May 13, 2013

PAKISTAN'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER WANTS TO END DECADES-OLD FEUD WITH INDIA

Nawaz Sharif set to push through plans to curb power of generals, bolster economy and improve relations with India

By Jon Boone in Lahore, Jason Burke in Delhi and Emma Graham-Harrison in Kabul

Photograph: Shakil Adil/AP
Supporters of Nawaz Sharif celebrate his win in Karachi. Results suggest he will only need 
the support of a handful of independent candidates to secure a working
 majority in parliament.
The full scale of Nawaz Sharif's thumping victory in Pakistan's general election became clear on Sunday, making it far more likely the country's next prime minister will be able to govern without coalition deals and be free to push through what supporters see as a potentially revolutionary agenda.

Besides overhauling a moribund economy, Sharif, with his conservative Pakistan Muslim League, wants to end his country's decades-old feud with India and put Pakistan's meddlesome generals in their place.

It is a programme that has won him fans even among left-leaning critics who oppose his conservatism. It has also raised hopes in India and Afghanistan.

Although the final results are still days away, projections by Pakistani television stations suggested that Sharif would only need to secure the support of a handful of independent candidates, rather than rival parties, to secure a working majority in parliament.

On Sunday, Sharif was holed up in his luxury estate in Lahore working to form a government. Party sources said he hoped to be able to achieve this long before the two weeks allowed by the constitution.

"We have a very ambitious agenda for the first 100 days and we want to hit the ground running," said Tariq Azeem, Sharif's spokesman.

Barack Obama congratulated Pakistan on the completion of the election and said the US would work with the country's new government as an equal partner.

"The United States stands with all Pakistanis in welcoming this historic peaceful and transparent transfer of civilian power, which is a significant milestone in Pakistan's democratic progress," President Obama said in a statement.

"By conducting competitive campaigns, freely exercising your democratic rights, and persevering despite intimidation by violent extremists, you have affirmed a commitment to democratic rule that will be critical to achieving peace and prosperity for all Pakistanis for years to come."

Sharif, a billionaire steel magnate who came into politics under the wing of a military dictator in the 1980s, is an unlikely symbol of radical change in Pakistan.

During his previous period in government he ordered the abduction of a newspaper editor who had criticised him and pushed to introduce sharia law.

"He has evolved ever since he was sent into exile," said Mehmal Sarfraz, from the South Asian Free Media Association, referring to the 1999 military coup, led by the former army chief Pervez Musharraf, which forced Sharif to quit Pakistan.

Sharif distrusts the country's generals – who have toppled three governments since Pakistan was created in 1947, control vast economic interests and call the shots on the country's foreign policy.

But despite the military's muscle, Sharif has made it clear – including in interviews with Indian journalists who have taken a close interest in his campaign – that the army is constitutionally subservient to civilian politicians.
Sharif's ability to reach out across the political divide was reflected by the actions of Ayesha Siddiqa, a prominent academic and analyst, who said that when she went to the polling station on Saturday she had been intending to vote for the left-of-centre Pakistan Peoples party (PPP).

"I've always been a PPP supporter and yet I ended up voting for Sharif because who else is there? He is the only leader that will try and take back some power from [the military] establishment."

The military may resent any assertion of civilian power, particularly in the run-up to the end of Nato's combat mission next year in Afghanistan, a country where Pakistan's military spies – for reasons of grand strategy designed to limit Indian influence in the region – formerly played a key role in bringing the Taliban to power in the 1990s.

Sharif has talked of leaving Afghans to make their own decisions. Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan's president, said on Sunday he had approved of Sharif's campaign rhetoric that had "urged friendship and co-operation with Afghanistan".

However, critics of Sharif say he is too soft on Pakistani extremists and even militant groups that are ideologically close to the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, preferring to avoid confrontation with them.
Kickstarting Pakistan's sluggish economy, which is particularly weighed down by crippling energy shortages, is central to Sharif's entire programme.

He hopes to bolster growth partly by boosting the feeble levels of trade with India, which would also help improve relations between two countries that have fought three major wars against each other since 1947.
"All parties want peace with India," said Safraz. "But only Sharif can deliver because, as a rightwing Punjabi nationalist, his patriotism cannot be questioned. If he was in the PPP, he would have been called a traitor."
Sharif has said he wants to see a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir conflict and has promised to ensure attacks against India are not launched from Pakistan.

Staffers at the politician's campaign headquarters told the Guardian in April that Sharif, seen as close to Pakistan's conservative Islamists by many in Delhi, had always been pro-Indian. "He started as a businessman after all," one said.

As results came in on Saturday night, Sharif reminded reporters he had worked to lessen tensions with India before his ousting by Musharraf. "We'll pick [up] the threads where we left," he said.

Manmohan Singh, India's prime minister, spoke to Sharif on Sunday and invited him to visit India at "a mutually convenient time".

Fixing Pakistan's economic woes, however, will require policies – not least expansion of the tax net so more people pay – that could prove unpopular with Sharif's own business-world supporters.

He will also have to cut unaffordable electricity subsidies, perhaps raising the price for already hard-pressed consumers, as well as undertake radical surgery on Pakistan's bloated public companies, including the national airline.