[Indian politics often
seem like a never-ending chess game played on multiple boards by multiple
players in elections that deliver multiple messages. In Uttar Pradesh, all
those movable parts come into play in a single state. If Uttar Pradesh lacks an
overriding issue this time, analysts regard the race as a barometer of many key
issues shaping Indian politics: the changing roles of caste and religion, the
impact of public disgust over corruption and the rising public desire to share
the fruits of economic growth.]
By Jim Yardley
 |
RALLYING POINT Supporters listened to Akhilesh Singh Yadav, who could
lead the state of Uttar Pradesh if his Samajwadi Party regains power in
March. More Photos »
|
LUCKNOW, India
— With more than 200 million people, including some of the poorest on the
planet, Uttar Pradesh is so big that it could be the fifth-largest country in
the world. It is India’s biggest state, its biggest political prize and, with
elections this month, its biggest political unknown.
“This election has an
absolutely different quality,” said Anil Verma, a political scientist at Christ
Church College in Kanpur, and a leading analyst on Uttar Pradesh politics. “In
2007, we had a definite sense of how things were going to be. Things are very,
very strange, to my mind.”
Indian politics often
seem like a never-ending chess game played on multiple boards by multiple
players in elections that deliver multiple messages. In Uttar Pradesh, all
those movable parts come into play in a single state. If Uttar Pradesh lacks an
overriding issue this time, analysts regard the race as a barometer of many key
issues shaping Indian politics: the changing roles of caste and religion, the
impact of public disgust over corruption and the rising public desire to share
the fruits of economic growth.
It is tempting to frame
the election as a showdown between two of India’s most powerful political
figures: Rahul Gandhi of the
Indian National Congress party, which leads the national coalition government,
and Mayawati, the state’s incumbent chief minister and India’s most powerful
low-caste political leader.
Five years ago, Uttar
Pradesh vaulted Ms. Mayawati (who uses a single name) into national prominence
with a sweeping victory that gave her Bahujan Samaj Party, or B.S.P., control
of the state government. Her victory demonstrated the political muscle of her
core supporters, Dalits, the lower-caste Hindus once known as untouchables, and
set off talk about whether she could one day become prime minister.
Mr. Gandhi, himself
widely considered a possible future prime minister, has focused on Uttar
Pradesh in recent years, trying to woo Ms. Mayawati’s Dalit supporters as well
as Muslim voters, in order to restore the Congress party to power. Analysts
agree that only by regaining Uttar Pradesh, which it lost 22 years ago and has been
unable to regain, can the Congress party move closer to unshackling itself from
coalition politics at the national level and become a true majority party.
Yet Uttar Pradesh, like
Indian politics in general, can hardly be boiled down to two people and two
parties. The regional Samajwadi Party controlled the state before voters turned
it out, partly because of its reputation for lawlessness. Now it is trying to
recast itself and tap into the aspirations of the young voters by offering to
expand education and distribute laptops.
“People want change,”
said Akhilesh Singh Yadav, 39, who might become chief minister if the Samajwadi
Party can somehow regain power. “People want to throw this government out.”
The election will be
held in seven phases, beginning on Wednesday, as voting rotates to different
regions of the state before the final ballots are cast on March 3. Results will
be announced on March 6, along with tallies from four other smaller states,
Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur. For the Congress Party, a strong showing
in these states’ races could strengthen the national coalition government and
help reverse a 2011 political year marked by scandal and ineffectiveness.
In Uttar Pradesh, the
prizes are the 403 seats in the state assembly. Ms. Mayawati swept decisively
into power five years ago by gaining 205 seats for a rare one-party majority.
This time, her support is expected to weaken. The question is by how much. Her
five-year term has been marked by scandals and corruption allegations, if also by
programs to provide free housing for her Dalit vote base and others. In
particular, she has been criticized for spending huge sums on parks and statues
(including several of herself) and underfinancing social programs.
At a rally last week in
Barabanki, Ms. Mayawati stood before a crowd of about 8,000 people, campaign
flags fluttering. She acknowledged that “bad elements” had gotten into her
party during the last election but attributed the state’s problems to the
failure of the national government to provide adequate funds for state programs
and welfare plans.
“We are trying to help
all the poor people of all segments of society,” she said. “Because of that,
the poor have benefited in our state.”
Yet poverty remains
stubborn in Uttar Pradesh. One recent study concluded that 8 percent of the
world’s poorest people reside there. Literacy levels are among the lowest in
India; infant and maternal mortality levels are among the highest. India’s
overall progress on poverty and health issues depends on faster progress in
Uttar Pradesh — a point not lost on politicians trying to batter Ms. Mayawati.
“Do not underestimate
the impact of Uttar Pradesh on India,” Mr. Gandhi said in a nationally
televised news conference on Monday. “Uttar Pradesh is slowing India down, and
it is not Uttar Pradesh’s fault. It is the fault of the leaders of Uttar
Pradesh over the last 22 years.”
Mr. Gandhi and the
Congress party have blamed caste politics for the lingering backwardness of
Uttar Pradesh, promising to focus on development, yet caste and religion
continue to shape political equations. Mr. Gandhi is trying to siphon away
those Dalit groups that have seen the least progress under Ms. Mayawati’s
tenure. The Congress is also trying to lure back Muslim voters, many of whom
fled to the Samajwadi Party, with promises of affirmative action programs.
Yet Mr. Verma, the
political scientist, said that Uttar Pradesh voters did seem to be shifting
away from the trends of the past two decades, when voters thought that the best
way to obtain the benefits of development was to elect someone of their own
caste as a middleman.
“There appears to be a
shift in emphasis,” he said. “Earlier, the emphasis was caste, and development
through caste. But now the shift is to development, not caste.”
Given the likelihood
that no single party will win a majority of assembly seats, analysts expect
some sort of coalition government to be formed. Recent polls have suggested
that the Samajwadi Party might win the most seats, with the Congress party also
making significant gains. The Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., is also a
factor, while no one is discounting Ms. Mayawati’s ability to rouse her core
supporters.
“Understanding the murky
quality of politics here is not easy to do,” Mr. Verma said.
Hari Kumar contributed reporting.
@ The New York Times
The deposed president is famous for
his efforts to fight climate change, but his lifelong struggle has been for
democracy – and now I fear for his safety
By Mark Lynas
In the never-ending battle for democracy and civil rights,
sometimes democracy loses. So it was today, with the visit by the Russian
foreign minister to Damascus to shore up the murderous Assad regime, and the
sudden fall of President Mohamed Nasheed of theMaldives. These two events are
related, for Nasheed has a claim to have started the Arab Spring. The first
democratically elected leader of a 100% Muslim country, he swept away the
30-year dictatorship of Maumoon Gayoom in national elections back in 2008. Now
the Maldives sadly sees its spring being rolled back: a leader elected through
the ballot box has just been deposed by street violence and intimidation.
I doubt that Russia,
China or other autocratic regimes will shed any tears for Nasheed, but those
governments of the world that do value democracy and the rule of law should not
be under any illusions about what has just taken place. The former dictator
Gayoom and his forces never accepted the outcome of the 2008 elections, and
their networks of power and influence were increasingly threatened by Nasheed's
campaign against corruption in the judiciary. Indeed, this crisis was sparked
by the arrest of senior court judge who had repeatedly refused to prosecute
corruption cases in order to protect powerful allies from the former regime.
Recently the opposition had begun to use inflammatory antisemitic and jihadi
hate-speech to falsely accuse Nasheed of undermining Islam.
Using violence and then taking over the TV station, as well as
recruiting converts among the police, the anti-democratic opposition faced
Nasheed with a choice – to either use force or resign. Ever the human rights
activist, he chose the latter option and stepped down to avoid bloodshed. Even
as I write, his whereabouts are still unknown, and though he is supposedly in
the "protection" of the military I fear desperately for his personal
safety and that of his family. I have heard that he is currently being held
against his will under military house arrest, in which case he must be
immediately released. All I can do is take comfort from the fact that the
struggle can only continue for a man famous in the west for his outspokenness
on climate change,
but whose real lifelong cause has been his commitment to bringing democracy to
his Indian Ocean island homeland.
Over two decades of
campaigning against the Gayoom regime, Nasheed set up the Maldivian Democratic
Party in exile, and was imprisoned 16 times. He spent six years in jail, and 18
months in solitary confinement in appalling conditions, also suffering torture
at the hands of Gayoom's thugs. Nasheed's resignation speech says a lot about
the man: "I don't want to run the country with an iron fist," he
said. I can only imagine what he must be going through now, and what he has
gone through already in the past. He was declared an Amnesty International
prisoner of conscience in 1991. I don't think I have ever met a braver or
stronger person.
I was lucky enough to
work for president Nasheed over the last two years, as his climate change
adviser. His commitment to turning the Maldives into the world's first
carbon-neutral country was typically ambitious, and – although all bets are now
off – serious progress has already been made. He personally stood up to
bullying by China at the ill-fated Copenhagen talks in 2009, helping secure a
better deal for vulnerable island nations like his own.
I do not want this to
sound like Nasheed's political obituary. If I know the man at all, this coup
will not be the last word. We do not yet know whether democracy and freedom of
expression will be safeguarded in future in the Maldives under the new
government, but if it is not, I am certain Nasheed will be at the forefront of
any effort that is needed to protect these universal values. I pledge to stand
with him, and I hope others will, too.
