[Some might
scoff and say that there is no valid comparison to be made between the world of
the Late Bronze Age and our current technology-driven culture. And yet, there
are enough similarities between the two -- including climate change and
drought; earthquakes and tsunamis; diplomatic embassies and economic trade
embargoes; kidnappings and ransoms; murders and royal assassinations; magnificent
marriages and unpleasant divorces; international intrigues and deliberate
military disinformation -- that taking a closer look at the events, peoples,
and places of an era that existed more than three millennia ago is more than
merely an academic exercise in studying ancient history.]
Using theoretical models,
the applied mathematician Safa Motesharri "explored the factors which
could lead to the collapse of civilisation, from population growth to climate
change" and warned of "impending global disaster." He cited the
Roman, Han, and Gupta Empires as past examples for the collapse of very
sophisticated civilizations and notes that "precipitous collapse(s)...
have been quite common."
We shouldn't be surprised
at all by Motesharri's predications. Indeed, a better example can be found in
the breakdown of multiple civilizations in 1177 BC, more than three thousand
years ago, when the Bronze Age Mediterranean civilizations collapsed one after
the other, changing forever the course and the future of the Western world. It
was a pivotal moment in history -- a turning point for the ancient world.
Thanks
to archaeological and geological studies, as I point out in my new book 1177 BC: The Year Civilization
Collapsed, we now have ample evidence that drought,
famine, earthquakes, migrations, and internal rebellions all contributed to the
end of the Bronze Age.
We also know that fairly
advanced civilizations like the Hittites, Egyptians, Mycenaeans, and Minoans
collapsed as a result, in part because of the cutting of the international
trade routes by shadowy migrating groups whom the Egyptians called the Sea
Peoples.
It was, in fact, a perfect
storm of calamities that brought down the kingdoms of the late Bronze Age just
after 1200 BC; a perfect storm that created havoc with globalized civilizations
that bear more than a passing resemblance to ours today.
Some might scoff and say
that there is no valid comparison to be made between the world of the Late
Bronze Age and our current technology-driven culture. And yet, there are enough
similarities between the two -- including climate change and drought;
earthquakes and tsunamis; diplomatic embassies and economic trade embargoes;
kidnappings and ransoms; murders and royal assassinations; magnificent
marriages and unpleasant divorces; international intrigues and deliberate
military disinformation -- that taking a closer look at the events, peoples,
and places of an era that existed more than three millennia ago is more than
merely an academic exercise in studying ancient history.
For instance, the economy
of Greece is currently in shambles and has been for a while now. Internal
rebellions have engulfed Libya, Syria, and Egypt, with outsiders and foreign
warriors fanning the flames. Turkey fears it will become involved, as does
Israel. Jordan is crowded with refugees. Iran is bellicose and threatening,
while Iraq is in turmoil. Newspaper and television programs today are full of
such stories; one cannot escape them. But they're not new. The same
descriptions fit the situation in 1177 BC.
Today, in the current
global economy, and in a world recently wracked by earthquakes and tsunamis in
Japan and the "Arab Spring" democratic revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia,
Libya, Syria, and Yemen, the fortunes and investments of the United States and
Europe are inextricably intertwined within an international system that also
involves East Asia and the oil-producing nations of the Middle East.
It is, I would argue, a
situation with parallels from the Late Bronze Age. To give just one
illustration, Carol Bell, a British academician, has recently observed that
"the strategic importance of tin in the [Late Bronze Age]... was probably
not far different from that of crude oil today."
Discussing
"collapses" and comparing the rise and fall of empires is not a new
idea; scholars have been doing it since at least the 1700s, when Edward Gibbon
wrote about the fall of the Roman Empire. A more recent example is Jared
Diamond's bookCollapse.
However, here we are
contemplating a globalized world system with multiple civilizations all
interacting and at least partially dependent upon each other. There are only a
few instances in history of such globalized world systems; the one in place
during the Late Bronze Age and the one in place today are two of the most
obvious examples.
Discussing the constant
rise and fall of empires over time is also not a new theme, for our world has
seen the Sumerians, Akkadians, Assyrians, Babylonians, Hittites, Neo-Assyrians,
Neo-Babylonians, Persians, Macedonians, Romans, Mongols, Ottomans, and others
come and go.
Nevertheless, we may wish
to pay attention to what has happened to previous societies and should not
think that our current world is invulnerable. We are, in fact, more susceptible
than we might wish to think.
While the 2008 collapse of
Wall Street in the United States pales in comparison to the collapse of the
entire Late Bronze Age Mediterranean world, there were those who warned that
something similar could take place if the banking institutions with a global
reach were not bailed out immediately. In a complex system such as our world
today, this is all it might take for the overall system to become destabilized,
leading to a collapse.
Motesharri's
NASA-funded model is not the only such study to warn that a 'perfect storm'
could easily occur again today; both the Guardian and The Independent cite
additional theoretical studies, including by Stephen Hawking, KMPG, and the UK
Government Office of Science.
Indeed, currently we are
facing the very same type of situation that they faced back in 1177 BC --
climate change, earthquakes, famines, droughts, rebellions. The only thing
missing from today's scenario are the Sea Peoples -- the mysterious invaders
from overseas.
So, what are we waiting
for? We can prepare for everything else that has happened so far, and that
might occur in the near future, if Motesharri and the others are correct, in
order to insure that history does not repeat itself at our expense.
In short, we should heed
well the lessons from the ancient world, if we do not wish our globalized
society to go the way of the Hittites, Mycenaeans, and Minoans and end up on
the ash-heap of history. It happened once three thousand years ago; it could
happen again quite easily, as these modern studies are now showing.@ Huffington Post
NASA-FUNDED STUDY PREDICTS IMPENDING COLLAPSE OF INDUSTRIAL CIVILIZATION
[The researchers believe that humanity is on a collision course with disaster, and they outline two likely scenarios. In the first, everything will appear to be fine for a short period of time, but eventually a small number of Elites will begin to deplete everyone’s resources. Even under the most “conservative” consumption rates, the Elites will take too much and cause a famine amongst the Masses and later themselves. In this model, society is sabotaged by human rather than natural forces. In an alternate future, the faster consumption of resources wipes out the Masses in a short period while the Elites still survive, but soon after disappear. In both situations, the Masses get hit harder and faster while the upper echelons fail to adjust their behavior until it is too late.]
By Morgana Matus
For years, scientists and social activists have warned that income inequality,
resource depletion, and unchecked population growth could lead to
the collapse of civilization. However policy makers have so far regarded these
assertions as little more than the predictions of delusional cardboard
sign-carrying oracles on street corners. A new study funded by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center confirms
these terrifying prophesies, stating that industrialized society as we know it
could completely collapse within the next few decades.
It happened to the Roman, Han, Gupta, and Mauryan empires, and now
NASA warns that utter destruction could befall our global economy as well.
Working with a framework that incorporates mathematical analysis, social
science, and observation of natural phenomena, the ‘Human And Nature Dynamical’
(HANDY) model projects “business as usual” could lead to the end of
industrialized civilization. Accepted for publication in the Elsevier Journal
of Ecological Economics, the study finds ample historical evidence
that overpopulation, failing agriculture, limited access to water, energy consumption, and the unequal
distribution of wealth could all combine to spell the end for society as we
know it.
The report predicts that increased strain on the ecological
carrying capacity of the Earth will further the stratification
of wealth, dividing society into what the researchers term the “Elites”
and “Masses”. As the rich hog all of the resources and dictate political
policy, they will allocate little to the majority of the population who are
also the ones responsible for creating their wealth. Advances in technology and
agriculture will not improve the situation by increasing resource efficiency
due to the fact that it will likely also raise consumption rates.
The researchers believe that humanity is on a collision course
with disaster, and they outline two likely scenarios. In the first, everything
will appear to be fine for a short period of time, but eventually a small
number of Elites will begin to deplete everyone’s resources. Even under the
most “conservative” consumption rates, the Elites will take too much and cause
a famine amongst the Masses and later themselves. In this model, society is
sabotaged by human rather than natural forces. In an alternate future, the
faster consumption of resources wipes out the Masses in a short period while
the Elites still survive, but soon after disappear. In both situations, the
Masses get hit harder and faster while the upper echelons fail to adjust their
behavior until it is too late.
To avoid an apocalypse, the scientists urge economic equality,
stark decreases in consumption, and the fairer distribution of resources.
Energy production should rely on cleaner, renewable technologies and support a
smaller, more conservative population. If humans are to survive on the planet,
immediate political action is needed to curtail the runaway growth of the
economy, the threat of pollution, and the unfair allocation of wealth. To
preserve not just the quality of life but its very existence, it is time to
restore balance to both natural and social systems.
