September 17, 2010

NEPAL, CHINA AND INDIA : GREAT-POWER RIVALRY GROWS IN THE HIMALAYAS

[Being sandwiched between two giants might seem promising for an underdeveloped country. With skill, Nepal could play one off against the other. Instead, with peace in the balance and fears growing that both neighbours are vying to pick the next prime minister, Nepal risks being ground between their vaulting regional ambitions.]
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EARLY in September a group of Nepali newspaper editors were having dinner when, one by one, their phones started ringing. The man on the other end, whom they said was the Indian ambassador, Rakesh Sood, wanted to know whether their papers would be running stories on a sensational audio recording then doing the rounds. The recording purports to be an intercepted telephone call between a senior Maoist leader, Krishna Mahara, and an unknown man, Chinese from his accent; the two are discussing the use of $6.75m to bribe members of parliament to elect a Maoist prime minister.
A great deal about this story is murky. It has not been confirmed either by Mr Sood or Mr Mahara. The Chinese embassy has denied any involvement and the tape’s authenticity has not been established. Still, two things are clear. First, the intrigue comes at a sensitive time for Nepal’s ailing peace process, which is meant to end ten years of Maoist insurgency. United Nations’ monitoring of the process came up for renewal this week. Second, it shows that Nepal’s domestic tussles are increasingly sucking in India and China, the rival powers that surround the country. Aptly enough, just when the editors received the calls supposedly from the ambassador of one giant neighbour, they were dining with the ambassador of the other.
India has long been influential in Nepal, which it regards as a buffer against China. Roughly half of Nepal’s trade is with its southern neighbour and the country ties its currency to the Indian rupee. In contrast, China has played a low-key role in Nepal until recently. But the emergence of the Maoists as the largest party has shifted the balance, with India becoming more closely aligned with the anti-Maoist faction. The Prime Minister, Madhav Kumar Nepal, says India’s government distrusts them and wants the party to make sweeping changes to its organisation and beliefs.
Indian Ambassador Rakesh Sood 
treading gingerly in Kathmandu
Parliamentary elections in 2008 gave the Maoists 40% of members of parliament, twice as many as their nearest rival. During a brief stint in government, the Maoists cultivated closer relations with China, much to India’s alarm.
The Maoist-led coalition collapsed last year, to be replaced by an anti-Maoist one backed by India and—some think—cobbled together by it. But the new government has been unable to impose its authority. The process of integrating former Maoist fighters has stalled, along with attempts to write a new constitution. Anti-Maoists are challenging the peace agreements while parliament has been deadlocked since June over the election of a new prime minister.
Political paralysis has given rise to accusations of meddling by India. Last month, for example, after a round of voting for the new prime minister, one MP said his daughter stood to lose her scholarship in India if he voted Maoist. Senior staffs at the country’s largest newspaper group, which Indian diplomats think hostile to their country, say they have been unable to get newsprint through India and that Indian companies have been asked to withdraw advertising.
Indian diplomats say such claims are false and that they are victims of a smear. But politicians of all stripes think India is trying to micro-manage Nepal and anti-Indian sentiment runs high. Indian diplomats “swagger around like viceroys,” complains Ramesh Nath Pandey, a conservative former foreign minister.
Meanwhile the peace process is foundering, dragging both sides into the mire. Under agreements signed in 2006, the United Nations monitors the behaviour of the former combatants. But this week the Nepali government wrote to the UN secretary general, without consulting the Maoists, indicating that it wanted the army exempted from monitoring, which the Maoists reject. Although the UN mandate was renewed for four months, the ceasefire is looking ever more threadbare.
Being sandwiched between two giants might seem promising for an underdeveloped country. With skill, Nepal could play one off against the other. Instead, with peace in the balance and fears growing that both neighbours are vying to pick the next prime minister, Nepal risks being ground between their vaulting regional ambitions.
The Economist
[The Parliament has failed to elect a prime minister in seven rounds of election as parties have been unable to agree on the shape of the new government. Mr Prachanda was the front-runner in the two-way contest, but had failed to win the cross-party support he needed to form a new coalition government. ]k

Prachanda speaks at UN General Assembly in 2008
Maoist chairman, Mr Pushpa Kamal Dahal, on Friday withdrew from the ongoing prime ministerial election, paving the way for formation of a national consensus government in Nepal and ending nearly three months deadlock.

"Pushpa Kamal Dahal will withdraw from the election," a party statement jointly signed by him and UML chairman Jhala Nath Khanal stated. The statement said Dahal, who still goes by his nom de guerre Mr Prachanda ("the fierce one"), was withdrawing from the race for selecting the prime minister on the basis of a new consensus.

The Maoist, who has the largest number of lawmakers in the 601-member constituent assembly, agreed to back out during a joint meeting with CPN-UML on Friday, the Republica newspaper reported. Nepal has been without a government since June 30, when former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal stood down under intense pressure from the Maoists.

The Parliament has failed to elect a prime minister in seven rounds of election as parties have been unable to agree on the shape of the new government. Mr Prachanda was the front-runner in the two-way contest, but had failed to win the cross-party support he needed to form a new coalition government.

Nepali Congress' Ram Chandra Paudel is now only remaining candidate for the new premier. Paudel needs to garner majority of votes in parliament to get elected. Maoist vice-chair Narayan Kaji Shrestha informed that both the parties will appeal Nepali Congress to withdraw from the election for a new national consensus after the meeting.
The CPN-UML had remained neutral in earlier elections but there was an open call from a few senior leaders, including vice-chair and defence minister Bidhya Bhandari that they should vote for democratic force.
The Asian Age

[Speaking at the inaugural session of the 12th National General Convention of Nepali Congress as a guest at Khulla Manch in the Capital this evening, he argued that rather than joining the prevailing current of thought the Maoists embarked upon the new mainstream on their own. “Girija Prasad Koirala did not bring me in the mainstream politics. The peace process began with his and my joint efforts. If you think that Nepali Congress dragged in the Maoists then you are wrong.”]
By Keshav P. Koirala
KATHMANDU: UCPN-Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal said the Nepali Congress cannot take credit for bringing the former rebels to the open politics and warned of crisis if their foray into the competitive democracy is taken for surrender. He said it would be fatal if the Maoists are debarred from the contemporary politics by other parties.

Speaking at the inaugural session of the 12th National General Convention of Nepali Congress as a guest at Khulla Manch in the Capital this evening, he argued that rather than joining the prevailing current of thought the Maoists embarked upon the new mainstream on their own. “Girija Prasad Koirala did not bring me in the mainstream politics. The peace process began with his and my joint efforts. If you think that Nepali Congress dragged in the Maoists then you are wrong.”

He, who is popular with his nom de guerre Prachanda, claimed that the NC’s current slogan of 'institutionalisation of federal democratic republic' is inspired by his party.

Warning the parties that the upshots of relegation of the former rebels would be counterproductive, he said the politics cannot take pace and progress cannot be achieved if any of the Maoists, Congress or CPN-UML are turfed out.

Venting his frustration on not getting the government leadership despite being the single largest party in the Constituent Assembly which also functions as the country's Legislature-Parliament, he suspected that the Maoist party is being excluded because other party's disked its achievement. Questioning whether this was democracy, he suggested the intolerance was not on a par with BP Koirala's ideology of reconciliaton also.

Dahal witnessed a hooting from the crowd when he said the Congress did not lead him to the political mainstream and that it has been distracted from its change-seeking course despite its revolutionary history.

Pointing out the need of co-ordination and co-operation between the Maoists and the Congress, he asked the Congress activists to find out who disrupted the synergy and cordial relation between the two parties.

Hailing Girija Prasad Koirala and BP Koirala—former prime ministers and the NC presidents—as the leaders who were concerned about democracy, nationality and national sovereignty.

Nepali Congress Urged to Pull Out

NC's Ram C. Poudel with Prachanda
and former PM Sher B. Deuba
Addressing the function where thousands of Congress activists had gathered, and senior leaders and representatives of many parties were present, the former prime minister said the peace process and the constitution-drafting are the biggest challenges as well as the responsibilities of the present.

“Being the leader of the largest party, I have to take some initiatives,” said Dahal, who had opted for the country’s top executive post after Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal’s resignation, adding, “I pull out from the prime ministerial race.”

Dahal and Congress vice president Ram Chandra Paudel have failed to win the election despite seven rounds of voting. The eighth runoff is slated for September 26.

“Our party decided to withdraw (my candidacy) after consulting with another party taking neutral stance (CPN-UML),”he said, “Now, it’s your turn to discuss on the issue.”
The Himalayan Times