[The
presidential race is now brimming with even more uncertainty as Mr. Obama
canceled a trip to Ohio on Wednesday and stays off the campaign trail for a
third straight day. Mr. Romney was set to resume his schedule in Florida and
Virginia, but he faced a delicate task of campaigning during a natural
disaster.]
By Jeff Zeleny And Dalia Sussman
 |
Michael F. McElroy for The New York Times
A supporter of President Obama watches one of the presidential debates in Dover, Ohio.
|
COLUMBUS, Ohio — As President Obama and Mitt Romney enter the closing week of the
presidential race, where the 18 electoral votes of Ohio are seen by both sides
as critical to victory, Mr. Obama’s ability to prevent erosion among
working-class voters may be his best path to re-election.
In
Ohio, according to the latest poll of likely voters by Quinnipiac
University/New York Times/CBS News, Mr. Obama runs nearly even with Mr. Romney
among white voters who do not have college degrees.
That
helps explain why he appears slightly better positioned there in the closing
week of the campaign than in Florida and Virginia, where the polls found that
Mr. Romney holds an advantage of about 30 percentage points among those voters.
The
presidential contest has become an intense state-by-state fight, with the
climate in Ohio shaped by months of efforts by the Obama campaign to portray
Mr. Romney as a job killer who opposed the president’s decision to bail out the
auto industry.
Mr.
Obama, who has a 50 percent to 45 percent edge here, also appears to be
benefiting from an economic recovery in Ohio that is running ahead of the
national recovery.
The
poll found that nearly half of all white voters without college degrees here
say the economy is improving, and most give Mr. Obama some credit. Only about a
quarter of those voters in Virginia and Florida say their economy is getting
better.
The
polls, along with interviews with strategists and supporters in the three
battleground states, illustrate the dynamic facing both campaigns in the final
days of the race. The race is essentially tied in Florida and Virginia, the
polls found.
The
presidential race is now brimming with even more uncertainty as Mr. Obama
canceled a trip to Ohio on Wednesday and stays off the campaign trail for a
third straight day. Mr. Romney was set to resume his schedule in Florida and
Virginia, but he faced a delicate task of campaigning during a natural
disaster.
But
the campaign is still very much alive here in Ohio, where Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama
are locked in a bitter duel over blue-collar voters. A dispute over the Obama
administration’s 2009 effort to rescue the auto industry boiled over yet again
on Tuesday, with the Romney campaign arguing in a new radio commercial that the
government’s $80 billion assistance plan helped China more than the United
States.
The
chief executive of Chrysler, Sergio Marchionne, took the rare step of disputing
a presidential candidate by calling the assertion “inaccurate.” He said
production would not be moved from the United States to China, adding: “Jeep is
one of our truly global brands with uniquely American roots. This will never
change.”
The
Ohio economy’s recovery has complicated Mr. Romney’s efforts to portray Mr.
Obama as an ineffective leader. The president is seen in a favorable light by
52 percent of likely voters, compared with 46 percent who have a favorable
opinion of Mr. Romney.
Yet
the poll here showed that the race is tight, with Mr. Obama’s five-point edge
the same as last week but cut in half from a month ago.
Among
the likely voters in Ohio who say they are paying a lot of attention to the
race, Mr. Obama’s edge narrows to one percentage point, or essentially tied,
which underscores the extent to which the race will turn on the get-out-the-vote
efforts of each campaign.
“It
seems like the economy is on an upswing,” Kathleen Foley, a special-education
teacher in Dayton, said in a follow-up interview. “I truly believe that in the
next few years, our economy is going to see an upswing. I’d like Obama to get
some credit for the work he’s done.”
In
the closing stages of the race, Mr. Romney has taken steps to emphasize the
moderate elements of his record. His campaign was running a television
advertisement here on Tuesday reminding voters that he supports abortion rights
in the case of rape, incest or to protect the life of the mother. Democratic
groups and the Obama campaign countered with their own ads.
The
economy remains the top issue on the minds of voters, the poll found, and the
ads were dismissed as not relevant by one poll respondent, Dana Hogan of
Cincinnati.
“Do
I really think we’re going to go back to the point where women won’t be able to
have abortions or birth control is going to be rationed? That’s just silly to
even think of,” said Ms. Hogan, who works at a small company and spoke in a
follow-up interview. “Some women do still get really riled up by that, but I
think it’s just a scare tactic. Really, you think women are that dumb?”
The
presidential race, which has largely played out in nine swing states, is
suddenly showing signs of expansion. The Romney campaign and Republican groups
announced new investments in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, a reflection
that the contest was tight across the country and their options in the existing
battleground states may not be enough for Mr. Romney to reach the necessary 270
electoral votes.
A
nationwide poll of likely voters from The New York Times and CBS News, which
was released Tuesday evening, found that more voters now view Mr. Romney as a
stronger leader on the economy and Mr. Obama as a better guardian of the middle
class. The president was the choice of 48 percent, with 47 percent for Mr.
Romney. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four
percentage points.
But
the biggest focal point of the race remains in seven states, particularly Ohio,
where Mr. Romney appeared for the last three days. Mr. Obama had been scheduled
to make two stops in Ohio on Wednesday before the storm hit the East Coast.
Both candidates are set to make multiple trips back to the state before
Election Day, aides said.
The
Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac and CBS News, has tracked the
presidential race with recurring polls in key battleground states. The three
latest surveys, which were conducted Oct. 23 to 28 among likely voters on
landlines and cellphones, are the final series in the project.
In
Florida, the overall race has narrowed considerably from a month ago, with Mr.
Obama now the choice of 48 percent to 47 percent for Mr. Romney. In Virginia,
Mr. Obama has 49 percent, with 47 percent for Mr. Romney. The results in each
state have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
In
each state, Mr. Obama holds a double-digit lead among female voters, while Mr.
Romney does better among men, especially white men. Most voters age 65 and
older in each state prefer Mr. Romney, while younger voters support Mr. Obama.
Voters who call themselves independents are closely split in Florida and Ohio,
the polls found, but support Mr. Romney by a wide margin in Virginia.
The
polls offer a window into the intensity of the campaign in these states, with
more than three in four likely voters in each state saying they are paying a
lot of attention to the election and wide majorities saying they have been
contacted by one or both campaigns.
Few
voters in each state — just 3 percent in Florida and Virginia, and 4 percent in
Ohio — remain undecided. And just 3 percent of voters who support a candidate
in Florida, and 4 percent in Ohio and Virginia, say they might change their mind.
In
Ohio and Florida, the voting is already well under way. The Ohio poll found an
advantage for the Obama campaign in their efforts to get out early voters.
Nearly one in four voters in Ohio said they had already cast their ballots, and
6 in 10 of them say it was for Mr. Obama, compared with 34 percent for Mr.
Romney.
The
poll found a closer race among the one in five voters in Florida who said they
had already voted, with 50 percent of them saying they backed Mr. Obama and 44
percent saying they supported Mr. Romney.
Jeff
Zeleny reported from Columbus, and Dalia Sussman from New York. Reporting was
contributed by Allison Kopicki, Marjorie Connelly and Megan Thee-Brenan in New
York, and Craig Duff in Cincinnati.
