[A World Bank report on climate change impact based on case studies in drought-prone regions of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, and flood-prone districts in Orissa on the edge of climate tolerance limits, highlights the possibility of declining the yields of major dry land crops in Andhra Pradesh, sugarcane yields declining by 30% in Maharashtra and rice production by 12% in the flood-prone coastal regions of Orissa. The worst sufferers would be the poor and marginal farmers who own less than one acre of land and mostly populate these regions.]
By Dr Amrit Patel
The UN Conference on Climate Change in Copenhagen 18th December’09 did not yield expected results. Meanwhile it is,
therefore, necessary that each individual country should formulate its own
action plan to minimize the incidence of carbon emission to the maximum extent
possible within its own resources and capabilities and monitor meticulously on
an annual basis in the interest of human survival. It should concentrate more
on research and development effort too. The principle of common but differentiated
responsibilities has been occupying a central place in all agreements on
climate change. In so far as India is concerned the common but differentiated
responsibilities should focus sharply on the concern, commitment and
accountability of all stakeholders for investing adequate resources to support
climate change mitigation, adaptation, technology development, transfer and
dissemination to make country’s agriculture resilient, since the Report on
Global Warming sufficiently warns that climate change is likely to affect
agriculture adversely & increase the risks of hunger & drinking water
scarcity due to enhanced variability & more rapid melting of glaciers.
Agriculture
According to World Meteorological Organization, climate change can
adversely impact global environment, agricultural productivity and the quality
of human life. More importantly in developing countries, it will be difficult
for farmers to carry on farming in the increased temperatures. Recognizing
this, it is necessary that India
According to FAO, “ocean warming,
frequent tropical cyclones, flash floods and droughts are likely to bring a
devastating impact on food production systems in Pacific islands countries” The Report on “Climate Change and Food Security in Pacific Island
Countries” says “climate change-related disasters have already
seriously constrained the development of these islands and reduced food
security, especially for households”. FAO hosted “High-Level Conference on World Food Security” from 3 to 5 June 2008 concluded with the adoption by acclamation of a
Declaration on World Food Security, as under.
“It is essential to address the question of how to increase
the resilience of present food production systems to challenges posed by
climate change. We urge Governments to assign appropriate priority to the
agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, in order to create opportunities
to enable the world’s smallholder farmers and fishers, including indigenous
people, in particular vulnerable areas, to participate in and benefit from
financial mechanisms and investment flows to support climate change adaptation,
mitigation and technology development, transfer and dissemination. We call upon
relevant inter-Governmental organizations, including FAO, within their mandates
and areas of expertise, with the involvement of national Governments, partnerships,
the private sector, and civil society, to foster a coherent, effective and
result-oriented international dialogue on bio-fuels in the context of food
security and sustainable development needs”.
Impact: Climate change affects everyone. But the worst sufferers would
be hundreds of millions of small and marginal farmers and people depending upon
forests, who are already vulnerable and food insecure. The rise in global
temperature on account of climate change would affect agriculture. While in
temperate latitudes a rise in temperature would help countries increase food
productivity, it will have adverse effects in India India
International Symposium on “Agro-meteorology
and Food Security” organized
in February 2008 in Hyderabad
Agriculture accounted for 70% of all water use in the world. Per capita
use of water has decreased from about 700 cubic meters per year since 1980.
More than 1.2 billion people live in areas of physical water scarcity and by
2025 over three billion people are likely to experience water stress. Climate
change will manifest its different types of effects on crops and livestock;
fisheries and aquaculture; land; water; biodiversity; and trans-boundary pests
and diseases as under.
Crops and Livestock: Climate change will affect on the health, growth and productivity of
crops, livestock, fish, forest and pasture in different ways. It will, also, have
an impact on the incidence of pests and diseases, biodiversity and ecosystems.
Frequent changes in weather parameters, more importantly temperature and
precipitation would not only threaten food production but also access,
stability and utilization of food resources. Adaptation to climate change will
need to focus on strengthening measures, such as early warning systems; systems
to identify climate change “hot spots” and disaster risk management; and
evolving sustainable and ecol-friendly farming practices. Other equally
important measures call for significantly increase in rural investments to
reduce the long-term effects of short-term climate variability on food
security, through provision of crop and livestock insurance and incentives that
encourage farmers to adopt farm and social forestry, conserve resource and
better agricultural and land use practices.
Fisheries and aquaculture: Climate change, more particularly harsher weather
conditions, will have impact on the quality, productivity, output and viability
of fish and aquaculture enterprises, thereby affecting fishing community. The
small-scale fishers may be faced with greater uncertainty as availability,
access, stability and use of aquatic food and supplies would diminish and work
opportunities would dwindle. Aquaculture development opportunities will
increase in particular in tropical and sub-tropical regions. The climate change
in warmer regions offers new opportunities as production in warmer regions will
increase because of better growth rates, a longer growing season and the
availability of new fish farming areas where it was once too cold.
Land:
Rising sea levels owing to climate change would force communities in low-lying
coastal areas and river deltas to move to higher ground level. Similarly,
increase in frequency of droughts due to climate change would force farmers and
pastoralists, who rely on rainfall to raise their crops and livestock, to
migrate to areas in search of land and water. This migration/displacement of
people would result in direct conflict and competition between migrants and
established communities for access to land and water. It may be difficult for
displaced communities to maintain their farming or pastoral traditions. A broad
based policy and program that provides opportunities for the displaced
communities to earn livelihood outside the agricultural sector may need to be
evolved. Governments would have, also, to face challenge to reconcile competing
demand and diverse land use needs. In cases, where land rights are informal and
different customary land tenure systems coexist, Governments and local
communities may need to establish fair and equitable systems of land tenure.
Water: The
climate change will have impact on the predictability and variability in the
availability of water and also increase in frequencies of droughts and floods.
Worst sufferers would be farmers of the rain-fed agriculture, which covers 60%
of all cultivated land in the country. The risk of crop failures will increase
in semi-arid zones with prolonged dry seasons forcing people to migrate, when
stability of food production cannot be assured. Irrigated areas in large river
basins and deltas can also be at risk because of a combination of factors, such
as reduced runoff, salinity, increasing floods, sea level rise, urban and
industrial pollution. All these in one or the other way will affect the land to
maintain the level of agricultural productivity and farm output; cause loss of
biodiversity and the reduction in the natural ability of ecosystems to recover.
Areas projected to experience lower precipitation will need to improve water
management system and water storage capacity that can enhance crop
productivity. While large irrigation schemes will need to adapt to changes in
water supply regimes, small-scale irrigation schemes will need field-based
water control measures.
Biodiversity: According to the “2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment”, the climate
change will cause loss of biodiversity by the end of this century. The
significance and utility value of biodiversity for food and agricultural
purpose will increase as and when climate changes. Genetic resources are the
living materials that local communities, researchers and breeders use to
develop high yielding crop varieties/strains that can adapt to changing needs.
Maintaining and using this reservoir of genetic diversity will be the
foundation for copping with climate change.
Trans-boundary pests and diseases: Climate change is altering the distribution
pattern of animal and plant pests and diseases. Changes in temperature,
moisture and atmospheric gases accelerate growth and generation rates of
plants, fungi and insects, which alter the interaction between pests, their
natural predators and hosts. Changes in land cover, more importantly deforestation
or desertification make remaining plants and animals increasingly vulnerable to
pests and diseases.
In order to contain the spread of pests, there is need for the
development of new farming practices and cropping pattern, evolution of
different crops and animal breeds, and adoption of integrated pest management.
Besides, countries need to introduce biological control agents, new pest or
disease-resistant varieties of crops and breeds of animals and strengthen
national animal and plant health services.
Studies in India
A World Bank report on climate change impact based on case studies in
drought-prone regions of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, and flood-prone
districts in Orissa on the edge of climate tolerance limits, highlights the
possibility of declining the yields of major dry land crops in Andhra Pradesh,
sugarcane yields declining by 30% in Maharashtra and rice production by 12% in
the flood-prone coastal regions of Orissa. The worst sufferers would be the
poor and marginal farmers who own less than one acre of land and mostly
populate these regions.
Climate change and agriculture are interrelated. Agriculture
contributes, of course partly, to the global warming by spewing greenhouse gas
and in turn gets affected by its consequences. However, greenhouse emissions
from different farm sectors and the effect of global warming on these sectors
have not been quantified, except in few cases, such as wheat. The Indian
Council of Agricultural Research [ICAR] has estimated that annual wheat output
may decline by four to five million tons with every one degree Celsius rise in temperature. The
impact of climate change will have to be mitigated by modifying farming
practices by farmers, for which ICAR has already undertaken various studies.
These studies emit some light on the emissions of greenhouse gases, such as
methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide arising from paddy fields and farm
animals. They also explain the impact of climate change on some crops and other
farm sectors like fisheries.
Rice: The
emissions, from country’s 42.21 million hectares of land under rice
cultivation, comprise about 2.07 Tg of methane [Tg is the unit of measurement
of greenhouse gas emissions and is equivalent to 1012 grams], 0.19 Tg nitrous
oxide and 72 Tg of carbon dioxide, annually. However, the emission levels vary
from region to region depending on cultivation practices and the inherent
carbon content of the soils. The methane outflow from the paddy fields of some
districts in West Bengal has been observed to be relatively high. This is
due to the presence of higher organic carbon content in the soils and the
traditional practice of keeping rice fields constantly submerged under water.
Similarly, emission of nitrous oxide is higher in paddy fields in Andhra
Pradesh and northern States because of application of high doses of nitrogenous
fertilizers. On the whole, the eastern and southern parts of the country have a
relatively higher global warming potential because of higher discharge of
methane and carbon dioxide and the predominance of rice cultivation in these
regions.
Water:
Studies on the impact of global warming conducted in Andhra Pradesh indicate
that the rise in temperature will lead to an increase in water requirement of
crops like maize, groundnut, pigeon pea and cotton, though their growing
duration will decrease by one to two weeks.
Livestock: In the case of methane emissions from the livestock sector, it has
been observed that though cross-bred cattle discharge relatively more methane
per animal, the bulk of the total emissions is accounted for by buffaloes and
indigenous cattle because of their far larger population. Of the total
livestock sector’s greenhouse gas emissions, female buffaloes contributed
59.6%, followed by indigenous cows 28.9% and cross-bred cows 11.5%. The total
emissions from this sector are reckoned at 9.37 Tg, varying in different years
from 7.26 Tg to 10.4 Tg.
Adaptation: Some crops have already begun adjusting to climate change. Since
temperatures in the traditionally apple-producing regions of hilly State
Himachal Pradesh have risen, with a simultaneous decline in rainfall, apple
cultivation is shifting to the higher altitudes in Kinnaur, Lahul and Spiti
districts. Similarly, in the case of marine fisheries, species like Indian
mackerel have tried to adapt themselves to the warming of the ocean waters by
shifting towards the northern latitudes where the warming is less pronounced.
Sardines have tended to spend more time in the lower depths of the oceans to
escape from warmer surface waters. Such observations are significant as they
can help farmers and fishermen modify their cultivation and fishing practices
to mitigate the economic consequences of climate change.
Mitigation and Adaptation
Agriculture is one of the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change has been a cause of serious concern if the agricultural sector
has to grow in the context of country’s overall economic growth, to respond to
rural households’ livelihood, country’s food security and poverty alleviation.
It may take some years to fully experience the devastating effects of climate
change on agriculture but the time is ripe for the Government, private sector
and public to have adequate concern, commitment and accountability to mitigate
the effects of climate change.
· Significantly investing in expanding, modernizing
and equipping agricultural meteorology facilities in all 127 agro-ecological
regions to make it world class, thereby continuously improving weather and
climate forecasting system.
· Evolving policy and programs to manage and
mitigate risks due to climate change.
· Improving early warning systems followed by
effective monitoring and evaluating its impact.
· Developing climate impact modules that give a
better understanding of how climate change may affect crop, livestock and fish
farming and forestry at a local level in order to be well prepared.
· Diversifying pattern of livelihoods and adapting
agricultural, fishing and forestry practices to efficient water management and
soil conservation practices and growing resilient crops and trees.
· Developing a database on climate, soil and water
use and crop yields to assess, map and monitor land-use performance under given
technology conditions.. Assessment of how vulnerable our food system is and how
we can adapt agriculture, livestock, fisheries and forestry to future
climate-related disasters. Increasing coastal inundation, salinisation and
erosion as a consequence of sea-level rise and human activities may contaminate
and reduce the size of productive agricultural lands, thereby threatening
households’ livelihood and country’s food security. Steps to mitigate the
impact of climate change on agriculture need top priority.
· Building sufficient resilience of the food
systems to avoid enormous future economic losses in agriculture, livestock,
fisheries and forestry.
· Evolving comprehensive climate resilience
strategies comprising risk assessment, development of varieties that can
perform well in stressful conditions, better land, water and livestock
management and bringing about specific changes in agricultural practices that
can respond to climate change.
· While agricultural research institutes and
universities have already been engaged in researching drought-resistant and
saline-resistant crop varieties for the arid regions and rainfall-tolerant and
short-duration varieties for flood-prone regions, Government and private sector
will have to invest substantially in agricultural research on one hand and
motivate/train farmers to take better advantage of the dry rabi season in the
flood-prone regions and help them supplement their income through non-farm activities
on the other.
Adaptation: Besides, following measures are necessary to better adapt to climate
change impacts
· To develop land use plans, food security
programs, fisheries and forestry policies that can help farming community
suitably adapt to climate changes.
· To undertake cost/benefit analyses of climate
change risks for irrigation or coastal protection and for investment decision.
· Promotion of “ best crop-livestock-fish farming
practices” through farmers’ capacity building and networking
· Conceptualization and Implementation of “National
Adaptation Program of Action on Climate Change”.
· Developing contingency plans to cover new and
evolving risk scenarios.
Conclusion
Agriculture development in India needs to focus on reducing greenhouse
gas emissions through measures, such as significant reduction of deforestation;
improving forest conservation and management; effective control of wildfires;
promotion of agro-forestry for food or energy; soil carbon sequestration;
restoring land through controlled grazing; improving nutrition for ruminant
livestock; efficient management of livestock waste [through biogas recovery];
and developing strategies that conserve soil and water resources by improving
their quality, availability and efficiency of use. While a National Network
Project “ Impact, Adaptability and Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to
Climate Change” has been launched with focus on impact of climate change on
different sectors of agricultural production” it is necessary to make
sufficient investment to support climate change to adaptation, mitigation,
technology development, transfer and dissemination among farmers.
@ Youth Ki Awaaz
@ Youth Ki Awaaz
