October 25, 2011

NOTES ON THE WORLD'S LARGEST DEMOCRACY : ELECTRICITY SHORTAGES COOL GROWTH

* In every South Asian country, except Bhutan and the Maldives, medium-size urban companies consider it one of the top two constraints, according to a World Bank report on jobs in South Asia, which will be released regionally in January.

* Not all of India’s neighbors have experienced the same job growth. In Pakistan, there was a broadly declining trend in per capita growth during the past 40 years. Sri Lanka showed accelerated growth over the past 50 years but had a dip in the 1980s. Nepal had stagnated per capital growth during the past 20 years.

By Sruthi Gottipati 

Prashanth Vishwanathan/Bloomberg NewsLaborers 
working at a construction site in Noida, 
Uttar Pradesh. 

What is the biggest problem companies in India and neighboring countries face today?
It’s not access to land, skills shortages, the vagaries of government policy or its red tape-laden bureaucracy.
It is electricity.
In every South Asian country, except Bhutan and the Maldives, medium-size urban companies consider it one of the top two constraints, according to a World Bank report on jobs in South Asia, which will be released regionally in January.
That was one of several surprising findings of the report, which is focused on the quantity and quality of jobs in South Asia in the last decade and is based on more than a year’s research.
Isabel Guerrero, World Bank vice president for South Asia, who worked on the report, sat down with India Ink recently to explain its findings.
“There has been a lot of growth of jobs in South Asia and the quality of these jobs has been improving,” Ms. Guerrero said.
“Jobs in every sector, every group of workers, all of them have seen an increase in wages.”
The good news, the report says, is that total employment in South Asia, excluding Afghanistan and Bhutan, has grown by an average of almost 800,000 new jobs per month. The less good news is that an estimated 1 million to 1.2 million new workers will join the labor market every month over the next few decades. And there needs to be enough jobs for them.
In almost all of the countries, the largest portion of workers is self-employed. But don’t think of a mass of small shopkeepers and businessmen: nearly a third of workers in India and a fifth of workers in Bangladesh and Pakistan are casual laborers, many of them just scraping by. Regular wage and salaried workers represent a fifth or less of total employment.
But an interesting finding of the report, as Ms. Guerrero pointed out, is that the quality of these jobs — measured by growth in real wages or falling poverty — has improved for all segments in the labor force. In India, over the decade between 1999 and 2010, there was a decline in the average number of months for which all casual laborers were without work despite looking for it.
Typically, salaried workers have the highest wages and lowest poverty rates, the self-employed are poorer, and casual labor, especially those in agriculture, have the lowest wages and highest poverty rates. The proportion of workers in different employment types has remained largely unchanged over time.
In other words, even if workers are not moving to better jobs the ones they have offer better wages.
In India, the report points to some positive signs in job creation: There’s been accelerated gross national product per capita, especially since the 1980s, which is a sign of economic growth.
Not all of India’s neighbors have experienced the same job growth. In Pakistan, there was a broadly declining trend in per capita growth during the past 40 years. Sri Lanka showed accelerated growth over the past 50 years but had a dip in the 1980s. Nepal had stagnated per capital growth during the past 20 years.
In the case of Pakistan and Nepal, Ms. Guerrero said, people sought jobs abroad and sent remittances back home. In India, although migration is also high, there was also significant domestic job creation.
The report found that labor force participation of women in South Asia is one of the lowest in the world.
And the lowest rates are in the largest countries: only a fifth of Pakistani women work outside the home, and a third in Bangladesh  and India.
It is not that women are not working. According to the report, household duties were cited as the most important reason for women not joining the labor force.
Ms. Guerrero also notes an important trend: When more women work, violence in the family also increased – but only initially. Eventually men see that women are bringing valuable income into the home and the violence reduces.
“It doesn’t happen overnight but it is happening in South Asia,”  Ms. Guerrero said.
Solving India’s key problem – the electrical power shortage – may require the country to form a strategy with its neighbors, with countries transferring power when they have an excess of it.
Ms. Guerrero said countries can take advantage of a dip in the electricity load due to time or climate differences. Central Asia, for instance, has surplus power in the summer, which it can export.
Ms. Guerrero also gives the example of Nepal. Although the country is currently importing electricity from India, with a stable political climate, it may be able to provide electricity in the future because of its rich Himalayan hydropower resources.
“Looking at the power question in a regional way is the way to go for the future,” she said. “It’s a win-win for both sides.”


IN LIBYA, MASSACRESITE IS CLEANED UP, NOT INVESTIGATED


[The lack of control came into sharp focus last week, when former rebel fighters arrested Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. In videos of the capture on Thursday morning, victorious fighters were shown manhandling Colonel Qaddafi, who appeared to be bleeding and distressed but conscious. This was moments after he was pulled from a large drainage pipe where he had hidden after a NATO air assault destroyed part of his convoy. Subsequent video shows his bruised corpse, with at least one bullet wound to the head.]
By  And 
Mauricio Lima for The New York Times
Volunteers in Surt removed bodies of people apparently killed
in reprisal by Many had their hands bound and had been shot
in the head. anti-Qaddafi militias.
SURT, Libya — In the parched garden of the Mahari Hotel, volunteers on Monday scrubbed signs of a recent massacre. They collected dozens of bodies, apparently of people executed on the hotel grounds several days ago, but left other evidence behind, like the plastic ties that were used to bind the hands of victims and shell casings, scattered on the dead grass in patches of blood.
The volunteers said the victims included at least two former Qaddafi government officials, local loyalist fighters and maybe civilians. The killers, they believed, were former rebel fighters, belonging to anti-Qaddafi units that had used the hotel as a base in recent weeks. It appeared to be one of the worst massacres of the eight-month conflict, but days after it occurred, no one from Libya’s new government had come to investigate.
The interim leaders, who declared the country liberated on Sunday, may simply have their hands full with the responsibilities that come with running a state. But throughout the Libyan conflict, they have also shown themselves to be unwilling or incapable of looking into accusations of atrocities by their fighters, despite repeated pledges not to tolerate abuse.
The lack of control came into sharp focus last week, when former rebel fighters arrested Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. In videos of the capture on Thursday morning, victorious fighters were shown manhandling Colonel Qaddafi, who appeared to be bleeding and distressed but conscious. This was moments after he was pulled from a large drainage pipe where he had hidden after a NATO air assault destroyed part of his convoy. Subsequent video shows his bruised corpse, with at least one bullet wound to the head.
On Monday, Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, the chairman of the Transitional National Council, as the interim governing body is known, announced the formation of a commission of inquiry into the death of Colonel Qaddafi.
In his announcement, Mr. Abdel-Jalil acknowledged that pressure from foreign powers and rights groups — including some that supported the rebellion — had prompted the decision to investigate how Colonel Qaddafi wound up dead with a bullet to the head. Mr. Abdel-Jalil referred to “demands of the international community” for an investigation.
But it was unclear from his comments how much authority the committee would have to pursue an investigation and whether anyone might be held accountable. He also suggested that anti-Qaddafi fighters may not have been the ones who killed him, hinting that the fatal bullets might even have come from Colonel Qaddafi’s own supporters. That suggestion is sharply at odds with the video evidence that has surfaced of Colonel Qaddafi’s death.
As in several previous instances during the uprising when anti-Qaddafi fighters were suspected of abuses or of extralegal killings, the leaders of the rebellion face a delicate balance as they try to bolster their own legitimacy by courting or coddling powerful militia leaders. The interim leaders have also failed to establish a chain of command among the armed militias, despite repeated attempts to form a national army.
Some of the anti-Qaddafi fighters have been accused of arbitrary arrests and torture, and others have been implicated in killings. In August, Gen. Abdul Fattah Younes, the rebel’s top military commander, was killed in Benghazi along with two of his aides, Mr. Abdel-Jalil also said then that there would an investigation, asserting that no one, not even the highest officials, would be immune.
At the time, Mr. Abdel-Jalil suggested that Colonel Qaddafi’s loyalists might have been responsible, even as his colleagues conceded that rebel fighters were the chief suspects in the killings. No one has been prosecuted for the killing.
On Monday, in offering his new theory for how Colonel Qaddafi may have died at the hands of his own disciples, Mr. Abdel-Jalil suggested that they may have feared he would implicate them in atrocities if he had survived and been put on trial.
“Let us question who has the interest in the fact that Qaddafi will not be tried,” he said. “Libyans want to try him for what he did to them, with executions, imprisonment and corruption. Free Libyans wanted to keep Qaddafi in prison and humiliate him as long as possible. Those who wanted him killed were those who were loyal to him or had played a role under him. His death was in their benefit.”
This theory appeared to be an attempt to deflect sharp international questions about the government’s handling of Colonel Qaddafi’s final moments. The body, which has been on public display since Thursday in the western city of Misurata, was scheduled to be buried on Tuesday in a secret location in the desert, according to a Transitional National Council official, Reuters reported. Saying that the “corpse cannot last longer,” the official said Muslim clerics would attend the ceremony.
The colonel’s death has ended the fighting for now, but abuses by former rebel fighters continue: they were seen looting generators, cars and an exercise bike in Surt on Monday.
The Mahari Hotel, which overlooks the sea, was filled with suspicious signs about the killers, but nothing conclusive. The names of anti-Qaddafi brigades were scrawled on a whiteboard in the lobby, including brigades called Tiger, Lion, Panther and the Sand. Several of the brigades listed were from Misurata.
At a graveyard near the hotel, a local doctor looked after the massacre victims, photographing the bodies and pulling a tooth from each victim, collecting evidence for the men’s families and for a criminal trial, should one take place. He ordered an assistant to splash water and spray insect repellent on the decomposing corpses that were waiting for burial.
Several of the victims wore fatigues. The hands of one man, who looked to be in his 20s, were bound behind his back. Several victims wore bandages, leading the volunteers to speculate that they had been patients at the city’s main hospital who were detained when the former rebels captured it.
Another doctor, watching, shook his head. “What kind of democracy costs all this blood?” he said.
The doctor, who requested anonymity because he feared retribution by former rebel fighters, said that if the killings were not investigated, the inaction would fuel dangerous resentments. “There will be no peace in Libya for years,” he said.
Kareem Fahim reported from Surt, and Adam Nossiter reported from Benghazi, Libya. Rick Gladstone contributed reporting from New York.