[Talks
this year between Iran and the so-called P5-plus-1 — the five permanent members
of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany — have made little
progress. The New York Times reported Sunday that the United States and Iran
had reached an agreement in principle to hold direct talks after the American
presidential election. Mr. Obama denied the report but said in Monday’s debate
with Mitt Romney that he was open to such talks. ]
By David E. Sanger And William J. Broad
WASHINGTON
— Intelligence officials from several countries say Iran in recent weeks has
virtually completed an underground nuclear enrichment plant, racing ahead
despite international pressure and heavy economic sanctions in what experts say
may be an effort to give it leverage in any negotiations with the United States
and its allies.
The
installation of the last of nearly 3,000 centrifuges at a site called Fordo,
deep under a mountain inside a military base near the holy city of Qum, puts
Iran closer to being able to build a nuclear weapon, or come up to the edge, if
its leaders ultimately decide to proceed.
The
United States, Israel and the United Nations have all vowed to prevent that from
happening, imposing increasingly tough sanctions on the country and using cyberwarfare to slow its
progress in obtaining a weapon. President Obama said last week that the time
for a negotiated settlement was “running out.”
Talks
this year between Iran and the so-called P5-plus-1 — the five permanent members
of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany — have made little
progress. The New York Times reported Sunday that the United States and Iran
had reached an agreement in principle to hold direct talks after the American
presidential election. Mr. Obama denied the report but said in Monday’s debate
with Mitt Romney that he was open to such talks.
Iran’s
progress at Fordo was disclosed by officials familiar with the findings of
inspectors from the International
Atomic Energy Agency who have been to the site recently as part of
their regular visits. The officials included some from European governments who
have opposed taking military action to slow the Iranian program, arguing that
sanctions — with a mix of covert action — are far preferable.
The
report comes at a moment when Iran has emerged as a point of contention in the
foreign policy debates surrounding the approaching election. Mr. Romney has
charged that the president has been “weak” on Iran, and said that Iran’s
production of nuclear material had expanded greatly during Mr. Obama’s tenure.
But he also embraced diplomacy in the debate on Monday.
Asked
about the intelligence reports, Tommy Vietor, the spokesman for the National
Security Council, said, “While we can’t comment on a report that has yet to be
released, we remain concerned about Iran’s defiance of its international obligations.”
He noted that “the president is determined to prevent Iran from getting a
nuclear weapon and continues to believe there is time and space for diplomacy.”
Until
just two months ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel suggested he
would not allow the Fordo plant to go into operation, warning that once it did
Iran would have begun to enter a “zone of immunity” where it could produce
nuclear fuel without fear of an Israeli strike. Israel does not possess the
bunker-busting bombs that would be needed to destroy the facility, though the
United States does have one weapon that can do the job: the “massive ordnance
penetrator” that just entered the American arsenal.
In
September, however, Israeli officials suddenly stopped using the “zone of immunity”
phrase, and Mr. Netanyanu told the United Nations that he could wait until late
spring before any taking military action, saying that was when Iran would be on
the cusp of the ability to produce a bomb. European and American officials
interpreted that announcement as evidence that Mr. Netanyahu concluded that
Israel could not get through the more than 200 feet of rock over the Fordo
plant without American help.
The
prospect of a renewed round of diplomacy may explain the pace of activity at
the underground site. The fact that the Fordo plant is approaching full
operation, shortening the amount of time it would need to build a weapon, gives
Iran added ability to exert pressure on the United States and its allies. “When
slapped with new sanctions,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a former State Department
official who now studies the Iranian program at the International Institute for
Strategic Studies in London, “Iran typically likes to pick up the pace of its
enrichment work to try to show that it can’t be pressured into submission.”
The
installation of the last centrifuges at Fordo represents a milestone for the
Iranians that the Obama administration hoped to avoid. In September 2009, Mr.
Obama, along with the leaders of Britain and France, revealed the existence of
the site, in an effort to galvanize international efforts to stop Iran’s
program. His top national security aides predicted that the public
exposure would force Iran to abandon the plant.
While
that did not happen, a senior administration official said Thursday that the
exposure of the plant’s existence three years ago “eliminated its use as a
‘sneak out’ venue,” because it forced Iran to allow inspectors inside the
facility. “Sneak out” is a phrase that connotes covert production of bomb fuel,
while “break out” is used to describe a race for a bomb. Mr. Obama, in the
Monday debate, insisted that “we have a sense of when they would get breakout
capacity,” a phrase that left many thinking that was the line he would not let
Iran cross.
While
the plant is not yet fully running — fewer than half of all its centrifuges are
spinning out enriched uranium — Iran could have it doing so within months,
officials say. Fordo is designed to make “medium enriched” fuel that is
relatively close to bomb grade, and American officials worry that, in a
relatively short amount of time, that fuel could be converted to a type
suitable for weapons. But as Mr. Vietor noted, with inspectors visiting, “We
are in a position to closely observe Iran’s program and detect any effort by
Iran to begin production of weapons-grade uranium.”
In
August, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Fordo was roughly
three-quarters complete, and that Iran had installed 2,140 centrifuges there, a
doubling since a previous report three months before.
@ The New York Times
[Citing the great challenges facing Israel from within and without, including the threat of a nuclear Iran, Mr. Netanyahu said, “Together, we will seek a mandate from the public to lead Israel powerfully in the coming years.” ]
By Isabel
Kershner
JERUSALEM — The prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
announced Thursday that his conservative Likud Party would run on a joint
ticket with the nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu Party in January elections. The
surprise joining of forces immediately shook up Israel’s political map and was
apparently intended to cement Mr. Netanyahu’s chances of leading the next
government.
The
move sharpened the contours of the left and right camps in Israeli politics
after years during which the major-party leaders, including Mr. Netanyahu, had
gravitated toward the political center. Political opponents from the center and
left warned that the unification of Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Foreign
Minister Avigdor Lieberman,
reflected a creeping extremism that would not serve Israel.
By
joining up, Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Lieberman clearly intended to bolster their
tickets and guarantee their leadership of a strong governing coalition in the
coming years.
“This
joining of forces will give us the strength to defend Israel and the strength
to make economic and social changes within the state,” said Mr. Netanyahu,
standing alongside Mr. Lieberman at a televised news conference timed to be
broadcast live on the evening news programs.
Citing
the great challenges facing Israel from within and without, including the
threat of a nuclear Iran, Mr. Netanyahu said, “Together, we will seek a mandate
from the public to lead Israel powerfully in the coming years.”
Mr.
Lieberman, a Russian speaker who immigrated to Israel from Moldova in 1978, is
a blunt-talking politician whose party has advocated some contentious and
populist policies, like a demand for a loyalty oath in Israel because of
concerns about the country’s Arab citizens.
“We
have chosen the option of national responsibility,” Mr. Lieberman said at the
news conference.
In
Israel’s splintered political scene, splits and mergers are common, and the
plethora of parties representing different sectors of the population and
interest groups has produced unstable coalitions for decades.
In
the current 120-seat Parliament, Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu together command 42
seats, and sit together in a coalition made up of six parties with close to 40
ministers and deputy ministers. If the new superparty were to garner a similar
number of mandates in the coming elections, or more, it would be able to form a
coalition that would be dependent on fewer parties.
There
has been feverish speculation in Israel of late that the only possible
challenge to Mr. Netanyahu would come from a return to politics by Ehud Olmert,
the former prime minister, as the leader of a newly formed coalition of
centrist and leftist forces. Bogged down by legal problems, Mr. Olmert has not
yet announced his intentions.
Many
commentators said the new rightist merger would neutralize any threat from such
a coalition of center and leftist parties.
Others
saw the merger as a risky gamble that could potentially benefit the opposition.
“In
the last campaign for the 2009 elections, Netanyahu played the center ticket,
and that was the policy of his government,” said Abraham Diskin, a political
scientist at Hebrew University and the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya.
“The risk now is of deterring centrist voters.”
But
commentators noted that Mr. Lieberman, by becoming No. 2 in the newly merged
list, was inching closer to his ultimate goal of one day leading the right wing
in Israel.
“Lieberman
is assuming the position of Netanyahu’s successor, a move he has been dreaming
about for years,” said Raviv Druker, a political analyst, on Israel’s Channel
10 television.
@ The New York Times