[For now the electoral victory in Morocco
remains largely symbolic. King Mohammed
VI proposed the referendum himself, but the revisions to the
Constitution it allowed ensure that he maintains nearly absolute political
power and unquestioned control over the military. And the Constitution’s
ability to bring real change to this centuries-old monarchy will largely depend
on how the text is applied to everyday politics.]
By Nadim Audi
RABAT, Morocco
— With the pace of democratic change stalled or staggering under violent
crackdowns in the Middle East and North Africa, Morocco’s
recent decision to alter its Constitution provides what some see as an alternative
to the bloody confrontations that have marked the Arab Spring.
Morocco’s decision — in
the form of a referendum to give more powers to elected leaders — was offered
as a unique answer to the insistent calls for democratic change that have swept
through Arab countries since Tunisians unexpectedly toppled their longtime
dictator in January.
For now the electoral
victory in Morocco remains largely symbolic. King Mohammed
VI proposed the referendum himself, but the revisions to the
Constitution it allowed ensure that he maintains nearly absolute political
power and unquestioned control over the military. And the Constitution’s
ability to bring real change to this centuries-old monarchy will largely depend
on how the text is applied to everyday politics.
But supporters of the
new Constitution argue that moving slowly may be the surest way to achieve
sustainable change, and analysts say that even baby steps may be enough to
inspire others in the region to follow suit eventually. At the least, the
events in Morocco provide a striking counterpoint to those in Egypt and
Tunisia, where leaders’ concessions appeared to work against them, emboldening
protesters.
“It’s a peaceful
revolution, and the major difference with other countries in the region is that
protesters never called for the fall of the regime,” said Mokhtar El Ghambou,
who is helping to found Rabat International University. “There was no
bloodshed. I think it shows there are two options; the first one is radical
change, the second is change with continuity.”
For some, that is a good
thing. For others, Morocco’s example is troubling, providing ammunition for
rulers and counterrevolutionaries intent on breaking the momentum for sweeping
reform that was in protesters’ favor for months.
“If the Egyptian
revolution fails to bring change, with places like Morocco in mind, there will
be a big backlash against the revolutions,” Mr. El Ghambou said.
Morocco’s evolution was
inspired by many of the same issues that birthed the revolutions in Egypt and
Tunisia.
The kingdom, on the
western edge of North Africa, has a large population of restless young people,
many of them unemployed, and the country is troubled by a level of nepotism
reminiscent of Tunisia’s and a yawning gap between rich and poor.
At first, the nation’s
reaction to the stunning news from Tunisia and Egypt tracked with those of
others in the region. Protesters took to the streets with their grievances, and
the government cracked down, sometimes violently.
But the narrative
diverged from there. Government troops beat demonstrators, but did not fire on
them, and the protesters themselves were more interested on pushing their king
toward a true constitutional monarchy than pushing him out.
Mohammed VI already had
a well of good will to draw on. He is considered forward-thinking and a gentler
leader than his father, King Hassan II. Early in his reign he took steps to
modernize the kingdom, including promoting a family law that raised the age for
women to marry and allowed them to seek a divorce.
With the rise of radical
Islam, however, the king slowed the pace of change, frustrating many of his
subjects. Over time, he was also accused of tolerating corruption and of
allowing advisers and former schoolmates to amass fortunes from state
contracts.
He began to propose
major changes again only after protests roiled major Moroccan cities this year.
He proposed the constitutional changes that went to a vote on July 1, and
pardoned scores of prisoners who the opposition said were jailed for their
political beliefs.
Under the new
provisions, which fell short of demands for a real constitutional monarchy, the
prime minister will still be appointed by the king, but will now need to be
chosen from the party with the parliamentary majority. In a change from the
past, the prime minister will be charged with appointing government ministers,
but the king still needs to approve those choices.
The constitutional
changes — and the reality that 98 percent of an unusually high turnout of
voters approved them — has left some Moroccans, especially on the left,
disillusioned.
“The king gives the
impression of giving the keys to the prime minister, while keeping a copy in
his pocket,” wrote Karim Boukhari, editor and publisher of the francophone
weekly Tel Quel. “Morocco deserves much better, and right now.”
Members of the February
20 Movement for Change, which coordinated the country’s demonstrations, have
vowed to keep up weekly protests.
“This text is not
acceptable, it was cooked up in the hallways of the palace,” said Zineb El
Rhazoui, a journalist and human rights advocate, who is active in the protest
movement. “It’s all cosmetic.”
Whether Morocco’s
example can be replicated is an open question. Relative to its neighbors, the
country was more open to reform.
Analysts said that other
monarchies, including those in the gulf, were unlikely to follow suit in good
part because their populations were both wealthier and more conservative, and
therefore less likely to agitate for democracy.
The leaders of two other
Arab countries, Jordan and Algeria, have at least suggested political reforms,
but it is unclear if they will move ahead.
The situation in Jordan
more closely mirrors Morocco’s: it is a monarchy with close ties to the United
States, and King Abdullah II has recently reshuffled his cabinet to try to
appease protesters. But analysts said regional realities might doom more
significant changes, especially as Syria descends further into chaos, with the
government unable to quell unrest despite a fierce crackdown.
“They’re closely
watching the situation in neighboring Syria, and are very worried about being
destabilized by events there,” said Muhammad Abbas Nagi of the Ahram Center for
Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, a government-financed research
center. “They’re not comfortable with what could happen if they start answering
the protesters’ calls for change.”
It is also in Jordan’s
economic interest to maintain close ties with countries like Saudi Arabia,
which balks at change in the region and sent troops into Bahrain to support the
monarchy after weeks of protests. A recent offer to consider including Jordan as
a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council has been perceived as an effort to
buttress the monarchy and keep Jordan in the fold.
But even if no country
follows Morocco’s example in the near future, the king’s ability, at least so
far, to satisfy critics and still maintain power presents an alternative for
reformers searching for new ways to wrest power from leaders who have clung to
their positions for decades..
“On one side, you have
Libya, which is exactly where Arab populations want to avoid going; on the
other, you have this Moroccan counterpoint, which showed it was possible to
absorb discontent through reforms,” said Haoues Seniguer, a professor and
researcher at Lyon’s Institute for Political Studies. “What is certain is that
some governments might be inspired by this successful strategy to diffuse
protests.”
In the end, whether
others follow Morocco’s lead may depend in part on whether the country’s
experiment turns out to be a true template for change.
One of the first tests
of the king’s commitment to reform will come after parliamentary elections,
expected this fall. Detractors will be watching closely to see whether the
elections are fair and whether he chooses as prime minister someone anxious for
reform or someone who is merely acceptable to the winning party.
For the king’s many
supporters, the changes may be imperfect, but they are the best way forward.
“People in Egypt are
still throwing rocks at each other, and we already have a new Constitution,”
said Rachid Benmami, 55, as he sat in a coffeehouse in Casablanca, Morocco’s
economic capital. “The king knows what’s good for his people,” he said,
removing an aging picture of Mohammed VI from his wallet.
“We thank God for our
king,” he said as he kissed the picture.
@ The New York Times
