[The movement in Telangana was built on the idea that people from the region lost out on jobs and resources like water and electricity to wealthier migrants from coastal Andhra Pradesh. The elder Mr. Rao became one of the loudest voices of that complaint, and positioned his party as the face of the Telangana movement – and the natural heir to the Telangana state, which will be formally created on June 2, after the vote.]
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Mahesh Kumar A./Associated Press
A woman casting her vote at a polling station on the outskirts of Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, on Wednesday. |
HYDERABAD, India — Ever since the
bill recognizing Telangana as the nation’s 29th state passed unanimously through Parliament on Feb. 18,
politics in this heart-shaped region of south India have been as muddled and
dramatic as a soap opera, with failed alliances and accusations of broken
promises and backstabbing between lawmakers.
News and analysis on
the world’s largest election.
The biggest loser in
the drama is likely to be the Indian National Congress, credited for creating
the state, but facing at best uncertain prospects for the 17 parliamentary
constituencies of Telangana that went to the polls on Wednesday.
After the bill passed,
it was widely expected that the Telangana Rashtra Samithi — a pro-statehood
party founded by Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao in 2001 — and the Congress
party would merge, consolidating the public enthusiasm for Telangana into
political power.
But on March 4, Mr.
Rao ruled out the merger, a surprise decision that
drew sharp rebukes from the Congress party leadership. During a rally on Sunday near Hyderabad, the
capital of Andhra Pradesh, the Congress party president, Sonia Gandhi, said
that Mr. Rao had “not fulfilled his promises” and had “cheated the Congress.”
On Monday, Rahul Gandhi, her son and the party’s vice president, called Mr. Rao a liar and a backstabber.
Political analysts now
say the move to split Andhra Pradesh amounted to a severe political misstep for
the beleaguered Congress party.
“If you were the party
that created Telangana, you would naturally expect some political benefits out
of it, but that didn’t happen,” said Nagesh Kumar Susarla, a former editor at
The Hindu and a political commentator based in Hyderabad.
He said that the best
case scenario for the Congress party in the new state they helped to create was
six or seven seats in the Lok Sabha, or the lower house of the Indian
parliament. As for Seemandhra, the other part of the bifurcated state that goes
to the polls next week, fierce local resistance to the split means that the
Congress party would get no more than one or two seats, Mr. Kumar
predicted. For a party that won 33 parliamentary seats in a united Andhra
Pradesh in 2009, that outcome would represent a stunning reversal of fortunes.
In a phone interview
on Monday, Kalvakuntla Taraka Ramarao, son of Mr. Rao and a leader of the
Telangana Rashtra Samithi, defended his father’s decision and dismissed the
Gandhis’ accusations.
“The fact that we’ve
gone alone in the election should tell you our confidence levels are high,” he
said. “Who is Sonia Gandhi to talk about betrayal anyways? Her party has been
backstabbing the people of Telangana for five decades. Back in 2004 Mrs. Gandhi
promised Telangana – could she explain why it took 10 years, when in the end it
was an expedited political decision?”
State representatives
of the Congress party declined requests for comment.
The movement in
Telangana was built on the idea that people from the region lost out on
jobs and resources like water and electricity to wealthier migrants from
coastal Andhra Pradesh. The elder Mr. Rao became one of the loudest
voices of that complaint, and positioned his party as the face of the Telangana
movement – and the natural heir to the Telangana state, which will be formally
created on June 2, after the vote.
“The people of
Telangana took in T.R.S. as their own entity,” Mr. Taraka Ramarao said,
referring to the Telangana Rashtra Samithi.
But because of some
loyalty toward the Congress party in the state, and because of their superior
resources, his party’s victory is by no means guaranteed. A third contender in
the elections in Telangana is the alliance of Telugu Desam Party and the
Bharatiya Janata Party, both of which are aiming to win a few seats.
“T.R.S. doesn’t have a
party structure with local committees and a cadre to create strong grass-roots
support,” said Mallepally Laxmaiah, the co-chairman of the Telangana Joint
Action Committee, an influential group of activists for Telangana. “So that’s a
big negative for them. In every village there is a Congress person to rally
voters, which will work to their advantage.”
There are further
indications that the Congress party still has a role to play in state-level
politics, even with its mismanagement of the statehood demand. In a twist
on Monday, the elder Mr. Rao said in a news conference that he would
support Rahul Gandhi as prime minister, even conceding that Sonia Gandhi “was
the main reason behind the formation of Telangana.”
Mr. Kumar, the
political commentator, said the move revealed Mr. Rao’s uncertainty about the
post-election landscape, and a desire to avoid completely alienating the party
that could help him win a majority in the state assembly elections, which are
being held simultaneously.
“There are 119 seats
in the Telangana Assembly, and he is not sure of getting to the halfway mark of
60 seats,” Mr. Kumar said. “So he is banking on Congress to bail him out.”
[Mr. Jaitley, who is close to Narendra Modi, the B.J.P.’s prime ministerial candidate, chose to fight a direct election for Parliament’s lower house in order to secure some popular legitimacy for himself and strengthen his case for an important position in the next national government, which is likely to be led by the B.J.P.]
AMRITSAR, India – On Sunday afternoon, Arun Jaitley, a senior
leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party and leader of the opposition in
Parliament’s upper house, was driven to Lawrence Road, a busy thoroughfare in
Amritsar, the second-largest city in the western state of Punjab.
There, a sprawling
banquet hall mostly reserved for weddings had been transformed into Mr.
Jaitley’s campaign headquarters; it swelled with party workers, journalists and
dozens of Mr. Jaitley’s relatives. Soon after arriving, Mr. Jaitley disappeared
into a back room, where he held long discussions with party leaders to prepare
for what may be the most critical moment of his political career.
On March 15, Mr.
Jaitley was announced as the B.J.P.’s lower house of Parliament candidate from
Amritsar, a constituency the party has held since 2004. Amritsar seemed a safe
choice for Mr. Jaitley, a master strategist and election manager for the
B.J.P., who entered Parliament through an indirect election to the upper house.
Mr. Jaitley, who is
close to Narendra Modi, the B.J.P.’s prime ministerial candidate, chose to
fight a direct election for Parliament’s lower house in order to secure some
popular legitimacy for himself and strengthen his case for an important
position in the next national government, which is likely to be led by the
B.J.P.
However, what in the
beginning had seemed a straightforward and smooth ride for Mr. Jaitley has been
transformed into one of the most competitive and high-profile contests of this
election.
A week after Mr.
Jaitley’s candidacy was announced, the Indian National Congress party, in an
uncharacteristic and inspired move, chose Amarinder Singh, a political
heavyweight and a former chief minister of Punjab, to run.
The entry of Mr. Singh
has rattled Mr. Jaitley, who now finds himself thrust into a contest far
tougher than he expected. “The odds are stacked against Mr. Jaitley,” said
Sankarshan Thakur, a commentator on India’s right wing and roving editor at The
Telegraph newspaper. “He is contesting his first election in late-midcareer, and
a loss would deal him a blow.”
Mr. Jaitley is also
fighting a wave of discontent against the Shiromani Akali Dal, the governing
party in Punjab’s state legislature and an ally of the B.J.P. The tenure of the
Shiromani Akali Dal, which has been in power in the state since 2007, has been
marked by corruption, lawlessness and poor economic performance. Punjab, once
India’s wealthiest state, has fallen into ruin, struggling with poor
infrastructure, rotting cities and agricultural decline.
Mr. Jaitley is further
hobbled by the unpopularity of Bikram Singh Majithia, a local legislator from
Amritsar and revenue minister in the Punjab state government, who has been
accused of running a drug racket in the state.
Widespread drug abuse, itself a result of
unemployment and poverty that have followed Punjab’s economic descent, is a
significant cause for anger and concern in the state. Although no definite
statistics are available, around two-thirds of Punjab’s youth are estimated to
be addicted to medical and synthetic drugs.
On Sunday evening,
crowds assembled at Novelty Chowk, in the heart of Amritsar, where Mr.
Jaitley was due to make an appearance.
Surinder Sharma, a
49-year-old doctor, had left his clinic early to catch a glimpse of Mr.
Jaitley. Like large swaths of India’s middle class, Mr. Sharma had become fed
up with the Congress party. “Manmohan Singh was an intelligent man, but he
couldn’t change anything at the ground level,” he said. “Even Sikhs are
disgusted with him.”
Mr. Sharma was
enthusiastic about Mr. Jaitley’s candidacy. “This man has vision. He will do
good work and be our voice in Parliament.”
Mr. Jaitley emerged
from his meeting to campaign on the back of an open jeep, flanked by
motorcycles bearing B.J.P. flags. Vehicles fitted with loudspeakers and dozens
of party workers on foot followed.
A glib talker and
suave operator in New Delhi’s power circles, Mr. Jaitley thrives in television
studios, election war rooms and policy debates in Parliament. These skills,
however, are almost useless in the thrum of an Indian election campaign.
Mr. Jaitley, lacking
the swagger of natural politicians, appeared ill at ease in the raucous
delirium as his motor cavalcade navigated the streets of Amritsar. His body
language remained stiff, and he could barely bring himself to smile.
Waving comes to politicians
like second nature, but Mr. Jaitley often seemed lost, staring impassively into
the crowd.
Later that evening,
Mr. Jaitley drove to address a rally in New Amritsar, a modern enclave on the
outskirts of the city. A small stage had been erected on a wide avenue, and
several leaders of the Shiromani Akali Dal, including Mr. Majithia, joined Mr.
Jaitley.
Mr. Jaitley, speaking
to a small crowd, reiterated the pitch that could be the key to victory in
Amritsar: his stature and importance in a future government in New Delhi,
likely to be headed by the B.J.P. “I want to plead with Amritsar: Join yourself
with the Modi wave,” he said. “To make Amritsar a successful city, we need to
add Delhi’s power to it.”
In the last days of
the campaign, as Punjab readied to vote on Wednesday, Mr. Jaitley was pulling
out all the stops to ensure his first foray into parliamentary elections does
not prove a failure.
“My final request is
that please press the third button on the electronic voting machine. Don’t
remember any other button.”
Yet many people, even
within his own party, were worried that Mr. Jaitley may have committed a
mistake. One friend, who knew Mr. Jaitley from his days as a young lawyer in
Delhi, told me, “He could have contested from Delhi or Gujarat. I am not sure
if Amritsar was the right choice.”
A B.J.P. worker from
Amritsar, who was campaigning for Mr. Jaitley, said, “He is a good man. We are
desperate for him to win. But if anyone defeats him, it will be the Akalis.”
This is the first
piece of a two-part series on the crucial parliamentary race in Amritsar. Next:
a profile of Amarinder Singh of the Congress party, Arun Jaitley’s main
opponent in Amritsar.
