, who
chairs the Defence Select Committee, described last week’s incident over the
Channel as “a symptom of a much bigger pattern which means we got Russia
wrong”. I think it’s more accurate to say that world leaders got Putin wrong,
treating him as an authoritarian who would nevertheless keep his behaviour
within recognisable boundaries. Remember when George W Bush gave him the
affectionate nickname Pootie-Poot? If history teaches us anything, it is that
treating unstable psychopaths as if they are normal, reasonable people doesn’t
work.
Psychopaths love attention, so allowing Putin to host big
sporting events such as the Winter Olympics and the World Cup is a mistake.
They like to feel important, so he shouldn’t be invited to attend summits with
other world leaders. His behaviour is escalating as economic sanctions start to
bite, which is why he is sending military aircraft to test the air defences of
other countries. He isn’t going to give up power of his own accord, which means
that keeping open back-channels to people around him is vital. Europe
didn’t pick this fight, but we should be in no doubt that Russia under Putin is
an unpredictable rogue state.
